???? NGX Weekly Market Summary (Week Ending July 25, 2025)

The Nigerian equities market continued its bullish streak for the week ending July 25, 2025, with the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) closing at 134,452.93, up 1.99% week-on-week (+1.99% WTD), showing some deceleration compared to the previous week's +3.86% rise. Year-to-date, the index has surged 30.31%, strengthening from last week’s YTD of 27.53%. This week witnessed a positive, albeit more selective rally, with strong momentum partly offset by sector-specific weakness and some fresh profit-taking in recent high-flyers.

Market participation was robust: while total market turnover in value terms rose by 12.49%, volume declined by 13.74%, signaling larger transactions and persistent institutional interest. Activity ramped up with total trade deals up 36.28% W/W. Market breadth was solid at 1.43x, with 67 advancers versus 47 decliners out of 141 stocks with increased volume—a bullish undertone, but some caution as a third of stocks ended flat.

• Market Breadth & Trends:
  • Solid market breadth at 1.43x. 63.7% of stocks advanced, 26.3% declined, 36.3% unchanged – a broadening rally but with a sizable cohort of sidelined stocks.
  • 32 new highs and just 1 new low highlight overall bullishness, though a drop in volume for half the market suggests selectivity.
• Top Week-to-Date (WTD) Gainers:
  • THE INITIATES PLC (TIP) +46.24%, ACADEMY PRESS PLC +33.00%, NIGERIAN ENAMELWARE PLC +32.68%.
    Noteworthy: TIP with an eye-popping RSI of 90.54 (extremely overbought), suggesting an overheated rally and possible near-term mean reversion risk.
  • OANDO up +20.10% WTD, aligns with strong institutional demand and presence in both retail and institutional top traded lists — hints at broad, possibly sustained momentum.
  • Multiple top gainers showing RSI >70 and 15DMA above 50DMA sparkline crossovers, indicating prevailing bullish momentum (discussed below).
• Top Week-to-Date (WTD) Losers:
  • VETIVA S&P NIGERIA SOVEREIGN BOND ETF (VSPBONDETF) -54.29%: An extraordinary drop, likely reflecting a pricing anomaly, index restructuring, or large forced redemptions; keep an eye as such outsized ETF move is not often price-discovery related.
  • Other notable losers – OMATEK (-22.01%), NSLTECH (-19.30%), TRIPPLEG (-18.75%) – all coming off recent surges, suggesting profit-taking and fading speculative interest.
  • Despite sharp drops, none of these cross into technical "oversold” territory (RSI <30), so there may be further downside room or base-building ahead.
• Top YTD Gainers & Losers: (Key 2025 winners & stragglers)

  Stock	%ChgYTD	WTD%	Div Yield	RSI
  TIP	+545.2	+46.24	0.00	90.54
  PRESCO	+226.3	+16.54	0.44	92.35
  ABCTRANS	+273.2	-16.55	2.19	60.82
  MERGROWTH	+39.42	+20.88	0.00	91.26
  VSPBONDETF	-8.57	-54.29	0.00	46.03

• Top Week-to-Date (WTD) Gainers & Losers:

  Stock	WTD%	YTD%	Div Yield	RSI
  TIP	+46.24	+545.2	0.00	90.54
  ACADEMY	+33.00	+195.6	3.51	68.51
  ENAMELWA	+32.68	+39.90	2.33	89.52
  SOVRENINS	+28.69	+27.64	3.75	59.78
  VSPBONDETF	-54.29	-8.57	0.00	46.03

Momentum, Volume, and Hidden Insights

• Bullish momentum continues to be a dominant theme:
  • Many top gainers (TIP, ENAMELWA, MERGROWTH, PRESCO) show RSI above 85, bullish MACD crossovers, and 15DMA above 50DMA (sustained upward price action). However, such high RSIs call for prudence due to heightened risk of reversals (potential for profit taking soon).
  • OANDO—Bullish breakout confirmed by positive MACD and both retail and institutional heavy trading. The 15DMA/50DMA crossover sparkline supports trend strength. Notably, OANDO shows up as a top traded symbol for both investors, hinting at unusually broad conviction.
• Bearish momentum picks (signs of acceleration):
  • Top losers do not exhibit "oversold” RSI levels yet, but VSPBONDETF stands out with a significant drop, possibly technical rather than fundamental. It’s not a classic oversold—could turn sharply if underlying bond market structure stabilizes or regulatory actions cause a snapback rally.
  • Stocks like TRIPPLEG and NEIMETH have high RSIs (above 50) despite sharp weekly falls, indicating losses after previous overbought extensions—these might not yet be true value/rebound opportunities.
• Turnover insights:
  • Despite a 12.49% jump in total trade value, volume dropped 13.74%—larger trade sizes, more institutional action, and some retail fatigue. Possibly a shift towards high-value blue chips and away from speculative small-cap churn.
  • Trade deals rose sharply by 36.28%, suggesting increased market engagement—aligns with breadth figures.
• Unusual Volume Observation:
  • On both the institutional and retail sides, stocks like OANDO and OKOMUOIL appear, suggesting large interest from both sophisticated and general investors. These may present supportive liquidity for further moves.
  • Conversely, ACCESSCORP is heavily traded by both groups but up only modestly, hinting at ongoing accumulation or potential for breakout should sentiment shift.
• Dividend Yield Overlay:
  • None of the top WTD and YTD gainers are among the very high-yielding dividend stocks, indicating market upside is driven more by growth/momentum than value hunting this week. However, watch SOVRENINS and CORNERST with respectable yields (above 3%) and positive trends for possible dual dividend/momentum plays.

Market Activity & Trades Analysis

• Retail vs Institutional Pattern:
  • Institutions accounted for 39.75% of trade count but controlled a commanding 67.78% of volumes and 89.61% of value. This signals that the "smart money” was setting the tone—especially in high value blue chips and index heavyweights.
  • Retails had more trades by count (60.25%), but these were small in size/value, reinforcing the bifurcation between speculative and core market segments.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional):
  • OKOMUOIL, ACCESSCORP, OANDO, ZENITHBANK, ARADEL—the usual suspects in blue chips/banking and leading momentum oil stocks.
  • OANDO’s presence in both retail and institutional top 5 hints at a possible emerging leadership role and liquidity hoover.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Retail):
  • ACCESSCORP, OKOMUOIL, GTCO, OANDO, UBA—retail still flocking to top-tier banks for liquidity, suggesting continued faith in financials.
  • ACCESSCORP and OKOMUOIL overlap for both investor types – watch for sustained momentum especially if institutional interest continues.

Indexes: Weekly & YTD Performance — Sector Heatmap

• Sector Outperformance:
  • Insurance (+4.48% WTD, +14.2% YTD) was the best performer for the week, while Growth (+3.95%), Value (+3.64%), and Islamic Index (+3.28%, +54.2% YTD!) followed close behind.
  • NGX Lotus Islamic Index stands out with the highest YTD at 54.23%, signaling strong demand for sharia-compliant stocks, likely driven by both local and cross-market (GCC/EM-focused) flows.
  • Bottom of the chart: NGXOILGAS underperformed with just +0.97% WTD and -9.69% YTD, while NGXASEM remains negative YTD (-8.67%), confirming persistent small cap/alternative board malaise.
  • PENSION INDEXES remain healthy: +1.65% and +1.68% (WTD), and robust 34%+ YTD returns, showing persistent institutional asset allocation to equities.
• FX Market:
  • Naira fell 0.06% W/W to close at 1531/USD. Not a major stress, but could remain a headwind for importers and encourage export-focused stocks.

Comparative Insights & Actionable Ideas

• Notable Stock Overlaps: TIP, MERGROWTH and PRESCO repeatedly appear in both top YTD and WTD gainers tables, confirming strong momentum and making them candidates for trailing-stop strategies if already held.
• High RSI Watchlist: TIP (90.5), ENAMELWA (89.5), PRESCO (92.4), MERGROWTH (91.3) – caution that these are at extreme momentum levels; prudent investors should expect pullbacks or consider scaling in, rather than entering after a sharp rally.
• Bullish Chart Patterns: Confirmed by 15DMA > 50DMA (sparkline trending up) and positive MACD Histogram – momentum-focused traders can trail stops or look for pullbacks towards 15DMA for tactical entries.
• Bearish Setups: Many WTD losers did not get to classic "RSI oversold” (RSI < 30), suggesting more downside potential if volumes don’t bounce.
• Institutional Buying: Large sizes in oil, banks, and select agri-businesses suggest defensive positioning and hedging for FX/Naira risk.
• Dividend Play: No high-yield names among pure top gainers, but SOVRENINS and CORNERST have yields above 3% with positive technicals—a sweet spot for conservative traders.
• Caution: Some names with eye-watering YTD and WTD returns (e.g., TIP, MERGROWTH) but negligible dividend yield may attract speculative rotations that fade quickly in low-liquidity pullbacks.

?? Strategies & Suggestions for Traders

• Momentum names (TIP, PRESCO, ENAMELWA, MERGROWTH, OANDO) are extended and likely to remain volatile – use trailing stops and consider partial profit-taking or staggered entries.
• Look for dips in high-liquidity/dual investor darlings—e.g. stocks favored by both retail/institutional (OANDO, OKOMUOIL, ACCESSCORP)—for tactical entry, especially if volumes remain strong.
• Income seekers: Focus on insurers/banks with positive trends and 3-6% yield (e.g., SOVRENINS, CORNERST).
• ETF/Index-based investors: Watch for anomalous moves like in VSPBONDETF—potential for mean reversion snapbacks but only after stabilizing news.
• Monitor breadth and liquidity: If breadth narrows and volume dries up, consider hedging or raising cash on top gainers.

Market moves may remain fast as the summer winds down; stick with liquidity, know your risk tolerance, and don’t chase overly extended moves. Happy trading!