NGX Market Summary: Monday, December 1, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) kicked off the week with a mild pullback, closing at 143,520.53—down -0.22% for the day but still up an impressive +38.80% year-to-date. Despite the headline dip, market activity was lively with volume rising +11% vs. the last session; turnover also ticked higher by +3.14% to N13.13B. However, advancers trailed decliners (23 vs. 30), reflecting cautious underlying sentiment even as select names rode strong momentum, notable among them was NCR and STANBICETF30—all featured in both today's and YTD gainers. Uneven sectoral flows and drastic spikes in trading volumes mark today as one of subtle rotation with pockets of strong bullish and bearish energy—setting up potentially interesting reversals or breakouts ahead.

Key Trends in Market Breadth

• Market Breadth: Remained negative at 0.77x (23 advancers, 30 decliners).
  Interpretation: Bears edged out bulls despite increased market activity, indicating a market in consolidation with selective speculative surges.
• Volume Jump: Volume rose to 543.87M shares (+11.4% vs. previous day). Up volume in 71 stocks vs. down in 70 suggests sector-specific rebalancing rather than outright risk-on/risk-off.
• Turnover Trend: Turnover increased by 3.14% to N13.13B, confirming robust interest despite negative ASI move.

Top Gainers & Losers: Noteworthy Movers

• NCR: Enters rarefied territory with RSI at 99.6, indicative of extreme momentum. YTD gain is a staggering +992%.
• STANBICETF30: On back-to-back runs, riding top of 5D/YTD gainers with RSI 84.8. Now up +212% YTD and +30.9% in the last five sessions—classic momentum play.
• GREENWETF: Continues free-fall, now down -46.9% YTD and -10% today, plus an extremely oversold RSI (27.1) raises possibility of technical bounce.
• CHAMPION: Price crossed above 15DMA, supported by unusual volume and high RSI increase; potential breakout candidate.

Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Up While Breadth Weakens: Capital flows are tilting toward select bets—indicative of sector rotation and a hunt for relative strength winners.
• Unusual Volume: WEMABANK (vol up +797%!), CUSTODIAN (+1064%), CHAMPION (+134%). Price action in WEMABANK is slightly negative despite huge volume—potential distribution or prepping for broader move?
• Momentum/Trend Overlaps: NCR & STANBICETF30 dominate both daily and YTD top gainer tables, signaling continued institutional chase for outperformers.
  • Bullish Momentum Table: CHAMPION, MECURE, AIICO, VITAFOAM have crossed above their 15DMA, supported by rising volume and, in some cases, high RSI.
  • Bearish Momentum Table: CORNERST, RTBRISCOE, GREENWETF all feature weak RSI and are seeing breakdowns below 15DMA—extended downside possible.
• RSI Extremes: Stocks with RSI >90 (NCR, STANBICETF30) and <30 (GREENWETF) suggest near-term correction or reversal watch.
• Possible Short-term Trades:
  • MECURE (RSI 72.5, MACD positive, above 15DMA/50DMA cross): Momentum could continue but watch for parabolic reversal.
  • GREENWETF (RSI 27.1): Potential dead-cat bounce scenario for risk-tolerant short-term traders.

Contrarian Signals

Sector Heatmap & Technical Overview

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Plays

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.2% institutional trade value share (N1.37B out of N6.8B top 5) with Over 22.8M shares; stock flat but heavy block trades—possible stealth accumulation or distribution.
• ACCESSCORP: >10% institutional share. Despite high volumes and block trades, price is dormant. Prepping for a directional move?
• In both banking and diversified plays, institutions are far more dominant—top 5 institutional stocks account for 87.5% of total traded value vs. just 12.5% for retail.

YTD Top Gainers and Losers: (For Monday Recap & Context)

Trade Activity Summary: Retail vs Institutional Dynamics

• Institutional Investors: 1,567 trades (34.9%), but accounted for 76.3% of total volume and a whopping 87.6% of gross value. Indicates block trade domination (liquidity concentration).
• Retail Investors: 27,527 trades (65.1%)—active, but in smaller ticket sizes, only 23.7% of volume and 12.5% of value.

• Patterns/Correlation: Name overlap between top five for retail and institutional trades (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, UBA) hints at heightened liquidity and visibility—prime targets for both prop and retail traders. Flat to slightly lower prices in these names suggest digestion/consolidation and possible hint toward "wait and see" as institutions accumulate or distribute.
• WEMABANK & CUSTODIAN: Unusually high volumes but with little price movement—potential stealth positioning or order book games.

Opportunities & Suggestions for Traders

• Bullish Breakouts: Focus on names above 15DMA with rising volume and/or RSI: CHAMPION, AIICO, LINKASSURE, VITAFOAM. Tighten stops if already long due to overbought risk in some cases.
• Potential Reversals: Follow oversold losers for technical bounces (esp. GREENWETF, RTBRISCOE—down big, RSI sub-30 or low 40s).
• Contrarian Watch: Heavily overbought names (NCR, STANBICETF30) at risk for profit-taking—consider trailing stops or gradual scaling out if long.
• Defensive Dividend Plays: VITAFOAM stands out (7% yield, low beta, bullish technicals), can act as safe haven alongside momentum.
• Sector Rotation: Watch for switches out of overextended ETFs and some cyclical/loss leaders and into defensive and insurance.

Previous Week Recap (Aggregate Trend)

Markets were on a strong uptrend last week, with ASI consolidating above the 143,000 zone, continued sectoral leadership from ETFs and diversified industrials, and periodic rallies in insurance and select consumer stocks. Turnover and volume were steadily rising, indicating ongoing institutional participation. The emergence of heavy volume spikes in underloved names (CUSTODIAN, WEMABANK) last week may precede the rotation seen in today's session.