NGX Market Recap – Tuesday, May 6, 2025

The Nigerian equities market staged a pronounced rebound today as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) advanced by 1.56% to settle at 106,698.50, slightly easing its year-to-date returns to 5.02%. Market breadth remained robust at 1.65x, with 43 advancers trouncing 26 decliners. Notably, trading volume inched higher by 2.4% compared to the prior session, reaching 459.24 million shares, while turnover dipped marginally by 0.35% to ₦12.71 billion. The rally was powered by eye-catching gains in blue chips and a surge in investor participation, especially in banking and select consumer names. Today's session was characterized by contrasting technical signals—while some stocks flashed bullish momentum, others posted overbought readings signaling a potential pause ahead.

• Market Breadth:
  • The 1.65x breadth ratio punctuates strong buying momentum, with 43 gainers vs 26 losers. This signals a healthily broad rally, not just a few heavyweight names pulling up the index.
  • Volume was up in 70 stocks and down in 66, indicating a mixed but slightly bullish tilt.
• Top Gainers:
  • ECOBANK (ETI): +10.00% to ₦25.85 — RSI: 28 (nearing oversold reversal), MACD below signal, but today's bounce could indicate a short-term pivot.
  • NESTLE: +10.00% to ₦1,210 — RSI: 90 (heavily overbought), MACD: 29.57 (strongly bullish).
  • BETA GLASS (BETAGLAS): +9.98% to ₦132.8 — RSI: 99 (extreme overbought), up 104.62% YTD.
  • NNFM: +10.00% at ₦82.5 — Came from a RSI ~30 (borderline oversold), sign of possible bounce.
  • AUSTINLAZ: +9.94%, but RSI 5.4 (highly oversold and speculative bounce).
• Top Losers:
  • NESTLE: -10.0% Close at ₦1,210 — (Note this is contradictory based on conflicting info, but holding due to data input.)
  • GUINEA INSURANCE: -8.70% with RSI 52.44 (neutral), but big price slide after volume surge.
  • VFD GROUP (VFDGROUP): -6.59% to ₦17.0 — RSI 27.6 (oversold, high volatility), and top YTD loser at -61.71%.
  • DAAR COMM: -6.77%, RSI 48 (stabilizing after selloff).
  • WAPIC INS.: -6.07%, RSI in neutral zone.

Market Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Implications:
  • Slight turnover decrease (-0.35%) versus rising volumes suggests average trade sizes are shrinking and retail participation is up. This could point to higher broad-based activity rather than block institutional deals dominating the session.
• Advancers vs Decliners:
  • Advancers maintained momentum, reinforcing bullish undertones. Several stocks with extremely high RSI (NESTLE, BETAGLAS, NB) now risk a short-term pullback or profit-taking.
• Unusual Volume:
  • CAVERTON: Volume surged nearly +475% above its 90d average but price flat, suggesting stealth accumulation or distribution phase.
  • STERLINGNG, VFDGROUP, CWG: Volume 2x to 5x normal levels—watch for follow-through in price in coming sessions (possible swing setups).
  • ACCESSCORP: Over +132% above its 90d average and ranks high on both retail & institutional activity lists—mixed momentum, but smart money may be repositioning.
• YTD Top Gainers & Losers / Momentum Analysis:
  • BETAGLAS: On a tear with +104.62% YTD, RSI 99—momentum still positive, but ahead of fundamentals—caution warranted for new entries.
  • THE INITIATES PLC (TIP): +121.2% YTD, RSI at the threshold of overbought (70), positive MACD—bullish momentum persists but could be stretched.
  • VFDGROUP: Both top YTD loser (-61.71%) and high on today's volume list, with bearish technicals, RSI still oversold and heavy volatility—capitulation or bottom picking could emerge soon.
  • Several banks (ZENITHBANK, GTCO, ACCESSCORP, UBA) appear in multiple activity tables—sector rotation and fund flows into banking shares are evident.
  • Bullish momentum: NNFM, OKOMUOIL, INTENEGINS, CUSTODIAN all trading above 15DMA, signaling possible follow-through.
  • Bearish momentum: UPDCREIT, GUINEAINS, UNIVINSURE all slipping below 15DMA—short-term pain may persist.

Contrarian Signals

• NESTLE: Both in top daily gainer and loser tables—a red flag for data integrity or flash volatility. Notably, RSI at 90 = historically overbought, yet the price is surging—a potential trap for late buyers.
• BETAGLAS: RSI near 99, price spiked strongly, but MACD is still positive. Momentum is feverish, but high risk of sharp correction—profit-taking likely soon.
• VFDGROUP: Volume was over 5x normal on a large price drop (-6.59%) and a deeply negative YTD (-61.71%), yet RSI so low (27.6) that a relief bounce is plausible.
• AUSTINLAZ: Up +9.94% but RSI at 5.4 and negative MACD—possible dead-cat bounce amid oversold panic.

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunities)

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional trade value share at 20.17%. Watch for continued block trade activity potentially driving price trends.
• ACCESSCORP, UBA: Also highly traded institutionally, signaling banking sector remains the playground for big funds.
• ARADEL, MTNN: High institutional block sizes—potential to induce after-hours moves or continued leadership.

High Dividend Yield Stocks with Momentum Signals

• INTENEGINS: Yield 3.4%, above 15DMA. Bullish momentum + yield = Attractive for dividend & swing traders.
• NSLTECH: Yield 15.87%, price just cleared 15DMA, high beta—potential value trap or deep value play if liquidity & fundamentals back it up.
• UBA: Strong 5.96% yield, high institutional activity, momentum above 15DMA, though volatility risk is non-trivial.
• CUTIX: 6.52% yield, but recent YTD underperformance. Could catch a bid as investors rotate towards quality yielders with room for technical mean reversion.

Trader Watchlist: Opportunities & Cautions

• Monitor overbought names (NESTLE, BETAGLAS, NB): Excessive RSI readings suggest risk of profit-taking; only for agile traders.
• Bullish momentum: GTCO, ZENITHBANK, NNFM, INTENEGINS—consider positions with trailing stops or scaling in.
• Watch Oversold Recovery Candidates: VFDGROUP, ETI, AUSTINLAZ—potential short-term rebounds, but avoid large positions as sentiment remains fragile.
• Volume surges: CAVERTON, CWG—look for breakout confirmation or signs of the 'smart money' accumulating/distributing.
• Yield + Momentum: INTENEGINS, NSLTECH, UBA—favorable setup for risk-moderate yield chasers.

Top 5 YTD Gainers and Losers

Market Activity / Trades Summary

• Retail vs Institutional:
  • Retail investors executed 89.46% of trades but only accounted for 33.72% of volume and 11.33% of trade value; classic sign of many small trades and broad market interest.
  • Institutional investors made up only 10.54% of trades, but drove 66.28% of volume and a whopping 88.67% of trade value—indicative of large block trades shaping the price, especially in banks (see below).
• Top 5 Institutionally Traded Stocks:
  1. ZENITHBANK (20.17% of institutional value), steady price advance, bullish 15DMA crossover, in both retail and institutional lists—a proxy for 'consensus' fund flows.
  2. UBA, ACCESSCORP—banks dominating institutional flows; may explain the sector outperformance.
  3. ARADEL—feature on both institutional list and YTD underperformers; suggests some bottom fishing or strategic accumulation post-correction.
  4. MTNN (MTN Nigeria): Heavy institutional trades aligned with price momentum; a bellwether for confidence in NGX large caps.
• Top 5 Retail-Traded Stocks:
  1. ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK—mirroring institutional focus but in smaller trade sizes; evidence of thematic sector attention.
  2. MTNN, GTCO—strong interest from both camps, likely due to recent price moves and positive news sentiment.
• Patterns & Correlations: Stocks appearing on both institutional and retail focus lists (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, UBA, MTNN) often coincide with technical strength (above 15DMA) and support current upward momentum in banks, cementing sector leadership.

Hidden Insights for Investors

• Extreme RSI readings in some top gainers (NESTLE, BETAGLAS, NB, CADBURY) suggest short-term price risk—a classic "too far, too fast” scenario ripe for a healthy pullback.
• NNFM (Food) stands out with a 'turnaround' signal: RSI recovered from 30, price smashing above its 15DMA. Early signs of accumulation.
• Volume spikes in CAVERTON and STERLINGNG, but lack of sustained price move, may indicate positioning for future news/corporate actions.
• VFDGROUP posts as both high-volume, top loser, and below 15DMA candidate. Watching for sentiment shift or big fund rotation as value metrics readjust.
• Dividend-yield seekers should monitor INTENEGINS (mix of yield and bullish momentum; very low beta) and CUTIX (potential bottoming action soon).

For more detailed analysis, on InfoWARE Market Data Terminal <NSEPERF> <GO>
On InfoWARE Finance Mobile App (Android, iPhone & iPad, Windows Phone and Windows 8/10), "Top Gainers & Losers"