NGX Market Wrap – Tuesday, December 16, 2025

The Nigerian equities market delivered a resilient session today, with the NGX All Share Index narrowly climbing by 0.01% to close at 149,437.88. While this headline gain masks undercurrents of volatility, notably in sector rotations and trade activity, it extends the remarkable Year-To-Date (YTD) index return to 44.85%. Market turnover soared by 120.17% to ₦17.32 billion against yesterday’s ₦7.87 billion. Volume activity was supercharged, with over 849 million shares traded (up 174%), thanks to a handful of high-conviction, block trades. Market breadth was positive at 1.29x, as advancers (36) outpaced decliners (28), though deeper scan reveals selective institutional clustering and rotational sector flows. Several stocks flashed critical technical signals—both momentum-driven and contrarian—amid these robust market dynamics.

Market Breadth & Trends

• Advancers outnumbered decliners (36 vs 28) with market breadth at 1.29x, signaling mildly bullish but selective participation.
• Turnover and volume surged: 120.17% value increase as block trades in select large caps dominated flows.
• Listed companies saw split momentum: 67 with volume up, 74 with volume down—suggesting rotation and profit-taking.

Top 5 Gainers & Losers

• Momentum standouts: ALEX, GUINNESS, and MECURE all posted double-digit surges with overbought RSI readings (all above 90), flagging possible overextension. MACD for GUINNESS and MECURE confirms robust bullishness.
• Decliners: STANBICETF30 hit limit-down on large volume (10%), signaling an ETF outflow or rebalancing event. HMCALL and LIVINGTRUST both continue YTD downtrends.

Key Insights & Predictions

• Implications of Surging Turnover:
  • The sharp increase in turnover (+120.17%) is primarily institutional in nature (over 83% of volume and 91% of value handled by institutional investors today). High-volume block trades in financials and select consumer stocks show large investor repositioning, likely ahead of year-end window dressing.
  • When institutions dominate liquidity like this, retail traders should be cautious of sudden pivots or "fake out" breakouts.
• Advancers/Decliners: The breadth is positive but only modest; overall strength is concentrated in a few high-flying (and now technically overbought) names.
• Unusual Volume:
  • ACCESSCORP (Access Bank): Saw a volume spike of 633% above its 90-day average(!) but recorded no price gain. This hints at heavy institutional cross-deals or accumulation/distribution at current levels—watch for a breakout or breakdown.
  • STERLINGNG (+543% vol) and FCMB (+238% vol): Both experienced large volumes with only small price movement—signals possible repositioning or early accumulation.
  • AIICO posted an impressive volume surge with a 2.90% gain—volume confirmation to price uptrend.
• Momentum, RSI, and Moving Averages:
  • Bullish Momentum (15DMA cross above): LOTUSHAL15 ETF, SUNUASSUR, MAYBAKER, CUSTODIAN, FIDELITYBK and REGALINS all signaled buying pressure. Both MAYBAKER and FIDELITYBK have attractive dividend yields (3.75%, 5.48%)—making them potential value + momentum plays.
  • Bearish Momentum (15DMA cross below): FCMB, GTCO, JAIZBANK, UCAP, NEM, CHAMPION, LIVINGTRUST, VERITASKAP all flagged "sell" pressure. FCMB's 238% unusual vol combined with a fresh 15DMA breakdown demands extra caution—this often precedes sharp moves.
  • RSI Extremes: Most YTD leaders (GUINNESS, ALEX, MECURE) are now technically overbought with RSI >90, implying caution for trend chasers in the short term.
• YTD Gainers vs Top Momentum:
  • GUINNESS, MECURE, ALEX are both YTD top 5 and on the daily gainers list, confirming strong momentum. RSI and MACD suggest the moves could be extended but these are now highly stretched—watch for cooling-off.
  • LIVINGTRUST is both a top YTD loser and on today's biggest losers list as well as a fresh bearish signal (15DMA cross & RSI near 50)—a clear sign to avoid or watch for reversal bottoming.
• Divergences & Contrarian Signals:
  • Some stocks with historically low beta and high dividend yield show up on bullish tables (e.g., CUSTODIAN)—this suggests rotation towards defensive, yield-oriented sectors as rallies mature.

Contrarian Signals & Divergences

• CHAMPION Brew (CHAMPION): Despite printing an RSI of 54.4 (neutral) and a bullish MACD setup, it is -9.8% YTD and now triggered a bearish 15DMA breakdown. Momentum chasers may want to tread carefully, as conflicting signals often precede significant trend changes or extended whipsawing.
• FCMB: Enormous volume spike but price fell (-1.85%) and crossed below 15DMA, while its EPS and PE remain attractive. This divergence could be a shakeout or unresolved battle between bulls and bears.
• LIVINGTRUST: Technicals are weak; it's a YTD loser, broke below 15DMA, and is a daily worst performer—may offer a value-trap or reversal play, but only for nimble traders.
• STANBICETF30: Massive negative price action (-10%) but still up year-to-date, and RSI has not reached oversold levels, raising the risk of further ETF outflows.

Sector Heatmap & Technical Trends

Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Yield Opportunities

Institutional Clustering & Flow Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Today drove 20.17% of institutional trade value, with institutions accounting for 1.41% of all volume—concentration this high can indicate upcoming strategic positioning or potential outsize moves.
• ACCESSCORP: Colossal 385M shares (over 41.6% of institutional trades) points to intense institutional cross-dealing or iceberg orders in progress.
• FIRSTHOLDCO: Showed up in both unusual volume, retail, and institutional most traded—evidence of broad-based interest and possible accumulation.

Dividend Yield Stocks in Momentum Tables

• REGALINS (6.52% yield) and FIDELITYBK (5.48% yield) appear on today's bullish momentum stocks—suggesting that investors are rotating into high yielders with improving technical signals, likely in search of defensive havens amid market highs.
• Implication: These can be attractive for both dividend seekers and short-term traders chasing breakout confirmation, but caution is advised on potential near-term overbought signals.

Trading Guidance & Opportunities

• Momentum Watch: Consider trailing stops on high-flying names (ALEX, GUINNESS, MECURE) given overbought RSI and rapid price acceleration. Look for rotational plays into high-dividend stocks showing fresh bullish momentum (REGALINS, FIDELITYBK).
• Unusual Volume: Monitor ACCESSCORP, FCMB, and STERLINGNG for follow-through or reversal after today’s outsized volumes—these setups often precede major technical moves.
• Bearish Momentum Outliers: Stay cautious on stocks crossing below 15DMA, especially if coupled with volume spikes (FCMB and CHAMPION are prime examples).
• Contrarian Swing: The mix of overbought leaders and defensive breakouts may mark the start of "stealth rotation"—watch for sector leadership changes.
• Pocket of Value: Stocks like CUSTODIAN blending low beta, rising technicals and dividend profile could provide resilient outperformance amid choppy trading.

Top 5 YTD Gainers & Losers (YTD)

• YTD gainers (GUINNESS, MECURE, SIAMLETF40) are now technically overheated (RSI >90), increasing the likelihood of near-term corrections or sideways consolidation.
• On the losers side, note that several (HMCALL, LIVINGTRUST) also appeared as today's worst performers—the trend is persistent and not yet showing clear reversal signs.

Market Trade & Flow Summary

• Institutional investors dominated activity—handling 91.10% of the value and 83.18% of volume, but only 37.17% of trade count, indicating preference for large, less frequent block trades. Retail traders comprised 62.83% of trades but only 8.9% of value: retail behaviour favored smaller and more speculative plays.
• Top 5 Institutional Traded: ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, MTNN, FIRSTHOLDCO, ARADEL. Among these, ACCESSCORP and FIRSTHOLDCO stand out by also showing up in unusual volume, reaffirming their centrality to both institutional and retail flows today.
• Top 5 Retail Traded: MTNN, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, AIICO. Of note—AIICO and ACCESSCORP are magnet stocks for both classes of investors and also surfaced on "unusual volume" lists.
• Insight: Stocks attracting both institutional and retail interest, especially with abnormal volume (ACCESSCORP, AIICO), are likely to remain volatile and can be good candidates for short-term trades—but risk (whipsaw) is elevated.
• Pattern: Financial sector remains disproportionately represented in high-flow segments—expect continued leadership and possible rotation within this group.

Bottom Line: Nigeria’s equity market maintains upward momentum, but breadth is narrowing and leader stock signals have grown exuberant, with multiple technical overbought and high-momentum divergences. Defensive yield plays and institutional block trades are on the rise. Active traders should watch for mean reversion and be prepared for increased volatility, while longer-term investors may consider rotating into high-dividend, low-beta opportunities showing new technical strength.