NGX Market Daily Summary – Wednesday, 18 June 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) delivered a healthy +1.95% gain to close at 114,910.16, pushing YTD returns to +13.55%. Despite this upswing, market turnover slipped -10.75% from yesterday to 21.49B, while trading volume also contracted by nearly -20.5% to 602.09M shares. Market breadth leaned positive at 1.24x, with 41 advancers versus 33 decliners—a notable risk-on sentiment, though with some interesting undercurrents revealed by sector breakdowns and technical indicators.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Market Breadth: With 41 stocks advancing vs 33 declining, advancers outpaced decliners by 24%—indicative of broad-based bullish sentiment, albeit with fewer advancers than yesterday.
• Volume Trends: 58 companies saw volume increases, while 83 saw declines, suggesting selective conviction behind today’s winners.
• Turnover: The -10.75% drop in trading value signals some caution or post-rally profit-taking. Institutional trade value concentration remains high at 92.78%.

Top Gainers & Losers Highlights

Stock-Specific Insights & Notable Moves:

• NEM leads gainers with +10% and a strong RSI of 69.5 (approaching overbought)—underscoring robust bullish momentum in insurers.
• BETAGLAS impresses, nearly 10% up and with its 15DMA above 50DMA, supported by high YTD returns (+286.7%).
• SEPLAT displays a contrarian technical: top 5 gainer today, but YTD is still -4.39% and RSI is ~0, highlighting volatility and a possibly oversold rally.
• LEGENDINT and NSLTECH appear as both daily and YTD losers—momentum on the downside is persistent, with negative volume trends worth watching for bottom-fishers.
• GUINEAINS (YTD loser, yet strong MTD gains) hints at near-term mean reversion or short-squeeze behavior, reinforced by a rising RSI and improving volume.

Momentum and Technical Patterns

• RSI Extremes & Momentum: FIDSON exhibits a highly overbought RSI at 98.6, confirming momentum speculation but warning of imminent correction; GTCO and GUINEAINS also indicate high bullish momentum (RSI>70).
• Bullish Crossovers: BETAGLAS, LOTUSHAL15, and SEPLAT have crossed above their 15DMA, signaling continued upside—especially when confirmed by higher-than-average volume.
• Bearish Crossovers: AIRTELAFRI and HONYFLOUR exhibit breakdowns below 15DMA, suggesting sustained selling pressure.
• Unusual Volume Spotlight: ZENITHBANK, CADBURY, ABCTRANS, and NB saw massive spikes (up to 20x trailing avg), often a tell-tale of big institutional moves or news-driven trading.

Contrarian Signals (Conflicting Indicators)

• SEPLAT: Top 5 daily gainer, but RSI at 0.01 and negative YTD (-4.39%) warns the rally may be technical or short-covering, not sustainable.
• BETAGLAS: Strong daily and YTD gains, but MACD is turning negative (potential loss of momentum); similar divergence with other high-flyers.
• NSLTECH: High dividend yield (15.87%) but negative YTD and bearish MA cross—yield trap or buy for value? Risk remains high.

Sector Heatmap Spotlight

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunities)

• High-yield Defensive Picks: CUTIX, NEM and SOVRENINS pair solid yields with low Beta and bullish momentum—potential safe-haven and modest growth.
• Yield Trap Warning: NSLTECH and UPDC have headline yields, but negative momentum with technical breakdowns. Not for the risk-averse.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional trades made up an outsized 20.17% of sector trade value and 27.13% of institutional traded value. Stock surged +463% in volume, confirming accumulation.
• ARADEL: Institutional dominance in trade value (7.01%) and volume spike (+172%)—strong hands either accumulating for a bigger move or quietly distributing.
• DANGCEM: At 4.27% institutional traded value, but with flat price: possible transition zone; prudent to monitor in coming days.

Top 5 Year-to-Date (YTD) Gainers & Losers (as of Wed, 18 June 2025):

• Cross-Referencing YTD & Daily Patterns: BETAGLAS holds both top gainer spots for YTD and daily—a continuation pattern with no obvious mean-reversion signal (yet).
• Red Flags: NSLTECH and OMATEK are persistent laggards; despite high yields, they continue to attract selling pressure.
• Yield & Momentum: REDSTAREX pairs yield and strong YTD gains, but its recent daily breakdown (bearish cross) demands caution.

Market Activity & Trades Summary: Retail vs. Institutional Patterns

• Trade Share: Retail accounted for 64.89% of trades but just 24.85% of volume—suggesting smaller ticket sizes, versus institutional dominance in block trades and value (92.78% of Naira traded).
• Most Traded by Institutional Investors:
  • ZENITHBANK (22.94% by volume, 27.13% by trade value)
  • UBA
  • ACCESSCORP
  • ARADEL
  • DANGCEM
  Concentration in few banking and oil/gas heavyweights indicates institutional confidence or portfolio rebalancing into those sectors.
• Most Traded by Retail Investors:
  • ACCESSCORP
  • ZENITHBANK
  • UBA
  • MTNN
  • GTCO
  Major overlaps suggest retail and institutional money are chasing the same names, boosting liquidity and momentum.
• Hidden Insight: Institutional clustering in ZENITHBANK amid a volume surge points to active accumulation rather than mere trading. Both retail and institutional activity in ACCESSCORP, UBA, and MTNN show these are "battleground” stocks driving index momentum.

Analytical Insights & Strategies for Traders

• Opportunities:
  • Bullish momentum persists in names like GTCO and FIDSON (overbought but strong), and NEM (bullish crossover, high yield).
  • Defensive yield chasers may look at CUTIX and NEM for relative safety.
  • ZENITHBANK’s institutional accumulation and massive volume offer tactical opportunities on any dips.
• Cautions:
  • Yield traps (e.g., NSLTECH, UPDC): avoid blindly chasing dividends in the face of technical breakdowns and persistent bearish sentiment.
  • FIDSON and GTCO RSI values are in rarefied overbought territory—be ready for possible mean-reversion or profit-booking.
  • Stocks with high recent advances and declining volume (e.g., GUINEAINS) risk sudden reversals.
• Bullish Continuation likely if institutional volume remains high in banking and industrial names; monitor for sector rotation as insurance and packaging begin to advance.
• Contrarian Alert: Watch for sharp snapbacks in bid-after heavy selloffs among technical laggards if market breadth remains positive.

Summary Table: Bullish and Bearish MA Crosses (Sparklines reflect 15D/50D Crossovers)

(*Sparklines are representative for MA trend direction: up, down, flat)

This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct further analysis or consult a financial advisor before taking any position.