NGX Daily Market Summary – Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Market Recap: The Nigerian equities market exhibited resilience today as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) advanced by 0.56% to close at 114,017.48, extending its Year-to-Date (YTD) return to 11.13%. Despite the positive index reading, total traded volume declined sharply by -31.36% to 440.49M shares, while market turnover also pulled back to ₦12.93B. Market breadth was balanced at 1.03x (33 advancers to 32 decliners), indicating mixed sentiment, yet strong pockets of bullish activity were evident in certain sectors. Notably, institutional investors commanded a whopping 86.37% of trade value, signaling significant block trades in select names.

Market Breadth and Notable Trends

• Balanced Breadth: Advancers (33) outpaced decliners (32) by just one, with overall market breadth at 1.03x, illustrating a cautiously optimistic yet mixed market undertone.
• Turnover Drop: The -31.36% drop in turnover—amid a rising index—suggests the current rally is running on thinner volumes. This could indicate profit-taking or a pause by larger players ahead of clearer market direction.
• Pockets of Strength: 57 stocks saw volume increases versus the previous session, but a larger cohort—82 stocks—traded lower volumes, supporting the selective nature of market appetite.

Top Gainers & Losers (1 Day)

Stocks with strong price momentum led market action, with healthcare and transport names featuring heavily among today’s gainers.

• FIDSON (+9.91%, RSI: 95.00): Massive upward momentum with an extremely overbought RSI signals caution for new long entries and a trigger for profit-taking. However, strong bullish signals remain as 15DMA > 50DMA and a positive MACD cross.
• BERGER (+9.98%, RSI: 62.29): Fresh bullish momentum supported by strong RSI gains, reinforcing a sector-wide rotation into mid-cap industrials and paints.
• GREENWETF (-9.99%, RSI: 28.72): Deeply oversold with both price and momentum indicators in bearish territory. Cautious investors might eye a technical bounce, but trend is negative.
• NCR (-7.09%, RSI: 0.11): Near-record low RSI underlines capitulation selling — an oversold extreme, but no reversal confirmed yet.

YTD Top Gainers & Losers (Table)

Momentum Tables – Bullish & Bearish Signals

Stocks with Bullish Momentum (Price > 15DMA)

Stocks with Bearish Momentum (Price < 15DMA)

• Multiple YTD Gainers (ABCTRANS, FIDSON, BETAGLAS) are also among today’s top momentum stocks, confirming their extended leadership.
• Bullish momentum is most decisive for FIDSON (RSI 95) — extremely overbought; traders should trail stops closely. Watch for reversals as momentum fades.
• Bearish stocks include several high-dividend names (NESTLE, MBENEFIT); potential value traps if dividends are not sustainable alongside declining prices.

Unusual Volume Alerts

• OANDO saw +138.85% surge in volume (to 9.91M vs. 4.15M 90D avg), alongside a 6.32% gain—bullish confirmation on heavy volume.
• FCMB (+161.20%) and JAPAULGOLD (+155.35%) also experienced more than double their average volumes, suggesting accumulation phases or news-driven activity.
• CWG (-2.12% on +160.48% volume) shows risk of further downside as high volume comes with falling price—indicative of strong selling interest.

Contrarian Signals: Hidden Opportunities

• MERVALUE (+75 RSI, -41.4% YTD): High RSI in deep YTD loss territory—suggests an impending bounce or relief rally, but trend is negative. Contrarians could watch for reversal candles near key support.
• NCR (RSI 0.1, high dividend yield 61.2%): Extreme oversold, may prompt a technical bounce. But the sustainability of such a high yield is questionable.
• NESTLE (99.2 RSI, +71% YTD, 4.3% DivY)—Overbought and due for some cooling off, but the long-term trend remains solid.

Sector Heatmap & Institutional Activity Table

*Institutional Activity: "Top 5 by trade value share."

• ZENITHBANK: Commands 20.17% of total institutional trade value—evidence of big block moves.
• Retail/institutional trade split: Although retail trade dominated by deal count (65%), institutional investors accounted for 86.37% of trade value, showing institutions are moving the market in a few select names.

Dividend–Beta Matrix: Hunt for Defensive, Yielding Plays

Defensive yielders (beta <1 and div. yield >4%) are rare; ROYALEX and NESTLE offer lower market risk with attractive payouts, while MBENEFIT presents higher beta (risk) with decent yield but possible value trap tendencies.

Actionable Insights & Takeaways

• Momentum caution: FIDSON’s 95 RSI (~extreme overbought) and NESTLE’s 99 RSI suggest profit-taking could occur any time—maintain trailing stops if long.
• Technicals to monitor: Many laggard stocks have become extremely oversold (NCR, GREENWETF), but it’s best to look for reversal signals rather than bottom-fish too early.
• Unusual volumes: OANDO, FCMB, and ELLAHLAKES see aggressive buying—if volumes stay elevated with price rising, these could extend gains.
• Institutional clusters: ZENITHBANK’s consistent large block trades affirm its bellwether bank status—track for leadership clues.
• Dividends + Momentum: Several high-yielding names (UCAP, ROYALEX, NESTLE) have bullish signals—combining yield and positive momentum is rare and potentially lucrative.

Market Activity and Trade Summary Insights

• Institutional vs. Retail: Retail investors accounted for 65% of trade count but just 13.6% of trade value; institutions did fewer but much larger trades, focusing capital in key names like ZENITHBANK (20.17%), ACCESSCORP (4.32%), UBA (8.45%), MTNN (9.34%).
• Top traded stocks:
  • By institutions: ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, UBA, MTNN.
  • By retail: ACCESSCORP, OANDO, UBA, ZENITHBANK, MTNN.
  Heavy overlap in bank stocks (ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, GTCO) and MTNN shows both investor groups are gravitating to liquidity and stability, possibly for risk mitigation.
• Correlation alerts: Top institutional and retail trades match top beta-weighted, high liquidity stocks, which often set the broader market’s tone. Watch for leadership changes here for overall sentiment shifts.

Trader Tips & Cautions

• Trend chasers: Trailing stops recommended on stocks with extreme RSI (FIDSON, NESTLE). Prepare for pullbacks in overheated names.
• Value pickers: Watch for reversal candles in deep losers with oversold RSI (NCR, GREENWETF), but avoid catching falling knives in funds without real signs of accumulation.
• Yield hunters: Diversify with select high-dividend, low-beta stocks (ROYALEX, UCAP) — especially those confirmed by positive momentum signals.
• Rotation alert: Note sector rotation into industrials and logistics (BERGER, CAVERTON), and keep an eye on volume and momentum persistence in these themes.

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