NGX Weekly Market Recap: Week Ending Friday, May 9, 2025

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The Nigerian equities market wrapped up the week on a strong note, with the All Share Index (ASI) gaining +1.91% to close at 108,733.40. This marks a clear turn to bullish sentiment versus last week’s marginally negative performance. Year-to-date (YTD) returns improved significantly to +5.38%, up from last week’s +2.77%. Despite this rally, overall market turnover (value traded) cooled marginally (-5.31% W/W), even as total trade volume picked up by +13.21%. Meanwhile, the number of executed trades surged by 18.19% — a clear signal of rising participation and renewed risk appetite.

Market breadth was robust, with 70 advancers versus 35 decliners, delivering a solid 2.0x breadth ratio and further confirmation of accelerating market-wide optimism. A surge of 23 new highs with only one new low suggests strong and broad-based upside momentum.

Key Trends This Week

• Market Breadth & Sentiment:
  • Advancers: 38.89% of stocks moved higher, with 41.67% staying unchanged.
  • Decliners: Only 19.44% of listings registered losses, reflecting a positive sentiment shift.
  • New highs/lows: A robust number of 23 new highs vs 1 new low points to broadening market leadership.
• Top Gainers and Losers (WTD % Change):
  • Gainers:
    • ACADEMY PRESS PLC (ACADEMY): +45.45% (?? RSI: 92.5 – extremely overbought)
    • MULTIVERSE PLC: +43.88%
    • BETA GLASS CO PLC (BETAGLAS): +33.04% (?? RSI: 99.8 – extreme overbought!)
    • INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INSURANCE: +31.88%
    • CHELLARAMS PLC: +31.81% (?? RSI: 100! – parabolic move, caution warranted)
  • Losers:
    • ABBEY BUILDING SOCIETY (ABBEYBDS): -15.66%
    • REGENCY ALLIANCE INSURANCE (REGALINS): -14.06%
    • VFD GROUP PLC: -12.09% (?? RSI: 26.6 – oversold, watch for a bounce!)
    • VETIVA S&P NIG SOV BOND ETF: -11.38%
    • VERITAS KAPITAL ASSURANCE: -10.00%
• Momentum Insights (RSI, MACD, Moving Averages):
  • Bullish Momentum:
    • CHELLARAMS PLC (RSI: 100, 15DMA > 50DMA, positive MACD) – Overheated, possible mean reversion soon.
    • BETA GLASS PLC (RSI: 99.8, 15DMA > 50DMA, strong MACD)
    • SKYWAY AVIATION (RSI: 99.9)
    • ABCTRANS (RSI: 86.9, clear 15DMA > 50DMA) – All signaling continued upside, but technical overbought risk.
    • TIP, NNFM also flashing high RSI and bullish crossover momentum.
  • Bearish Momentum:
    • VFD GROUP (RSI: 26.6, bearish MACD, 15DMA < 50DMA)
    • HALDANE MCCALL (RSI: 4.1 – deeply oversold, watch for bounce if volume spikes)
    • GREENWICH ASSET ETF (RSI: 5.1, negative MACD histogram)
    • DANGCEM (Institutional list, RSI: 26.1, MACD weak, 15DMA < 50DMA)
• Notable Overlaps in Gainers/Losers (YTD vs WTD):
  • CHELLARAM, BETAGLAS, ABCTRANS, TIP, NNFM – appear on both YTD and WTD gainers, confirming their momentum is not just a blip but part of a larger uptrend.
  • VFDGROUP, REGALINS, VERITASKAP – sustained their position on both YTD and WTD loser charts; continue to face structural or fundamental headwinds.
• Turnover & Trading Activity Insights:
  • Turnover value down -5.31% despite rising prices and volume; implies more retail-driven action and possible profit-taking.
  • Deal count sharply higher (+18.19%), revealing more participants and/or increased churning in fast-moving stocks.
  • Volume up, value down: may signal rotation into cheaper (lower-priced) stocks or speculative activity over blue chips.

Sector & Index Recap

Index (Top Outperformers)	Index Value	%Chg WTD	%Chg YTD	Sector Highlight
NGX Banking Index	1,160.06	+4.79%	+6.68%	Banks outperforming: high liquidity, investor rotation into financials
NGX-AFR Bank Value Index	2,629.27	+4.77%	+5.99%	Valuations attractive, spotlight on value-banks, strong upward pressure
NGX Growth Index	7,727.32	+3.60%	-0.46%	Growth stocks rallying near-term, lagging YTD, possible catch-up play emerging
NGX CG Index	3,111.92	+3.49%	+9.99%	Corporate governance leaders prove defensive/offensive
NGX Premium Index	10,413.67	+3.44%	+6.99%	Large caps, blue chips back in favor

Index (Laggards)	Index Value	%Chg WTD	%Chg YTD	Sector Highlight
NGX Insurance Index	656.77	-1.66%	-16.46%	Insurance out of favor, structural headwinds persist
NGX Commodity Index	1,000.61	-0.68%	+0.06%	Relative stability, more sideways than up/down
NGX ASeM Index	1,591.68	0.00%	+0.50%	Microcaps flat; no trend
NGX MERI Growth Index	7,390.00	+0.08%	+13.29%	Long term growth stories showing solid YTD
NGX Sovereign Bond Index	655.60	+0.86%	+8.99%	Safe-haven bid evident YTD

• Banking sector took leadership as evidenced by NGXBNK and NGXAFRBVI both spiking +4.8% WTD. Other top indices like NGXCG and NGX PREMIUM also did well, reinforcing a broad risk-on attitude among both retail and institutional participants.
• Insurance and Commodity indices struggle (NGXINS: -1.65% WTD, -16.46% YTD).
• Growth indices (NGX Growth, NGX MERI Growth) showed some catch-up, perhaps hinting at a rotation into laggards as investors hunt value.
• Bond and Defensive indices show steady if unspectacular performance, suggesting some investors still prefer safety alongside the risk-seeking crowd.

Tables – Top 5 YTD & WTD Gainers & Losers

Week-To-Date (WTD) Top 5 Gainers

Stock	WTD % Change	YTD % Change	RSI	Div Yield
ACADEMY	+45.45%	+37.14%	92.5	3.51%
MULTIVERSE	+43.88%	+24.22%	61.7	0.85%
BETAGLAS	+33.04%	+147.53%	99.8	2.42%
INTENEGINS	+31.88%	-2.67%	59.4	3.40%
CHELLARAM	+31.81%	+181.08%	100.0	1.99%

Week-To-Date (WTD) Top 5 Losers

Stock	WTD % Change	YTD % Change	RSI	Div Yield
ABBEYBDS	-15.66%	+133.33%	55.2	1.43%
REGALINS	-14.06%	-31.25%	49.2	6.52%
VFDGROUP	-12.09%	-63.96%	26.6	0.00%
VSPBONDETF	-11.38%	-36.70%	75.6	0.00%
VERITASKAP	-10.00%	-33.56%	40.5	4.17%

Year-To-Date (YTD) Insights:

• Many of this week’s top gainers – CHELLARAM, BETAGLAS, ABCTRANS, TIP, NNFM – persist as YTD outperformers, revealing strong, multi-week momentum.
• Top YTD losers like VFDGROUP, REGALINS, VERITASKAP continue to underperform, with technicals pointing to sustained bearishness.
• Several top gainers feature respectable (albeit not spectacular) dividend yields, possibly attracting yield-seeking traders. REGALINS and VERITASKAP among the losers rank high in dividend yields, signaling market skepticism about their fundamentals despite income attractions.

Market Activity and Trade Patterns: Retail vs Institutional

Investor Type	Trade Count	Total Volume	Total Gross Trade Amount	Pct by Trade Count	Pct by Volume	Pct by Value
Retail	14,270	147,657,880	?1.39bn	90.63%	32.15%	12.49%
Institutional	1,475	311,564,827	?9.77bn	9.37%	67.85%	87.51%

• Retail dominates by trade count (90.63%) but only a third of total volume/value — highlighting smaller average sizes per trade and speculative activity.
• Institutional activity is concentrated: Only 9.37% of trades, but two-thirds of all volume, and 87.51% by value – confirming that large, meaningful block trades are concentrated among a few names.

Top 5 Most Traded – Institutional

Symbol	Volume	Gross Value (?)	Sector	WTD %Chg
GTCO	50,600,726	?3.49bn	Banking	+8.83%
ACCESSCORP	40,603,629	?876.6m	Other Fin. Inst.	+1.19%
ZENITHBANK	20,156,496	?978.3m	Banking	+4.15%
NAHCO	3,901,634	?323.8m	Transport	+0.61%
DANGCEM	1,029,226	?452.8m	Building Materials	+1.85%

Top 5 Most Traded – Retail

Symbol	Volume	Gross Value (?)	Sector	WTD %Chg
ACCESSCORP	4,562,068	?98.7m	Other Fin. Inst.	+1.19%
ZENITHBANK	1,640,396	?79.6m	Banking	+4.15%
UBA	1,292,424	?44.7m	Banking	+1.92%
GTCO	681,176	?46.8m	Banking	+8.83%
UNIVINSURE	9,420,581	?4.86m	Insurance	-3.77%

• Institutional flows are highly concentrated in top-tier banks (GTCO, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK), which also coincide with highest WTD outperformance within this group.
• NAHCO makes a notable appearance on institutional side—up +0.61% WTD and ranked high in institutional trading, suggesting possible rotational interest from smart money.
• Retail preferences are similarly clustered in financials but with more exposure to insurance and lower-priced stocks (e.g., UNIVINSURE).
• Volume surges: GTCO's volume (institutional side) up +132% over its 90-day average signals strong conviction-driven buying, likely supporting the >8% WTD rally.
• Divergence in retail vs institutional: Institutions overwhelmingly prefer large blocks in banking blue chips (helping drive sector's index leadership), while retail trades more frequently and in lower-value quantities.

Opportunities and Cautions for Traders

• Bullish runners (e.g., CHELLARAM, BETAGLAS): momentum is sky-high but RSIs in the mid/high 90s signal overbought conditions. Trailing stop-losses advised; be alert for sharp pullbacks if volumes dry up or market risk-off returns.
• Potential mean-reversion trades: Oversold stocks with RSI under 30 (VFDGROUP, HALDANE MCCALL, GREENWETF) could see technical bounces if downside momentum stalls.
• Dividend yields: Some high-yield stocks are in downtrends (like REGALINS, DivYield: 6.5%), reinforcing the importance of not chasing yield alone in the face of weak price action.
• Cyclical/rotational opportunity: With bank indices leading and strong institutional flows, sector rotation into growth or lagging segments (NGX Growth Index, MERI Growth) may be a smart second-half 2025 play.
• Rising new highs count, fewer new lows: Stay alert for new leadership emerging beyond recent favorites; catch early moves in high-volume breakouts.

Hidden or Less Obvious Insights:

• Strong breadth + falling turnover value: Suggests the rally is being propelled by a broader swath of lower-priced stocks and "risk-on" sentiment among retail investors, while institutions are selectively accumulating blue chips.
• Persistently negative Insurance Index (NGXINS) combined with high-yield, weak price action in REGALINS and VERITASKAP, is a warning sign that income alone cannot offset sector headwinds.
• RSI extreme clusters: Many WTD gainers cluster above RSI 90, rarely sustainable; market prone to short-term volatility spikes if profit-taking triggers mass reversals.
• 15DMA/50DMA spreads in top gainers reflect parabolic moves: e.g., BETAGLAS (15DMA 115.3 vs 50DMA 104.5) and CHELLARAM (15DMA 8.21 vs 50DMA 7.99). This technical extension is often a late-stage rally marker.
• Institutionals buying NAHCO on volume spikes (up 112% over its 90-day average) could signal an early move into transport/aviation, worth monitoring as a possible sector rotation play.

In summary: The NGX surged this week, with banking stocks carrying the torch, new highs multiplying, and momentum at extremes. Yet, caution flags are up on several front-running names, especially where technicals are stratospheric and institutional turnover is muted. For traders, momentum opportunities abound, but risk needs disciplined management — watch both volumes and sector flows for next leadership group as profit-taking risk rises.

Disclaimer: This market summary has been generated using InfoWARE's advanced AI tools and data analysis techniques. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy and reliability, this content should be used for informational purposes only and should not constitute financial advice. Always consult a professional advisor before making investment decisions.