NGX Daily Market Roundup – Thursday, December 11, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) rebounded today, climbing +0.74% to close at 146,862.01, while YTD returns remain a robust +43.39%. Market breadth favored advancers with a ratio of 1.24x: 36 gainers versus 29 losers. Despite the bullish tilt, overall market volume slipped to 503.27 million shares (from 661.12 million yesterday), and turnover eased by -1.96% to 11.24 billion Naira. ETF volatility took the spotlight, with NEWGOLD ETF soaring +10.37% and MERGROWTH ETF dropping -10.00%. Noteworthy, a clear bifurcation in institutional activity dominated value and volume, hinting at selective accumulation and sector rotations playing out beneath the surface. Let’s break down the day’s key moves and hidden trends.

Market Breadth & Trends

• Breadth: With 36 advancers edging out 29 decliners and a breadth of 1.24x, bullish sentiment remains intact but is moderating from recent peaks.
• Volume Divergence: 65 stocks saw volume upticks while 76 declined; yet, total volume dropped -24% day-over-day, underscoring a rotation from high-flying names into selective buying.
• Turnover Dip: Market value traded slipped -1.96%, typically a cautionary sign — investors may be pausing after recent strong gains.
• Institutional Command: Institutions captured 76% of traded volume and 88.8% of value with just 36.6% of total trades, reflecting high-conviction block trading in select bellwethers.

Day’s Top Gainers & Losers

YTD Gainers & Losers: Contrasts & Table

Bullish & Bearish Momentum Signals

• Bullish Crossovers: Stocks crossing above 15DMA include NEWGOLD, LEGENDINT, DAARCOMM, NEM, DANGSUGAR. Among them, DANGSUGAR stands out: RSI at mid-level, strong price, and >4% dividend yield.
• Bearish Crossovers: Notably, CHAMPION BREW. crossed below 15DMA (down -8.5%) – RSI 48.6, not yet oversold but momentum remains negative. Several fixed income ETFs/bonds also showed bearish cross.
• Unusual Volume Surges: ACCESSCORP (+225% volume), FCMB (+272%), JAPAUL GOLD (+111%) suggest heavy trading interest, often precursors to trend continuation or sharp reversals.
• Red-flag Overbought: MORISON (RSI 96.4) and MERGROWTH (87.8) are highly overbought – typically, such levels risk sharp snapback corrections. Profit protection strategies are advisable for existing holders.
• Bullish ETF Flows: Multiple ETFs (MERGROWTH, NEWGOLD, SIAMLETF40) show explosive moves and are overbought—watch for rebalancing & volatility risk.
• Oversold Bounce Watch: JOHNHOLT (RSI 19.9) may set up for a relief rally if buyers step in.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION: Despite a neutral RSI (48.6) and bearish momentum crossing below 15DMA, MACD is improving versus signal. Down -7.9% YTD, this may signal an inflection (contrarian buy-the-dip?) if technicals firm up.
• JOHNHOLT: RSI of 19.9 (deeply oversold), significant YTD drawdown, but next upmove may be sharp if sentiment shifts.
• MERGROWTH: Extreme overbought on RSI yet continues to attract flows. Momentum can persist, but prudent watch for reversal signals.
• STANBICETF30: Despite strong MACD, price fell -10% (top loser); divergence suggests current weakness may find support soon, especially given robust YTD gains.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Picks

Institutional Clustering & Trade Flow Insights

• ZENITHBANK garnered 20.17% of institutional trade value, a sign of heavy positioning by large players in banking. These are often leading indicators for the rest of the sector.
• ACCESSCORP also had institutional flows accounting for nearly a quarter of institutional volume, with 225% spike in retail trading as well—a convergence which can reinforce short-term trend bursts.
• MTNN: Both retail and institutional interest; big block trades signal sustained blue-chip demand.
• Retail investors made up 63.4% of trades, but only 23.8% of volume. This spread often precedes volatility "whipsaws” as crowd flocks late to winners or cut losers.

Trade Summary & Activity Patterns

• Institutional to Retail Split: Institutions led value and volume (89% of value, 76% of volume), suggesting continued smart-money dominance, especially in ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, and MTNN. For traders, following institutional flows often pays off in the near-term.
• Retail Activity: Retail’s focus was spread between top blue chips (MTNN, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, UBA), but with much lower value per trade – caution for herding risk.
• Correlation Alert: Notable that stocks with high institutional and retail overlap (ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK) also saw volume surges and price leadership – often signals a "crowded trade” susceptible to sharp runs or reversals.
• Unusual Volume: JAPAULGOLD’s price/volume action could flag ongoing accumulation (or speculative flows) — supportive of further price surges in the short term.

Trader Takeaways & Opportunities

• Momentum Seekers: Consider trailing stops/profit harvests in overbought names (MERGROWTH, MORISON, MERVALUE, SIAMLETF40). Overheated RSI signals warrant caution.
• Bounce Hunters: Monitor JOHNHOLT and CHAMPION for possible mean-reversion rallies. Deeply oversold technicals can spark sharp reversals if positive news or flows emerge.
• Defensive Income: NEM, DANGSUGAR, and LIVESTOCK: Attractive yields with lower beta (market risk) profiles for those seeking stability amid volatility.
• Swing Traders: Watch stocks with both institutional and retail enthusiasm (ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, MTNN); but beware of crowding signals.
• ETF Traders: Extreme momentum in ETF space suggests both opportunity and risk: tight stops, nimble exits recommended.
• Monitor Turnover: Market value turnover falling while prices rise can be an early warning for a coming pause or reversal.
• Sector Rebalancing: Look for spillover into lagging but fundamentally strong sectors as excesses in overbought ETFs and names correct.