NGX Daily Market Summary – Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Market Recap:
The Nigerian equity market ticked lower today with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) -0.33% to close at 147,427.95, despite robust trading activity: turnover surged by 58.74% over Monday to ₦20.59 billion and volumes jumped to 851.31 million shares (vs 535.03M yesterday). While market breadth remained negative, with more decliners than advancers (28 up vs 37 down; breadth ratio 0.76x), the trading session was dominated by outsized ETF moves, select profit-taking, and waves of institutional activity. Top gainer was MERISTEM VALUE ETF (+10.0%), hitting overbought RSI territory, while NEWGOLD ETF led the losers at -10.2%. The banking and ETF sectors remained heavily traded and under close scrutiny from both institutional and retail investors.

Market Breadth & Trading Trends

• Turnover: Value traded up 58.74% to ₦20.59B, led by ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, and GTCO. Institutional trades dominated: 92.10% of value and 85.77% of volume despite making up just 37.18% of trade count.
• Market Breadth: More stocks declined than advanced (adv/dec: 28/37; breadth 0.76x), with 73 stocks seeing higher volumes and 69 lower—showing sectoral rotation and stock-specific moves.
• Unusual Volume Alerts: CORNERSTONE INSURANCE led with a 6,354% spike in volume, followed by ACCESSCORP (+303%) and FCMB (+209%). Watch for follow-through on unusually active stocks; often these foreshadow impending volatility or a sentiment shift.

Top Gainers & Losers: YTD Leaders & Laggards

Momentum Analysis

• Bullish Momentum Stocks:
  • VETGOODS ETF (RSI 43.3): Price crossed above 15DMA; leading gainer today after lagging YTD. Potential momentum breakout confirmed by MACD.
  • MERISTEM Value, MERISTEM Growth, VETINDETF: All with strong positive MACD histograms, prices staying above both 15/50 DMA, and RSI above 70 (overbought) on MERVALUE—suggesting overextension; caution on chasing rallies.
• Bearish Momentum Stocks:
  • AUSTIN LAZ (RSI 17.4): Deep in oversold, -10% move, multiple timeframe momentum negative—ripe for a technical bounce if volume picks up.
  • PRESTIGE, NEWGOLD ETF: Both slipped below 15 DMA, negative MACD, signaling caution.

Contrarian Signals

• GREENWICH ASSET ETF: Despite YTD return -38.2%, showed a +10% pop today with RSI 37—possible short squeeze or reversal play, but overall remains risky unless positive trend repeats.
• VETGOODS ETF: Today's 10% gain and bullish MACD comes after a mixed YTD (+117%) but recent pullback; watch for failed rallies as ETF volatility surges.
• AUSTIN LAZ: Down -10% today but still positive YTD; extremely low RSI (17.4); may attract bargain hunters if sell-off exhausts.

Sector Heatmap / Institutional & Retail Activity

Note: Institutional clustering observed in Access Holdings (ACCESSCORP), ZENITHBANK, and GTCO—each with a strong correlation between high trade value, unusual volume, and top institutional trades. This is indicative of block trades or smart money making sizable bets/adjustments.

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Stock Opportunities

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ACCESSCORP: Huge institutional trade volumes (18.7% of institutional value, 284 institutional trades for 177M shares). Institutional clustering combined with unusual volume is a classic flag for significant portfolio rebalancing.
• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional value trades. Focus here suggests banking sector rotations and/or block trades—often seen before earnings or regulatory changes.

Technical Snapshots

• 15DMA/50DMA crossovers:
  • MERVALUE ETF: Prices well above both moving averages, RSI > 90—likely to draw short-term traders but momentum chase risk is high.
  • LINKASSURE, VETGOODS: Both recently cleared their 15DMA; bullish but watch for overbought signals.
  Bears (Below 15DMA):
  • NEWGOLD ETF, PRESTIGE, FTNCOCOA, GUINEAINS, JULIUS BERGER: Negative crossovers, soft MACD—potential short setups if broader market sentiment remains weak.

YTD Gainers & Losers Table (Top 5 each)

*Note: Some "losers" have positive YTD due to short-term volatility spikes.

Market Activity / Trading Patterns: Retail vs Institutional

• Institutions: Only 37.18% of trade count, but 85.77% of volume and 92.10% of value—a day of big block trades and portfolio management. Most activity seen in ACCESSCORP, GTCO, ZENITHBANK, and MTNN (core financials/telecoms).
• Retail: 62.82% of trades but just 14.23% of volume and 7.90% of value. Retail remains active in ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, MTNN, and GTCO, but institutions are setting price direction.
• Overlap: ACCESSCORP and ZENITHBANK are top for both groups—these are the market's current "control points."
• Correlation: Unusual volume in ACCESSCORP and FCMB coincides with increased institutional buy/sell, hinting at possible end-of-year portfolio rebalancing or index-related flows.

Trader Opportunities / Cautions

• Momentum traders should note the crowding in ETFs—their moves are attracting short-term bids, but overbought signals (RSI > 70 on MERVALUE) raise reversal risk. Take profits or use tighter stops.
• Bargain hunters: Stalk names like AUSTIN LAZ and PRESTIGE (deep oversold), but only with volume confirmation.
• Dividend/income seekers: Watch LINKASSURE and LIVESTOCK FEEDS for low beta/high yield setups—though technicals are mixed.
• Instituional focus: Banking names remain liquidity hubs—perfect for block trade or pair-trading strategies. Monitor for further clustering, especially on ACCESSCORP and ZENITHBANK.
• ETF traders: Tight stops are wise after today's explosive reversals—volatility is on the rise.

Hidden Insights & Summary

• ETF Leadership: ETFs not only swept the podium for top daily and YTD gains but also drew institutional flows—signaling shifting strategy among large AUM investors who are using these as proxies for sectoral exposure.
• Technicals diverging from fundamentals: Some high yield or "defensive" stocks are in technical downtrends (e.g., PRESTIGE)—be wary of "yield traps."
• Volume spikes in ACCESSCORP, CORNERSTONE, and FCMB together with increased institutional activity are historically precursors to sustained moves or regime changes—these should be closely monitored for confirmation signals in the days ahead.

Disclaimer: This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your due diligence before acting on market data.