NIGERIA | TELECOMS | AIRTEL AFRICA

Quick take: Reduced FX Loss boosts profitability.

Airtel Africa's 9M 2025 financial results revealed a 5.8% y/y decline in Revenue, falling to US$3.66 billion from US$3.88 billion in 9M 2024. However, on a q/q basis, total Revenue showed marginal growth of 4.9%, increasing from US$1.21 billion in Q2 2025 to US$1.27 billion in Q3 2025. The y/y decline was primarily driven by significant currency devaluations across several countries, including Nigeria, Malawi, and Zambia. Notably, the Nigerian Naira depreciated from a weighted average NGN/USD rate of 677 in the previous period to 1,532 in the current period.

Data revenue decreased by 2.8% y/y, dropping to US$1.31 billion from US$1.34 billion in 9M 2024. Despite this decline, the company saw a 13.8% increase in its customer base, reaching 71.4 million, reflecting the continued growth in the demand for mobile data and mobile money services. Voice revenue also fell by 14.7% y/y, decreasing to US$1.46 billion from US$1.71 billion in 9M 2024. Overall, the company's total customer base grew by 7.9% y/y, reaching 163.1 million, demonstrating the company's efforts to expand its network. Mobile money revenue continued its upward trajectory, rising by 15.8% to US$731 million in 9M 2025 from US$631 million in 9M 2024. Mobile money customers also grew by 18.3% y/y, reaching 44.3 million.

Airtel 9M 2025

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Direct Network Operating Costs fell marginally by 1.1% in 9M 2025 to US$708 million, down from US$716 million in 9M 2024. Operating Expenses rose marginally by 0.9% y/y to US$1.27 billion, compared to US$1.26 billion in the prior period. Despite these cost reductions, the company's EBITDA dropped by 11.9% y/y to US$1.68 billion from US$1.91 billion, primarily due to the decline in Revenue. The EBITDA margin contracted by 320 bps to 46.0% in 9M 2025. Additionally, Operating Profit decreased by 16.4% y/y to US$1.08 billion, compared to US$1.29 billion in 9M 2024, despite a 2.4% reduction in Depreciation and Amortization expenses to US$600 million.

Net Finance Costs decreased significantly, down 51.4% y/y to US$601 million from US$1.24 billion in 9M 2024. This reduction was driven by a 51.2% drop in Finance Costs amidst a 40.7% decline in Finance Income. The improvement in Net Finance Costs reflects lower derivatives and foreign exchange losses, with FX losses falling to US$153 million in 9M 2025 from US$903 million in the prior year.

As a result, the company reported a Pre-tax Profit of US$494 million in 9M 2025, a substantial improvement from US$55 million in H1 2024. The Tax Expense increased to US$246 million, compared to US$53 million in the prior period, leading to a Net Profit of US$248 million, compared to the US$2 million recorded in 9M 2024.

We maintain a target price of N3,230.33 per share, with a BUY recommendation on the stock. The current market price stands at N2156.90 per share.

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"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹Airtel-Africa-9M-2025-Quick-take .pdf"‹

"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹"‹Kind Regards,

Mustapha Umaru

Email: CSLResearch@fcmb.com"‹

Address: 44 MARINA, LAGOS ISLAND, "‹

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