NGX Market Summary – Wednesday, December 10, 2025

The Nigerian equities market posted a marginal decline today, with the All Share Index (ASI) slipping -0.05% to close at 146,940.29. Despite the slight dip, the market retains a robust YTD gain of 42.34%. Market turnover nosedived by -44.30%, totalling ₦11.47bn from the prior session’s ₦20.59bn, underscoring a marked drop in activity. Market breadth was positive at 1.26x—34 advancers to 27 decliners—even as total traded volume decreased. Notably, small- and mid-cap ETFs dominated both gainers and losers lists, while several financial names emerged among the most heavily traded, especially among institutional investors. On the currency front, the Naira lost 0.05% to settle at 1,451/USD.

Key Market Highlights

• Market Breadth: Slightly risk-on, with advancers (34) outstripping decliners (27), assisted by ETF-led rallies.
• Top Gainers:
  • JAPAUL GOLD (+10.00%) – Strong bullish swing, RSI at 55.4 after a major jump in price and positive 5-day returns.
  • MERGROWTH ETF (+10.00%) – RSI at a scorching 83.7, suggesting an overbought and possibly overheated rally.
  • SIAMLETF40 & GREENWETF (~+10% each) – ETF products continue to dominate the YTD leaderboard, with SIAMLETF40's RSI at 94.7 (deeply overbought) and GREENWETF showing fresh bullish momentum.
• Top Losers:
  • STANBICETF30 (-10.00%) – A significant technical pullback after an already elevated RSI (77.95).
  • CHAMS (-10.00%); HALDANE MCCALL (-8.88%): Both with mid-to-high RSIs, suggesting further corrective risk especially for CHAMS, whose RSI is above 57.

Deeper Insights & Key Takeaways

• Turnover Watch: The steep -44.30% drop in market turnover signals profit taking and possible trader caution after recent ETF-driven froth. If this persists, expect further range-bound trading or profit booking.
• Momentum & Volume Patterns:
  • Extreme RSI in ETFs: Multiple ETFs (MERGROWTH, SIAMLETF40, MERVALUE) show RSIs > 80, suggesting the rally may be stretched—contrarian traders should exercise caution here.
  • Unusual Volume Alerts: CUTIX saw a >28x jump in volume, FCMB, CONHALLPLC, TANTALIZER, and JAIZBANK also flagged with >200% surges—this generally hints at institutional accumulation, sharp sentiment shifts, or news-driven trades. But not all high-volume names closed up—watch for bull/bear traps.
• YTD Trends:
  • Top YTD Gainers Overlap: MERVALUE ETF (+129.14%), GREENWETF, SIAMLETF40, MERGROWTH, JAPAUL GOLD all feature in both daily and YTD performance tables—momentum players should track these for trend continuation but beware of elevated RSI.
  • YTD Losers-to-Day: STANBICETF30, UACN, HALDANE MCCALL, SUNUASSUR show continued weakness—these are in technical drawdowns and may invite bargain hunting, though declining momentum suggests patience.
• Bullish Momentum: GREENWETF and PRESTIGE cross above their 15DMA with strong % gains; watch for sustained buying as their technicals now align with positive sector flows.
• Bearish Momentum: HMCALL (RSI 60.8) and LINKASSURE (RSI 42), crossing below 15DMA, suggest short-term downside risk. Moves like this, especially if volume rises, are often leading indicators for further declines.
• Institutional vs. Retail Focus: Institutions dominated both volume (84.5%) and value traded (88.5%); retail made up 62.7% of trades but with only 11.5% of value, underscoring their focus on lower-priced or less liquid names (see more below).

Contrarian Signals

• MERGROWTH ETF: RSI at 83.7 (overbought), +53% YTD, and another +10% today. Despite technical euphoria, volumes haven't spiked as might be expected—suggesting complacency. A pullback could be brewing.
• STANBICETF30: Despite a -10% drop today, its RSI remains high at 77.95—typically, a fall of this size would move RSI much lower; another sign that ETF momentum may be fading.
• HMCALL: Sits in both top daily and YTD loser tables, yet RSI is neutral (>60) and MACD shows no distinct bearish crossover—could attract short-term reversal traders.

Sector Heatmap & Technical Overview

Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Plays

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Controlled 20.17% of institutional trade value (₦591.7m) with relatively modest price change—evidence of large block trading/positioning.
• FIDELITYBK and GTCO: Each captured over 9% and 21.5% of institutional value traded respectively. These are likely being accumulated for year-end positioning—watch for breakout rallies into January.

Dividend + Momentum Note

• PRESTIGE: Stands out with 2.5% yield, low beta, and a bullish crossover—arguably the safest "defensive momentum” play in this session. Yield plus technical breakout makes this one to monitor closely.
• LINKASSURE: High dividend yield and low beta, but recent technical breakdown—dividend hunters should wait for the RSI to stabilize.

Actionable Ideas & Trader Cautions

• Bullish Momentum Opps: GREENWETF, PRESTIGE, JAPAULGOLD—momentum buyers can ride these but should beware of overbought territory for GREENWETF and JAPAULGOLD.
• Overextended ETFs: MERGROWTH, SIAMLETF40, and MERVALUE are red hot but look vulnerable to mean reversion; don’t chase strength blindly.
• Volume/Speculative Watch: CUTIX’s massive volume burst (+2839%) likely means a technical or fundamental catalyst—high risk, high reward.
• Yield + Momentum Blends: PRESTIGE is a rare mix of yield and momentum (bullish 15DMA cross). Value investors should track price reaction the next two sessions.
• Bearish Sentiment Caution: HMCALL, SUNUASSUR, UACN—all bearishly aligned technically and for YTD return; best avoided short-term unless clear reversal signals emerge.

Top 5 YTD Gainers

Top 5 YTD Losers

Market Activity Analysis: Institutional vs Retail

• Institutions: Drove 84.5% of market volume and 88.5% of trade value but made just 37.3% of the day’s trade count—signaling larger trade sizes and a focus on liquid blue-chips and ETFs.
• Retail: Accounted for 62.7% of trades but a mere 11.5% of traded value. Preferred more affordable or less liquid stocks. For instance, MTNN was among the most traded by retail, though it barely featured in institutional lists.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional):
  1. GTCO: 21.54% value share, steady price, slight uptick. Evidence of block trading/strategic positioning.
  2. ACCESSCORP: 6.60% of volume, but negative %Chg reflects consistent institutional rotation.
  3. ZENITHBANK: Large volume and value but little price action; signs of stealth accumulation.
  4. DANGCEM: Cement giant sees steady institutional trade but flat pricing.
  5. FIDELITYBK: Largest single stock by volume—could shift leadership if accumulation persists.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Retail):
  1. ACCESSCORP: Both retail and institutions are active, but volatility is higher in retail.
  2. MTNN: Attracts speculative retail interest, despite low volatility.
  3. GTCO/UBA/ZENITHBANK: Clearly, large banks are the focus across both investor classes; traders should watch for retail-institutional trade divergence, which often signals reversals or new trends.
• Hidden Pattern: Strong overlap between institutional and retail in the big banks (GTCO, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP)—a sign of consensus positioning. This often precedes significant price movements when volume surges on either side.

Hidden Insights & Outlook

• ETF and index products are massively outperforming, but RSI extremes warn of a looming reversion—or at least elevated volatility.
• Defensive yield names (esp. PRESTIGE & LINKASSURE) are catching a technical bid; income-seekers should keep these on the radar.
• Unusually high volumes in CUTIX and others often front-run either corporate activity, incoming news, or a change of ownership—traders could see outsized moves here soon.
• If market turnover continues to shrink and breadth narrows, expect increased choppiness or a possible market-wide pause after a strong run-up YTD.

Note: All returns and indicators are as of close Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Trends can change rapidly. Use technical signals alongside fundamental research for all investment decisions.