NGX Weekly Market Recap: Week Ending June 13, 2025

The Nigerian Stock Exchange delivered a cautiously upbeat performance this week, with the All Share Index (ASI) closing at 115,429.54 (+0.53% week-on-week), marginally advancing from last week's 2.31% gain. Year-to-date, the ASI ticks higher at 11.87% versus last week's 11.08%. Despite lighter overall activity—market turnover and volume both fell sharply (-43.00% and -44.49%, respectively)—investor sentiment remained positive as market breadth improved (advancers outpaced decliners, ratio 1.39x).

Volatility was heightened in individual equities, with a marked divergence between top gainers and losers. Activity patterns also differed across investor classes, revealing notable institutional concentration in a few high-impact stocks, while retail trades broadened into technology and banking sectors. Notably, the naira rallied sharply (+2.29%) against the dollar, providing a macro tailwind for equities with local cost structures.

Key Trends & Market Breadth

• Market Breadth Ratio: 1.39x, with 61 advancers and 44 decliners, reflecting strong bullish breadth (58.33% advancers, only 24.44% decliners).
• Volume Trends: Despite falling exchange-wide volume, 136 stocks saw increasing turnover (vs. 130 down), suggesting a rotation into select equities rather than broad-based liquidation.
• Momentum Breakouts: 20 new highs vs. 4 new lows—clear evidence of emergent bullish momentum, especially in mid- and small-caps.

Top Weekly Gainers

Top Weekly Losers

Notable Patterns, Overlaps, and Momentum Insights

• Momentum Standouts:
  • Bullish Momentum:
    • FIDSON HEALTHCARE (RSI: 96.85, strong MACD, 15DMA > 50DMA): very overbought, up 20.75% WTD, 143.81% YTD. Caution: may attract profit-taking soon.
    • ELLAH LAKES, BERGER PAINTS, CUSTODIAN, OANDO, CADBURY (All with RSI > 70): Marked bullish momentum, especially as their 15DMA exceeds 50DMA—potential continuation if market sentiment holds.
  • Bearish Momentum:
    • CONOIL PLC (RSI: 0.04, negative MACD, 15DMA < 50DMA), ENAMELWARE, NCR (RSI: 1.53 and 0.08 respectively): Extreme oversold conditions, signaling either severe selling climax or possible dead-cat bounce setups.
    • GREENWICH ASSET (RSI: 23.33) is now deeply oversold; watch for quick rallies on short covering.
• Unusual Volume:
  • OANDO: Volume exploded to 15.2M (normal 90D avg: ~4.3M, up 254%!), backed by institutional surge. Stock up 16.26% WTD, at RSI 75.85, confirming strong bullish interest.
  • ZENITHBANK, GTCO: Both saw institutional/retail flows, indicating broad sector rotation in big banks with moderate upward bias (mid-60s RSI levels).
• Dividend Yield Outliers:
  • NCR: Enormously high div yield at 61.22%, but trapped in a bearish pattern (RSI: 0.08).
  • CAVERTON: Healthy div yield 5.52% and massive price momentum.
• YTD Overlaps:
  • FIDSON, CAVERTON, ABCTRANS, BERGER, ELLAHLAKES all doubling as top weekly gainers and YTD gainers—a strong, persistent momentum theme.

Indexes Overview: Weekly and YTD Movement

• Sector Leadership: Growth (+3.11%) and Premium (+2.32%) outperformed, while Consumer Goods (-1.21%) and Banking (-0.27%) lagged. Oil & Gas rebounded for the week, yet remains deeply negative YTD (-12.39%).
• Yearly Standouts: Consumer Goods sector still king YTD (+42.28%) despite short-term pullback. Pension Broad being favored by institutional flows is notable (+14.38% YTD).
• Hidden Risks: Oil & Gas volatility; last week's rally could mark a short-term inflection, but structural headwinds remain (macro, FX, subsidy).

Opportunities & Cautions for Traders

• Momentum Buys: Key stocks in overbought conditions like FIDSON, ELLAHLAKES, BERGER, CUSTODIAN, OANDO and CADBURY might continue to outperform but are at risk of sharp reversals—buy the dip, not the rip.
• High Dividend Value: For income-oriented investors, look for mid-risk stocks like CAVERTON, ROYALEX, UBA, ZENITHBANK—those sustaining high yields with positive momentum. Avoid "value traps” where yield is high due to falling prices (e.g., NCR).
• Cautious Rotation: Banking stocks are showing mixed signs—modest YTD gains, neutral RSI, and inconsistent volume. Favor strong banks with rising institutional interest.
• Oversold Bounce Candidates: ENAMELWARE, GREENWICH ASSET & NCR—all with sub-30 RSI—could be in line for technical retracement bounces. Strict stop-losses essential.
• Volume Anomalies: Explosive volume in OANDO (+254% vs avg), and in select banks, could preface continued action—watch for follow-through or reversal next week.
• Macro Insight: With the naira staging a notable recovery (+2.29%), businesses less exposed to forex losses (consumer, tech, industrials) may attract further institutional flows.
• Turnover Caution: The sharp drop in overall market turnover may signal institutional caution or seasonal lull—traders beware potential for "air pockets” and illiquidity in laggard names.

Summary Table: Year-To-Date (YTD) Top 5 Gainers and Losers

Summary Table: Week-To-Date (WTD) Top 5 Gainers and Losers

• Notable Overlaps: FIDSON, ELLAHLAKES, CAVERTON repeat on both WTD and YTD leaderboards, confirming persistent market momentum in these names.
• Loser-to-Gainer Swings: NNFM stands out with a negative WTD but a stellar positive YTD (156.38%), suggesting sharp short-term correction after extended upside—potential swing opportunities.
• Bearish Risk: CONOIL, GREENWETF, MERVALUE—all deeply negative WTD and YTD, in multi-week downtrends.

Market Activity & Trade Summary: Institutional vs. Retail Insights

• Institutional Investors: Executed fewer but far larger trades by both volume (78.4%) and value (88.2%). Major focus: OANDO, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, FIDELITYBK, ACCESSCORP—confirming preference for high-liquidity financials and oil plays.
• Retail Investors: More fragmented and broader trade activity. Top names: OANDO, ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK, CWG — with a surprising tech tilt (CWG).
• Cross-Interest Hotspots: OANDO, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK are favored by both groups—momentum and liquidity attract all classes. Watch for early signals in these names as possible sentiment barometers.
• Correlation Insight: Stocks with strong institutional volume last week also featured among the top gainers with notable price/RSI run-ups. This could presage continued professional flow into momentum winners on technical signals.

• Tech Watch: CWG’s emergence in the retail top 5 signals growing interest in technology sector plays—potential for upward momentum if it attracts broader institutional attention.
• Volatility Watch: OANDO’s enormous volume surge reflects both retail and institutional speculation; expect amplified price swings and possible short-term overbought retracements.
• Tactical Tip: Track stocks that appear on both top traded and top gainer boards—they are likely under accumulation and may outperform into the next week if broader market sentiment holds.

Final Takeaways

• Momentum continues in key names: FIDSON, BERGER, OANDO and others remain in extended overbought conditions but could see further upside on momentum trading.
• Turnover Decline—Transitory or Caution? Trading value and volume plunged, but the boost in number of deals and select stock turnover suggests the market is not drying up but getting more selective. This can amplify volatility in favored names.
• Sector Rotation: Growth and Premium indexes are in favor, while Consumer Goods take a breather. Oil & Gas is rebounding, but only cautiously.
• Oversold Bounce Setups: Several stocks have reached technical extremes and could offer mean-reversion opportunities for risk-conscious short-term traders.
• Macro Supportive: Naira's appreciation signals less pressure for FX-sensitive sectors.

Reminder: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Extreme RSI and volume readings can signal both opportunity and caution. Use stop-losses, and favor liquid stocks in times of reduced overall turnover.

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