Daily Market Summary – Thursday, June 5, 2025

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) recorded a notably strong session, with the All Share Index (ASI) rising by 1.63% to close at 112,781.73. This reflects a continued positive momentum following the year-to-date gain of 11.08%. Market turnover almost doubled, surging by 97.65% to ?29.94 billion, while the volume traded more than doubled to 1.25 billion shares. Market breadth was healthy at 1.75x with 42 advancing stocks outnumbering 24 decliners. Notably, the top daily gainer was CHAMPION BREW. PLC., surging 10.00%, while NIGERIAN EXCHANGE GROUP experienced the largest decline of -10.00%.

Market Breadth & Trends

• Turnover and Volume: The market’s turnover doubling suggests heightened investor interest, particularly from institutional investors, whose share of volume soared to 88.26% versus Retail’s 11.74%.
• Advancers vs Decliners: With a market breadth of 1.75x, positive sentiment is broad-based but selective, as volume only rose in half of the listed stocks.
• Unusual Volume: Stocks like LIVINGTRUST MORTGAGE BANK and BUACEMENT recorded extraordinary volume surges (over 14000% and 2900% respectively), signaling front-running or institutional accumulation.
• Institutional vs Retail Activity: Institutions accounted for 95% of traded value but only about 35% trade count, illustrating a concentration of big positions versus retail’s active but smaller size trades.

Top Gainers & Losers Highlights

• CHAMPION BREW. PLC (CHAMPION) – Closing at ?7.70, recorded the day’s top gain of +10.00%, with strong weekly and monthly gains underpinning continuation momentum. RSI at 70.16 and a bullish crossover of 15DMA above 50DMA strongly suggest sustained upside potential despite a hefty PE of 412, implying speculative interest.
• NIGERIAN EXCHANGE GROUP (NGXGROUP) – Surprised with a +10.00% intraday recovery though YTD price remains up 45.32%. RSI at 84.77 signals overbought conditions with some caution warranted, await consolidation confirmation.
• STANBIC IBTC ETF 30 – Gained 10.00%, representing a possible rotation into ETFs amid broader sector recalibrations; however, lower QTD and YTD performance calls for monitoring.
• OANDO PLC – Noteworthy for volume spike (+476.96%) driven largely by institutions (23% institutional trade count) and a robust MTD gain of 22.52%. The RSI of 68.9 with MACD bullish crossover indicates fresh buying momentum even as YTD position is mildly negative.
• VSPBONDETF – ETF with sharp daily decline of -30.79% and price break below 15DMA signaling bearish momentum despite historically stable RSI, indicating strong selling pressure possibly on macroeconomic concerns.
• LIVESTOCK FEEDS PLC – Among top day and year-to-date losers with a sharp daily fall of -7.82% and ongoing bearish pressure (RSI 45), despite being in top 5 YTD performers previously, suggesting profit-taking and possibly sector stress.

Insights & Market Dynamics

• Turnover Surge Implies: Institutional investors' dominance in value (95%) signals continued confidence among big money, though retail investors remain active, particularly in growth and beverage sectors.
• Advancing Stocks Momentum: CHAMPION BREW and MTNN stand out with RSI above 70, positive MACD histograms, and 15DMA above 50DMA indicating strong bullish momentum; these may warrant accumulation or watching for pullbacks.
• Bearish Momentum Stocks: Stocks like LEGENDINT, VSPBONDETF, and LIVESTOCK show RSI below 35 and recent price crosses below 15DMA, signaling sustained selling pressure despite some having decent dividend yields.
• Unusual Volume Stocks: LIVINGTRUST and BUACEMENT's volume spikes could mark early positioning before expected corporate developments; traders should be alert for potential gaps or continuation patterns.
• YTD Top Gainers/Losers Overlap: CHAMPION and FIDSON Healthcare feature prominently both in daily and YTD gainers with high RSI and strong technicals, reinforcing strong positive momentum.
• Dividend Yield & Momentum: Stocks with high dividends like VITAFOAM (7.03% yield), CORNERSTONE (5.28%), and LASACO (4.05%) also show bullish momentum – attractive for income-focused investors seeking growth.
• Institutional Clustering: ZENITHBANK's substantial institutional trade value share (20.17%) and volume surge indicates institutional preference; combined with its steady RSI (68.5) and dividends yield (2.25%), it remains a potential defensive growth stock.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREW. PLC: Despite a strong YTD gain of +102.10%, RSI is moderate at 54.4 some days ago and currently at 70.16. The MACD histogram turned slightly negative today, signaling short-term hesitation despite strong price momentum; investors should watch for volatility spikes and volume contraction which could precede a short pullback.
• N NIG. FLOUR MILLS (NNFM): Showing strong YTD returns (184.85%) but daily decline and RSI contraction (58.9) combined with negative MACD histogram suggest current profit taking despite its robust fundamentals.
• VETIVA S&P BONDETF: While MACD histogram is positive, extremely negative price action and RSI near 50-nuetral zone creates conflicting signals suggesting volatile trading and possible structural shifts in fixed-income ETFs.

Sector Heatmap Overview

Dividend-Beta Matrix Highlights

Institutional Activity Clustering Alerts

• Zenith Bank (ZENITHBANK) Institutional gross trade value share is an impressive 20.17%, with volume surge (+166.75%) and RSI approaching bullish levels (68.57). Institutional accumulation here points to strong confidence in near-term bank sector growth.
• Fidelity Bank (FIDELITYBK) Demonstrating an extraordinary 64.4% of volume and 49% of trade value held by institutions, even though its RSI is neutral (~50), heavy institutional buy signals potential bottoming and subsequent growth.
• BUA Cement (BUACEMENT) Institutional interest remains elevated given the large volume spike (+2907%), despite zero price change, possibly positioning ahead of an anticipated catalyst.

Suggested Trader Insights

• Stocks like CHAMPION BREW. and MTNN demonstrate strong technical momentum and sizeable institutional participation; consider tactical entries on minor pullbacks.
• Caution warranted with high-beta defensives like DANGOTE CEMENT considering recent volume spikes may precede volatility spikes.
• Watch stocks with unusual volume surges such as LIVINGTRUST MORTGAGE BANK for breakout potential, as volume is a precursor to price movement.
• Bearish momentum observed in VSPBONDETF and LEGENDINT suggests monitoring stop-losses to mitigate downside in ETFs and equity funds.
• Stocks with mixed signals (contrarian signals) merit close monitoring as they may indicate early reversal zones or consolidation phases, especially CHAMPION and NNFM.

Top Year-To-Date Gainers & Losers (Last 5 Trading Days)

Market Activity – Retail vs Institutional Comparison

Institutions accounted for 35.05% of trades by count but dominated the volume and value traded with a hefty 88.26% and 95.04% respectively. Retail investors comprised the majority by count at 64.95%, participating actively with smaller volume trades.

Institutional vs Retail Patterns: Both investor classes are heavily concentrated in core financials such as FIDELITY BANK and OANDO, but volume magnitudes differ dramatically, highlighting institutions’ large-lot trades. Retail investors appear more diversified with interest also in smaller capitalization names like JAPAUL GOLD.

Final Thoughts

The market’s strong volume and turnover expansion, led by institutions, paired with favorable technical indicators on key large-cap stocks, suggest a continuation of bullishness. However, traders should watch for retracements in stocks showing tension in momentum oscillators despite price gains. Additionally, bear signals on ETFs and certain laggards caution about selective profit taking amid macro uncertainties. Defensive dividend stocks with lower Beta offer hedged opportunities in volatile phases.