NGX Weekly Market Recap & Analysis (Week ending April 25, 2025)

The Nigerian equity market closed this week on a positive note, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) advancing by +0.96% to settle at 105,753.05, marking a strong turnaround from last week’s dip (-0.27%). The atmosphere was notably bullish, as market breadth favored advancers over decliners by a solid margin (2.36x), and turnover/volume showed robust growth even as trade deals marginally declined. Consumer Goods, Insurance, and Banking stocks led the pack, while Industrials underperformed. Several high-octane movers, both up and down, created notable trading opportunities given their sharp price and momentum shifts. Here's how it all played out, which sectors stood out, and the hidden insights savvy investors should watch going forward!

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Market breadth:
  • Strongly bullish, with 66 advancers and 28 decliners (Breadth Ratio: 2.36x); 36.67% of stocks advanced versus 15.56% declining.
  • Volume uptick (+15.81% WTD) and turnover surge (+24.21% WTD) suggest heightened investor participation and optimism.
  • Broad-based rally: Volume traded was higher for 140 companies (vs. 139 down), with 16 new highs set—evidence of widespread upside momentum.
• Turnover and Trading Activity:
  • Despite falling number of trade deals (-0.82% WTD), value and volume of trades improved.
  • This hints at increased concentration—fewer but larger trades—possibly driven by institutional block activity.

Top Weekly Gainers & Losers

• Top Week-to-Date (WTD) Gainers

  Stock	Symbol	WTD Change (%)	RSI	Div. Yield (%)
  International Breweries Plc.	INTBREW	+27.27	86.73	6.23
  National Salt Co. Nig. Plc (NASCON)	NASCON	+26.22	69.57	3.09
  Africa Prudential Registrars Plc	AFRIPRUD	+23.38	43.70	1.27
  Vitafoam Nig Plc	VITAFOAM	+21.22	84.85	7.03
  Ikeja Hotel Plc	Ikejahotel	+21.00	62.33	0.94

• Top WTD Losers

  Stock	Symbol	WTD Change (%)	RSI	Div. Yield (%)
  VFD Group Plc	VFDGROUP	-82.19	26.77	0.00
  John Holt Plc	JOHNHOLT	-18.71	8.45	1.25
  Dangote Cement Plc	DANGCEM	-10.00	77.53	6.27
  Tripple Gee and Co. Plc	TRIPPLEG	-10.00	1.04	5.32
  Haldane McCall Plc	HMCALL	-9.96	4.14	0.00

• Standout Data Points:
  • INTBREW (International Breweries) and VITAFOAM’s RSI values soared above 80, signaling possible overbought territory—a short-term pullback risk, but also proof of strong momentum.
  • VFDGROUP posted an astonishing -82% collapse for the week—potential forced selling or a major de-risk event (watch for bargain hunting or further capitulation).
  • Dangote Cement (DANGCEM) is an unusual case with a bearish WTD return (-10%) but a strongly overbought RSI (77.53)—a technical aberration to watch closely.

Year-To-Date (YTD) Top Gainers & Losers

• VITAFOAM and NASCON are in both the top WTD and YTD gainers—ongoing momentum, supported by positive trends and attractive dividend yield (VITAFOAM: 7.03%).
• VFDGROUP stands out as a serial underperformer: it is both top YTD and WTD loser, typically a red flag unless value investors spot deep discounts after a selloff.
• TIP shows a massive YTD run but posted a notable weekly decline—momentum seems to have paused; potential consolidation or correction ahead.

Momentum Stocks — Bullish & Bearish Patterns

• Bullish Momentum Candidates:
  • INTBREW (RSI: 86.7, MACD positive, 15DMA > 50DMA): Technically overheated but momentum strong; take caution for pullback after such a rapid climb.
  • VITAFOAM (RSI: 84.8, MACD positive, both 15DMA and 50DMA at/above price): Still showing robust technicals and significant YTD/WTD performance.
  • WAPCO (RSI: 84.7, MACD turning up, price breaking above both moving averages in the last week): High-volume institutional interest; further upside possible but risk of sharp reversals grows.
• Bearish Momentum Candidates:
  • VFDGROUP (RSI: 26.8, MACD sharply negative, 15DMA far below 50DMA): Classic capitulation pattern; avoid catching the falling knife until signs of stabilization.
  • JOHNHOLT (RSI: 8.45): Severely oversold, possible for a technical bounce but bearish momentum dominant.
  • TRIPPLEG (RSI: 1.04, MACD negative): Strongly oversold and in sustained technical downtrend.
  • MRS (RSI: 21.6, MACD negative, price below both moving averages): Technical picture remains weak.
  • HMCALL (RSI: 4.14): Deeply bearish, approaching potential value territory for risk-seeking contrarians.
• Unusual Case — Contradictory Signals:
  • DANGCEM (RSI: 77.5 but WTD -10%): This rare combo means the stock suffered a breakdown from an overbought position, and volatility could stay high in the short term.

Sector & Index Performance Analysis

• Outperformers: Consumer Goods led (+5.92% WTD / +14.64% YTD) on the back of strong earnings and safe-haven demand (food, staples). Insurance also surprised to the upside WTD, but remains a deep YTD laggard.
• Banking stocks: Added fresh gains after healthy correction; resilient YTD showing, with both NGX Banking and NGX-AFR Bank Value up over 3%.
• Underperformers: Industrial Index (-3.52% WTD / -6.10% YTD) struggled, reflecting heavyweights like DANGCEM pulling back sharply after previous rallies.
• Premium, Growth, and Bond indices: Flat to slightly negative, signaling investor preference for cyclical "value” sectors over expensive growth names or bonds during current risk-on mood.
• Currency note: The Naira continued its slide, dropping 0.19% against the Dollar—tailwind for exporters, inflationary risk for others.

Trade Flow & Activity Insights

• Retail vs. Institutional Participation:
  • Retail investors made up 85.6% of trade count, but only 6.86% of total trade value—meaning institutions dominated large, high-value trades.
  • Institutional trades, though only 14.37% by count, accounted for a hefty 93.14% of value and 74.56% of total volume—shifting the balance of market direction and price discovery.
  • This dynamic often means that price pivots and major trend moves are institutionally driven.
• Top-5 Most Traded Stocks — Institutional
  • GTCO — Massive block trades, 13.81% of all institutional volume. Strong week, up +5% WTD.
  • MTNN — +5.6% WTD, institutional volume more than 12x its 90D average! Signal of strong buy-side interest or major repositioning.
  • ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, WAPCO — All feature consistently, confirming Banks and select blue-chips as core institutional focus.
  • WAPCO surge (RSI: 84.7, +12.5% WTD) — notable institutional accumulation during the week. Sparkline crossover in 15DMA/50DMA also occurred.
• Top-5 Most Traded Stocks — Retail
  • GTCO leads both institutional and retail volume tables, but retail flows represent only 0.37% of total.
  • Other banking names (ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK) show retail affinity for banks, but again institutional flow dwarfs retail buying/selling.
  • DANGCEM listed as a high retail trade despite its big drop, suggesting retail participants were more reactive (possibly panic selling) while institutions either stepped back or selectively reallocated.
• Patterns Noted:
  • Stocks with heavy institutional volumes (e.g., MTNN, GTCO, WAPCO) also have strong price momentum and sector leadership. These are likely to continue dictating near-term index trends.
  • Retail activity is broad-based but has little influence over market direction absent institutional confirmation.

Dividend Yield & Value-Play Focus

• Some top momentum gainers (VITAFOAM, INTBREW, DANGSUGAR) also offer attractive dividend yields (4-7%), making them doubly attractive for both income and momentum seekers.
• High dividend yield names among the losers (TRIPPLEG at 5.3% and DANGCEM at 6.3%) may present value-hunting opportunities for yield-driven investors, but only once bearish technicals show early reversal signs.
• Caveat: Ultra-high yield on falling stocks warrants caution—signal of potential dividend cuts or "value trap” scenarios.

Actionable Insights & Recommendations

• Momentum traders: Top gainers like INTBREW, NASCON, VITAFOAM, and WAPCO should remain on your radar. However, high RSI values signal likely pullbacks—tighten stops or take partial profits.
• Contrarian/value seekers: Deeply oversold names like VFDGROUP, JOHNHOLT, TRIPPLEG, MRS, and HMCALL are technically ripe for bounces, but wait for reversal signals before entry.
• Dividend hunters: Stocks like VITAFOAM and DANGSUGAR combine price momentum and solid yields—best of both worlds, but manage size due to volatility.
• Follow the institutions: Heaviest institutional turnover was in banking, telecom, and building materials—expect these to remain market barometers.
• Monitor sector trends: Consumer Goods and Banking are this week’s main engines. Industrials (and particularly DANGCEM) warrant a tactical watch for possible snap-back after their drubbing.
• Tactical caution: Despite the overall bullishness, spikes in RSI and extreme moves demand discipline—avoid chasing already-overbought winners.

Summary: The NGX is seeing renewed risk appetite, led by Consumer and Banking stocks, with institutions playing a decisive role. Watch for profit-taking in technically overbought names, opportunities in beaten-down sectors, and use institutional flows as your compass for the coming week. Stay nimble, as volatility and sector rotation will remain prominent themes.