NGX Market Wrap – Thursday, July 10, 2025

The NGX All-Share Index enjoyed a robust session, gaining 2.01% to close at 121,989.67, riding a tide of exuberant turnover and extremely bullish breadth. Year-to-date (YTD), the ASI now stands at an impressive 20.61%. Volume exploded to 1.22B shares (vs 189M previously), and turnover soared by a staggering 1,565.27%, hitting ₦26.43B. Market breadth was powerfully positive at 5.85x (76 advancers vs. 13 decliners). Notably, activity was widespread, with rising volume in 88 stocks and above-average institutional engagement, especially in banking majors like Access Holdings, ZenithBank, and UBA.

Momentum stocks continued to dominate, with micro- and small-caps—many of which now flash technical "overbought” signals—posting multi-session rallies. Key technical indicators (RSI, MACD, moving averages) suggest a short-term frothiness that could invite near-term profit-taking, but rotational leadership is emerging in select high dividend defensive names and several financials.

Market Breadth & Trend Highlights

• Volume surged to 1.22B shares—largest in months and powered by broad-based buying.
• Breadth: 76 advancers, only 13 decliners (ratio: 5.85x). Market participation remained robust, with rising volume in 88 stocks vs declines in 55.
• Turnover spiked dramatically (+1,565% d/d), hinting at heightened institutional rebalancing and/or a FOMO-driven retail surge.
• Institutional trades made up 71.2% of volume and a dominant 90% of trade value, targeting especially the banking sector.
• Stocks with unusual volume (e.g., AccessCorp, AIICO, JapaulGold, FCMB, Nigerian Breweries) correlated with strong price momentum and featured prominently on both institutional and retail radars.

Top Gainers & Losers – High Conviction Moves

• Top Gainers:
  • UBA (39.6): +10.0%. Institutional and retail darling, strong MACD/price action and high dividend yield (5.96%).
  • FTN Cocoa (6.82): +10.0%. RSI at 85.3 (overbought), breakaway volume, technically frothy. YTD: +262.8%.
  • Caverton (8.36): +10.0%. RSI 82.4, another name flashing momentum exhaustion, but no immediate signs of technical reversal.
  • UPDC & CON Hallmark (CONHALLPLC): Both up 10.0%, with CONHALLPLC closing above its 15DMA—a bullish signal.
• Top Losers:
  • NEIMETH (9.0): -9.91%, yet RSI is a sky-high 88.5 (potential exhaustion/top).
  • LEGENDINT (7.21): -9.88%, also features in YTD top losers; selling came despite a mid-range RSI and mild volatility.
  • GREENWETF (200.0): -9.09%. Among worst YTD decliners. RSI: 24.5 (oversold), sharp momentum breakdown.
  • IMG (34.0): -7.36%. Short-term volatile reversal, still mid-range on technicals.
  • Cadbury Nigeria (55.0): -6.22%, yet still with extremely high RSI (86.7).

YTD Top Gainers & Losers

Notable Data Points, Patterns & Technical Signals

• Turnover & Institutional Activity:
  • Institutional share of trade value surged to 90.03%, dominating volumes (71.17% of total). Major focus: Banking (ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA).
  • Retail trades: 57.2% of total trade count, but mainly in smaller ticket sizes—retail activity is more speculative.
• Unusual Volume: Several names traded 2X-5X their 90-day average—led by AccessCorp (+246%), AIICO (+511%), JapaulGold (+185%), FCMB (+301%), and NB (+303%).
  • Most of these are either seeing bullish crossovers (15DMA/50DMA) or are in YTD outperformers lists, confirming sector-wide rotation.
• Momentum Overlaps:
  • Several YTD top gainers (e.g., FTNCOCOA, JapaulGold, MEYER, ACADEMY, MCNICHOLS) also feature in bullish RSI (>70) and MACD-positive screens, signaling continued speculative fever.
  • However, warning signs: multiple "overbought" RSI readings (e.g., ACADEMY RSI 94.5, REDSTAREX RSI 91.5), which increases odds of corrections.
• Bullish Momentum:
  • Names with price close above 15DMA: CONHALLPLC, VETGRIF30, MTNN, SUNUASSUR, STERLINGNG, FCMB, JAIZBANK, ACCESSCORP. Many have supportive RSI and MACD trends, suggesting upside follow-through barring profit-taking.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • Notable: GREENWETF (RSI 24.5) and VFDGROUP (RSI 36.7, -69% YTD), both signaling deep oversold territory after sharp drawdowns—potential watchlist for value/bounce plays if sentiment turns.
• Dividend Yield - Defensive Plays: High dividend payers like REDSTAREX (6.12% yield, low beta 0.21), MCNICHOLS (5.88% yield, beta -0.11), and CORNERST (5.28% yield) appear in the YTD gainer/loser tables—potentially positioning for flight to safety.

Contrarian Signals (Conflicting Indicators)

• NEIMETH: Down -9.91% on the day, but RSI sits at 88.5—this kind of persistent "overbought” after a loss often signals a crowded reversal is brewing.
• Cadbury Nigeria: Lost -6.22% despite RSI at 86.7, suggesting profit-taking in previously overbought territory.
• GREENWETF: Down sharply both on the day and YTD (-62.5%), but RSI now at 24.5 (oversold). Could be a candidate for "dead cat bounce” if buyers return.
• LEGENDINT: Loss on day (-9.88%) but RSI of 51.8—not oversold, so further downside is possible short term.

Sector Heatmap (Key

Dividend-Beta Matrix – Defensive Watch

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Captured 20.2% of institutional trade value today—clear institutional clustering. Watch for possible continued large-block buying or a pullback if profit-taking emerges.
• ACCESSCORP: Represented 13.1% of institutional volume. Its price/volume surge today is a sentiment barometer for the index.
• UBA: Accounted for 8.7% of institutional trade value, further solidifying ongoing sector rotation into large banks.

Insights for Traders & Investors

• Bullish continuation possible—with several names posting above-15DMA closes, RSI/MACD supports (see: UBA, ZenithBank, AccessCorp), and institutional clustering, rallies can extend, but volatility will likely rise as names become overbought.
• High-yield, low-beta stocks are showing relative outperformance, making them attractive as partial hedges should profit-taking hit the wider market.
• Caution warranted for "overbought” microcaps (RSI > 80): watch for reversal or sharp profit-taking—momentum chasing becomes riskier at these levels.
• Bounce watch for deeply oversold names—especially ETFs like GREENWETF (RSI < 30) and VFDGROUP, which are ripe for short-term technical rebounds if volumes appear.
• Sector focus: Bank and insurance stocks remain leadership clusters for both institutional and retail. Rotation could soon favor laggards or sectors like telecoms (e.g., MTNN) on technical breakouts.
• Monitor unusual volume stocks—those names often foreshadow further price action, particularly if momentum is supported by technical indicators and institutional flows.
• Traders may consider scaling back exposure in names with severe RSI/MACD overbought levels but lean into rotational breakouts in defensives and financially stable high yielders.

Market Activity / Trades Analysis

• Both institutional and retail flows are concentrated in a handful of market drivers—especially banks—reflecting confirmation between "hot money” and retail "chase trade.”
• AIICO’s appearance in both "unusual volume” and "retail top traded” tables signals speculative enthusiasm and possible continuation, but caution for reversals as technicals get extended.
• NASCON’s 94 RSI and continued institutional flows highlight a candidate for profit booking soon.

Summary & Outlook

• Today’s session was marked by overwhelming positive breadth, heavy institutional banking activity, and technical exuberance across micro- and small-cap names.
• Rotational leadership remains in financials, select insurance, and high-yield defensives, while ETF weakness and some profit-taking in previously overbought names are warning signs to watch.
• Expect some short-term profit booking near-term, especially among names with RSIs above 80, but rotational opportunities abound in higher-dividend/low-beta stocks and rebound candidates with oversold RSI metrics.
• Watch institutional clustering—when funds crowd into leaders, rotation or unwind can be equally fast. Monitor sector health for broad-based continuation or signs of fatigue.

• Bullish momentum persists. Ride trending sector leaders, but scale in/out as technicals warrant.
• Monitor overbought signals: Tighten stops on hot names (many RSIs >80!). For those on momentum, stagger entries.
• Defensives & High-Yield: REDSTAREX, FCMB, CORNERST—attractive as ballast if profit-taking ensues.
• Contrarian "bounce” plays: Watch for recovery in oversold names like GREENWETF, VFDGROUP, CORNERST if technicals turn.

For more detailed analysis, on InfoWARE Market Data Terminal <NSEPERF> <GO>
On InfoWARE Finance Mobile App (Android, iPhone & iPad, Windows Phone and Windows 8/10), "Top Gainers & Losers"