Daily Market Summary – Thursday, July 31, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) closed strong today, up by 0.42% at 139,278.67, bringing the YTD return to an impressive 35.55%. Market activity took a sharp turn with trading volume plunging to 96.10M (from 847.81M previously) and turnover down a staggering -89.31% to ₦3.34B. Market breadth remained weak at 0.55x, highlighting more sellers than buyers, with 31 stocks advancing and 56 declining. ETFs stole the show as THE SIAML PENSION ETF 40 (SIAMLETF40) topped the gainers, while UACN and select insurance names dominated both gainers and losers lists. Technical and sector signals suggest a potential pause or selective rotation as volume thins out. Let’s unpack the day’s hidden signals and top movers.

Market Breadth & Notable Trends

• Weak market breadth: With just 0.55x (31 advancers vs. 56 decliners), sellers convincingly outnumbered buyers. Despite the Index closing higher, underlying internals remain soft, indicating narrow leadership.
• Turnover Collapse: The -89.31% drop in market turnover signals either caution among institutions, rotation into less liquid counters, or risk-off sentiment in the broader market. Caution is warranted on chasing small cap or illiquid names after big runs.
• Unusual Volume: REGALINS (+976% vs. 90-day avg), FCMB, UNIVINSURE, ROYALEX, and VERITASKAP all saw volumes more than double their 90-day average, suggesting either accumulation, rotation, or short-term speculation.

Top Gainers & Losers (Daily)

• Overheated conditions: Multiple top gainers boast extreme RSI readings (SIAMLETF40: 98.7, UACN: 99.4, GUINNESS: 96.8). This points to potential overbought territory and short-term pullback risk.
• Unusual overlap: UACN tops both gainers and losers lists (likely due to adjustment, technical or error in price data—traders should verify before acting). Watch for erratic liquidity and price spikes.

Year-to-Date (YTD) Top Gainers & Losers

• Momentum persists: Several top gainers match extremely high RSI, MACD and 15DMA>50DMA, but caution is warranted as the market looks stretched (e.g., UACN, DANGSUGAR, CUSTODIAN all >85 RSI).
• Reversal warning: YTD 'losers' oddly show high YTD gains but significant recent pullbacks. FTNCOCOA, NAHCO, INTBREW, VITAFOAM—all up >100% YTD but have slumped double-digits in the last week—signaling exhaustion and possible profit taking.
• Overlap insight: Several insurers (MANSARD, FTNCOCOA) and consumer names are present in both unusual volume/bearish momentum and YTD laggards—watch for dip-buying attempts or further downside accelerations.

Bullish vs Bearish Momentum

• Bullish crossovers: Stocks crossing above the 15-day moving average: VERITASKAP (+7.87%, RSI 48.77), ARADEL, FG192053S3, and MAYBAKER all give fresh bullish signals. Notably, VERITASKAP and MAYBAKER combined high volumes with technical breakout—momentum players could monitor for continued runs.
• Bearish signals: Plenty of stocks crossed below the 15DMA, particularly in Insurance (e.g., REGALINS, AIICO, WAPIC), Banking (FIDELITYBK, FIRSTHOLDCO), Media, and transport (NAHCO, IKEJAHOTEL), suggesting rotation out of these spaces or a broad-based risk-off tone in those sectors.
• Bullish Divergence Flag: SIAMLETF40 and UACN not only sit at YTD highs and top daily gainers, but also show RSI > 95 and large positive MACD, classic overbought/overextended signatures.
• Bearish Convergence: MANSARD, IKEJAHOTEL, and NAHCO flag both as daily losers and with bearish 15DMA breakdown signals.

Contrarian Signals

• UACN (RSI 99.4, MACD 6.89, +143.7% YTD): Ultra-overbought with positive technicals but unsustainably parabolic. Extensive profit-taking or mean-reversion risk is extreme.
• REGALINS (Bearish 15DMA breakdown, Unusual Volume +976%, modest PE): High volume sell-off typically suggests institutional exit, but historic rebounds on similar patterns suggest to watch for reversal if volume dries up in coming days.
• FTN COCOA: Despite a 201.6% YTD return, today's -10% dump (RSI falling to 55.8) suggests a hot potato trade turning cold quickly. Unwinding could extend if no catalyst emerges.
• MANSARD: Appears on both top daily losers and has a high RSI (77.7), signifying loss of short-term momentum after an extended rally—watch for technical support or dead-cat bounce traders.

Sector Heatmap, Institutional/Retail Activity & Technical Trends

• Insurance sector: Is under technical duress, with several names breaking below moving averages and reporting abnormal sell volume. Contrarian risk-seekers could position for bounces if signs of stabilization emerge.
• Banking sector: Remained mixed, but institutional clustering still skews heavily toward blue chips (footnote: see ZENITHBANK, UBA).

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Watch

• REGALINS: Stands as a possible contrarian defensive play. Despite a high yield (6.5%) and low beta (0.47), short-term technicals suggest caution until selling abates.
• AIICO: Offers attractive yield but short-term momentum turns negative as it breaks down technically.

Institutional Clustering & Liquidity Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Held 20.17% of institutional trade value—continued institutional support for this blue-chip signals confidence, possibly a flight to safety amidst emerging volatility.
• UBA and ACCESSCORP: Consistently high in both institutional and retail volume, indicating "go-to” large cap liquidity for both sophisticated and retail players.
• WAPCO: Institutional flows are elevated relative to normal, likely reflecting thematic or ETF-based rotation.

Trade Activity Summaries

Observation: Institutions dominated volume (70.75%) and value (90.46%). Retail investors controlled more trade count (59.32%) but with much smaller size, a typical market structure in high volatility or risk-off periods as large players run for safety or rotate selectively.

• Top 5 Institutional Traded Stocks: ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, WAPCO, MTNN.
  • Pattern: Banking sector (ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP) continues to be institutional safe-haven; MTNN and WAPCO show ETF or sector rotation flows.
  Top 5 Retail Traded Stocks: MTNN, UBA, DANGSUGAR, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP.
  • Insight: High overlap with institutional favorites except DANGSUGAR, indicating a consensus pursuit of liquidity and momentum. DANGSUGAR's recent performance drawdown may signal retail "buy the dip” activity.

Trader Takeaways & Opportunities

• Avoid chasing extended RSI "parabolics”: UACN, GUINNESS, SIAMLETF40 are at unsustainably high overbought readings. Wait for pullbacks or use trailing stop-losses.
• Monitor unusual volume names: REGALINS, FCMB, ROYALEX, VERITASKAP may lead short-term rebounds or further liquidation—wait for confirmation.
• Defensive Dividend Stocks: REGALINS, AIICO, ZENITHBANK are worth monitoring by value and income-seeking investors—especially if marked with low beta and high yield, even as technicals fade.
• Watch for technical reversals in Insurance & select Banks: Several names are at inflection points with the market rolling over in spots—bearish for now, but high-yield/low beta stocks could provide snapback trades if panic selling exhausts.
• Liquidity first: Major flows have returned to blue-chips and liquid ETFs. Caution on micro-caps with thin volume after today’s sharp turnover drop.

Hidden Insights & Final Thoughts

• Internals vs Index Divergence: Despite a green close for the Index, breadth and turnover sharply deteriorated, classically signaling a potential near-term reversal or the onset of sector/stock-specific volatility.
• Overheated names are most at risk: RSI extremes almost always precede volatility spikes or sharp reversals—traders need a disciplined, risk-managed approach.
• Institutional clustering remains defensive: Watch for further migration into large-caps and out of vulnerable sectors.

Summary of Actionable Levels:

• High-Yield/Low Beta candidates: REGALINS (wait for downside exhaustion then accumulate slowly), AIICO (after technical stabilization).
• Bullish momentums to monitor: VERITASKAP, ARADEL, MAYBAKER (with tight stops).
• Avoid fresh positions in names with RSI >90 unless for tactical, short-term trades with defined exits.
• Liquidity rotation still favors blue-chip banks (ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP), safer plays in a thinning market.

Currency market: Naira strengthened modestly by 0.01%, closing at 1,529 per dollar, but risks remain should oil/FX volatility increase.