NGX Daily Market Summary – Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Market Recap: The Nigerian Equity Market snapped back into positive territory today as the NGX ASI climbed +0.59% to close at 108,361.10, pushing YTD returns to +5.64%. Notably, market turnover soared by +41.24% to ₦17.95B, while total trading volume surged to 565.05M shares from 459.24M previously. Advancers handily outnumbered decliners at a robust breadth ratio of 2.74x (52:19), with unusual volumes, multi-sector leadership, and technical breakouts across key stocks.

Key Market Trends

• Market Breadth:
  • 52 advancers vs 19 decliners highlight strong bullish sentiment, supported by higher volumes in 71 companies (vs 63 down).
  • Top Gainers: MEYER PLC (+10.00%) led the way, closely followed by BETAGLAS (+9.98%), TIP (+9.95%), VITAFOAM (+9.94%), and SKYAVN (+9.92%).
  • Top Losers: VSPBONDETF (-17.20%) posted a steep drop, UPDCREIT (-10.00%), DEAPCAP (-10.00%), VERITASKAP (-9.09%), and AFRIPRUD (-5.60%) were also pressured.
• Volume & Turnover:
  • Day-on-day turnover growth bears watching, with 41.24% spike signaling renewed high-conviction trading, evidenced by outlier volumes in stocks like GTCO, NB, INTBREW, and TANTALIZER.
• Momentum & Technical Breakouts:
  • Multiple stocks flashed overbought RSI & bullish momentum (see section below), with leading names also featuring in YTD Top Gainers.

YTD Top Gainers and Losers (May 7, 2025)

Notable Gainers Insights

• BETAGLAS, VITAFOAM, SKYAVN are YTD leaders—today’s jump comes on the back of extremely high RSI (99+ for BETAGLAS & SKYAVN), implying overbought conditions and probable technical profit-taking ahead.
• VITAFOAM notably pairs strong price performance with a defensive dividend yield of 7.03%.
• TIP is on a fresh 5-day momentum run, up +143.20% YTD with RSI at 71.1 and a bullish MACD.
• MEYER reappears as top gainer despite negative YTD—a possible mean-reversion candidate or short-covering rally.

Notable Losers Insights

• VFDGROUP continues to hemorrhage value, -61.71% YTD and a RSI 27.1 signal—deep oversold; watch for mean-reversion interest if news flow turns.
• VSPBONDETF further plunges -17.20% today (-40.86% YTD) and crosses below its 15DMA—a strong bearish signal amid heavy selling.
• Several Insurance names (VERITASKAP, LINKASSURE, SOVRENINS) are persistent laggards, yet their healthy dividend yields may start to attract bottom-fishers.

Bullish & Bearish Momentum – Under the Hood

Observation: Several YTD gainers (BETAGLAS, VITAFOAM, SKYAVN) feature in both high RSI and bullish crossover lists, but with RSI levels nearing exhaustion. Contrarily, VFDGROUP is deeply oversold but has no technical reversal signal yet.

Contrarian Signals – Conflicting Indicators

• MEYER PLC: Pops as today's top gainer despite only modest YTD performance (+4.39% YTD). Still, RSI ultra-low at 0.28 & bearish MACD suggest move could be a technical bounce or short squeeze rather than a sustained reversal.
• SKYAVN: RSI at 99.6 is exceptionally high, with prices approaching parabolic acceleration—a classic "overbought” warning even as momentum traders chase the breakout.
• UPDCREIT: A double-edged sword: strong dividend yield of 10.87% and price trading above 15DMA signal bullishness, yet today's -10% drop and previous languishing price highlight volatility risk.
• VERITASKAP: Despite 4.17% dividend yield and technical oversold, remains a serial underperformer (-32.89% YTD). Dividend "trap” risk for unwary investors.

Sector Heatmap

Takeaway: Most sector momentum is positive, but Insurance and select Real Estate (REITs) are technical laggards. Breweries and banks saw both high volumes and strong institutional interest.

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunity Map

Insight: VITAFOAM shines as a rare "growth + income” story with both high yield and lower beta. Insurance stocks yield well but carry drawdown risk.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional trade value, and among the five most traded institutional stocks. A sign of persistent smart money focus.
• GTCO: Dominates institutional block volume (+394% vs 90-day avg), signaling coordinated fund flows.
• NB: Both high institutional and retail trading volumes; suggests broad-based participation and "hot money” rotation into consumer stocks.

Stocks with High Dividend Yield in Bullish/Bearish Tables

• VITAFOAM (7.03% yield; bullish table): Strong yield and momentum, possible "too far, too fast” setup. Consider profit-taking or trailing stops.
• UPDCREIT (10.87% yield; bullish table): Very high yield with technical breakout above 15DMA, yet also featured among today’s top losers—volatility caution warranted.
• LINKASSURE (5.55% yield; bearish table): Value-seeking investors might watch for signs of bottoming.
• AFRIPRUD (1.27% yield; bearish table): Yield at defensive levels, but technical warnings persist; best to wait for a reversal signal.

Traders’ Suggestions & Opportunities

• Momentum & Overbought Names: Stocks like BETAGLAS, SKYAVN, NB, and VITAFOAM are extremely overbought. Trailing stops and profit booking are prudent for short-term traders.
• Unusual Volume: GTCO, NB, INTBREW, and TANTALIZER may indicate institutional rotation or news catalysts; monitor next session for follow-through.
• Contrarian/Mean-Reversion Setups: Watch deeply oversold, low-RSI names (VFDGROUP, MEYER) for possible snap-back rallies if sentiment or news changes.
• Defensive Plays: High-yield, low-beta stocks like VITAFOAM and NB offer potential for income-focused investors.
• Yield "Traps”: Avoid buying solely for dividend yields in technical laggards like LINKASSURE or VERITASKAP without evidence of a price base.

Market Activity & Trade Summary Insights

• Retail vs Institutional: Institutions made up only 12.14% of trade count but dominated with 71.92% of total volume and 90.74% of value, confirming that big blocks are primarily driven by funds. Retail made up 87.86% by trade count but just 9.26% by value.
• Institutional Top 5 Symbols:
  1. ZENITHBANK (6.23% of institutional volume)
  2. GTCO (16.64%)
  3. NB (5.02%)
  4. MTNN (0.44%)
  5. ACCESSCORP (2.64%)
• Retail Top 5 Symbols:
  1. ACCESSCORP (0.97% retail volume, wide spread between retail and institutional blocks signifies diverse investor opinion)
  2. MTNN (0.05%)
  3. ZENITHBANK (0.32%)
  4. UBA (0.39%)
  5. GTCO (0.15%)
• Insight: GTCO and ZENITHBANK appear at the top for both institutional and retail flows—indicating cross-market consensus and liquidity, with institutions overwhelmingly driving value. ACCESSCORP, however, is one that retail dominates in trade count but not value, possibly a sign of speculative trading at smaller ticket sizes.
• Correlation: High institutional concentration in banking and brewery stocks, while retail is more scattered, but equally follows the "trend trades.”

Summary Table: High-Conviction Opportunities & Risks

Outlook & Final Word

• Short-term: The rally is broad and liquidity-driven; however, many momentum stocks are overbought—traders should prepare for consolidation or profit-taking especially in names flashing RSI > 70.
• Watch: Defensive high-yielders like VITAFOAM and dividend stalwarts amid potential market pullbacks.
• Risk: Insurance/REITs remain structurally weak—avoid catching falling knives until clear stabilization emerges.
• Institutions: Continue to anchor flows in the banking and consumer names, acting as bellwethers for sustained moves.
• Hidden Edge: Seek out names with improving RSI/MACD crossovers and strong institutional inflow that have not yet reached overbought territory for the next rotation trade.

For more detailed analysis, on InfoWARE Market Data Terminal <NSEPERF> <GO>
On InfoWARE Finance Mobile App (Android, iPhone & iPad, Windows Phone and Windows 8/10), "Top Gainers & Losers"