NGX Daily Market Summary (Monday, June 16, 2025)

Market Snapshot & Weekly Recap

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) started the week on a subdued note, dipping -0.15% to close at 115,429.54. Despite today's cautious session, the market remains up +11.71% year-to-date (YTD). Market turnover surged by +27.59% to ₦20.87B, even as total volume declined to 683.77M from last week's 897.06M.

Market breadth continues to signal risk-off sentiment, with decliners outnumbering advancers 2-to-1 (23 up vs 47 down; breadth ratio: 0.49x). For week-over-week context, last week's robust activity and a narrow rally in select momentum stocks appear to have given way to profit-taking and broad-based weakness, especially in the banking and insurance sectors.

Key Weekly Trends (Jun 9-13, 2025):

• Resilient Turnover: Despite a drop in volume to start the week, value traded is notably higher—implying increased institutional positioning in large-cap and select banking stocks.
• Sector Divergence: While banking stocks fueled last week's recovery, today they dragged ASI lower amid profit-taking and institutional repositioning.

Today's Significant Trends

• Market Breadth: Remains negative (23 advancers vs 47 decliners), signaling weak sentiment. 77 stocks saw volume decline, but 61 stocks had higher activity on the day.
• Turnover Spike: Despite lower overall volume, trade value jumped nearly 28% as institutions rotated into major banks (ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP), suggesting selective bargain-hunting or defensive positioning.
• Institutional Dominance: Institutions contributed a dominant 89.67% of trade value and 72.25% of volume, heavily concentrated in ZENITHBANK (15.33% of institutional value), UBA, and ACCESSCORP.
• ETF and Mid-Cap Play: Top gainer was VETIVA S&P Nigeria Sovereign Bond ETF (+25.81%); notable presence of ELLAH LAKES (+9.93%, RSI 79.4—overbought) among gainers.

Top Gainers & Losers (1 Day % Chg & Technicals)

Top Gainers/Losers: Patterns

• Three (NNFM, UPL, CILEASING) appear on both daily and YTD losers lists, highlighting structurally weak stocks attracting sustained selling.
• ELLAHLAKES: Gained sharply (9.93%); RSI at 79.4 signals overbought zone—risk of pullback rising.
• VSPBONDETF: 25.8% gain, but RSI moderate—sentiment chase into 'safe' bond ETF as equities soften.
• ROYALEX: Gained with rising volume and still not overbought. Dividend yield (7.8%) worth tracking for defensive portfolios.
• GUINEAINS, FTNCOCOA, LIVINGTRUST are also high on short-term momentum, but note the possibility of mean reversion after rapid multi-session runs.

YTD Gainers & Losers Table

Momentum, RSI, MACD and Moving Average Highlights

• Bullish Momentum (RSI > 70, 15DMA > 50DMA, MACD Upside):
  • FIDSON (RSI 97.8): Sustained overbought; strong quarterly and YTD outperformance, but at risk of near-term reversal. Also boasts 4.14% dividend yield and low beta (0.25).
  • ELLAHLAKES (RSI 79.4), MAYBAKER (RSI 78.2): Short-term traders may want to lock in gains, but momentum still positive; buyers remain in control.
  • OANDO (RSI 80.4): Institutional activity strong despite sharp drop (-6.23%); divergence warrants caution.
• Bearish Momentum/Breaching 15DMA:
  • Key banking stocks (ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, FIRSTHOLDCO, FCMB) crossed below 15DMA: significant caution as sector drags.
  • INSURANCE names (SOVRENINS, MBENEFIT, REGALINS), high dividend yields & now negative momentum—a warning for yield chasers.
  • CONOIL (RSI 0.02, MACD sharply negative): Deeply oversold, but continued under institutional selling pressure. A "falling knife"—best observed for reversal signs.
• Contrarian Signal: Several stocks (FCMB, FIRSTHOLDCO, ACCESSCORP) show high abnormal volume but in negative territory, suggesting possible capitulation or near-term bottom formation. Monitor for bullish reversal patterns later in the week.

Contrarian Signals — Hidden Patterns Detected

• ZENITHBANK: -6.37% (high volume, institutional heavy), RSI 62.7, still positive MACD, showing technical resilience despite price weakness. Oversold risk if follow-through selling persists, but high dividend yield (2.25%) and value orientation could attract buyers soon.
• FCMB: Massive volume (111% over 90D avg), -6.57% 1D, but RSI near 50—a potential washout event for patient dip buyers.
• OANDO: Huge volume spike (220% over 90D avg) despite -6.23% drop, but RSI at 80.4—signals extreme volatility, possible retail exit vs. institutional rotation.
• CONOIL: RSI at 0.02 (almost never seen); technically oversold but no reversal signal yet—avoid catching the knife until some confirmation.
• UPL, CILEASING: Both daily and YTD losers; despite technical support (RSI above oversold), momentum is sharply negative. Dead cat bounce possible but overall structure weak.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix — Defensive Opportunities Map

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional trades massively dominant, accounting for over 20% of all value traded today. Watch for follow-through—continued clustering often precedes large directional moves.
• UBA, ACCESSCORP: Similar patterns, though risk is these are now trend-following not bottom-fishing trades. If sector bounces, these will lead.

Unusual Volume — Trading Signals

• ACCESSCORP: 133% above 90D avg vol. Selling into size often signals positional capitulation—watch for near-term reversal or big buyer absorption signs.
• ZENITHBANK: 215% above 90D avg vol. Heavily institutionally traded, typically precedes or signals a major inflection—watch price action next 2-3 days.
• OANDO: 220% volume surge. Huge volatility; technicals mixed—momentum traders should treat with caution.
• FCMB, FIRSTHOLDCO: Over double normal volume but with negative price action. Continue to watch for stabilization before taking fresh positions.

Momentum Table Highlights

• Stocks Above 15DMA (Bullish):
  • MEYER PLC: +6.63%, crossed 15DMA; defensive dividend (3.91%), near-neutral beta—potential for further upside if sector sentiment holds.
  • IKEJAHOTEL: +3.33%, slight PE stretch; moving average momentum positive, but RSI/vol modest. Watch for volume confirmation.
• Stocks Below 15DMA (Bearish): Notable large-caps and key indices (ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, multiple sector indices) are all printing bearish momentum. This aligns with the index breadth drop—caution warranted.

Retail vs Institutional Trade Patterns

• Institutional Investors: Accounted for 72.3% of today's volume and 89.67% of market value. Heavily rotated into ZENITHBANK (15.3% of institutional value), UBA (13.2%), and ACCESSCORP (7.7%).
• Retail Investors: Despite executing 63% of trades, captured just 27.8% of volumes and a mere 10.3% of value. Heavily concentrated in ACCESSCORP and banking plays, but at much smaller ticket sizes—potentially evidence of retail panic selling or stop-outs.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional):
  1. ZENITHBANK (47.0)
  2. UBA (34.1)
  3. ACCESSCORP (20.5)
  4. GTCO (71.5)
  5. OANDO (64.7)
• Top 5 Most Traded (Retail):
  1. ACCESSCORP
  2. ZENITHBANK
  3. UBA
  4. OANDO
  5. FIDELITYBK
  Correlation/Insight: Heavily traded banking names are showing big block institutional trades on sell-off days, often signaling a shakeout near local bottom. These are often the first names to lead any rebound.

Opportunities & Cautions for Traders

• Momentum longs in healthcare (FIDSON, MAYBAKER) and defensive yield stocks (ROYALEX) can still ride the uptrend, but monitor for reversal in overbought situations (RSI>70).
• Banks: Wait for reversal confirmation; RSI not yet oversold, but volume spike indicates likely near-term volatility inflection. Watch next 1-2 sessions for candles with lower tail (reversal signal).
• Bargain Hunters: Watch technicals on YTD underperformers with high dividends—e.g., REGALINS or FCMB—but don't catch falling knives. Seek stabilization or bullish reversal candlesticks.
• Yield Chasers: Be cautious in insurance stocks with high dividends (REGALINS, SOVRENINS)—negative momentum and bearish patterns pose capital loss risk that may overwhelm yield.
• ETF Flows: The sharp rally in VSPBONDETF suggests safe-haven shift; could see follow through if equity weakness persists.
• Profit-Taking: Strong runs in ELLAHLAKES and FIDSON may attract sellers soon; monitor for reversal candlesticks.

Actionable Takeaways / Hidden Insights

• Watch ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP for reversal confirmation—volume and institutional flows suggest groundwork for a pivot, likely leading next up-leg if sentiment improves.
• FIDSON and ELLAHLAKES have exceptionally high RSI—momentum at high risk of exhaustion. Adaptive trailing stops recommended for short-term traders.
• Equity/ETF rotation possible—continued rallies in VSPBONDETF and similar assets may persist while equities exhibit turbulence.
• Yield trap risk: High dividend insurance stocks (REGALINS, SOVRENINS) could underperform further if sector momentum remains negative.

Summary:

The NGX is showing clear signs of profit-taking and sector rotation as institutional capital pivots to value and liquidity, notably in the banking sector. Momentum names are running hot, led by healthcare and ETFs, but extreme overbought readings demand discipline. On the defensive, dividend-yielding and "safe" assets remain topical, but selective caution is warranted—especially as technical signals turn against certain high-yielding insurers and banks.

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