NGX Weekly Market Summary: Week Ending June 20, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) surged this week, closing at 118,138.22 — a +2.50% weekly gain, notably stronger than last week's modest +0.53%. Year-to-date performance climbed further to +14.50% (up from +11.87% last week), signifying continued bullish sentiment. Market activity was strong: trade value soared by +54.42% and trade volume by +41.67% week-on-week, while deals rose by +33.09% to 92,493. Market breadth was bullish, with a solid Breadth Ratio of 1.38x (62 advancers versus 45 decliners). Financial sector indexes led the rally with double-digit pops, and there were 24 new highs versus just 5 new lows — clear evidence of robust risk appetite and capital rotation into winners.
Notable bullish momentum stocks flashed technically overbought signals, while ETF and insurance quakes provided pockets of sharp decline, highlighting selective risk in both momentum and value areas.

Key Market Trends:

• Market Breadth:
  • Advancers: 62 (34.44%), Decliners: 45 (25.00%), Unchanged: 40.56% — signaling overall bullish participation.
  • Market Breadth Ratio: 1.38x, Breadth Percent: 59.44%.
  • New highs vastly outpaced new lows (24 vs 5), indicative of sustained buying pressure and rotation into leaders.
• Top Gainers (WTD):
  • UPL (+20.64%): University Press PLC showing strong QTD and YTD momentum (+54.76%, +56.36%); RSI at 61.73 — bullish but not overbought yet.
  • BETAGLAS (+19.43%): RSI at 76.51, YTD return sky-high at 325.27% — a standout multi-month winner with technical overheat warning (RSI >70).
  • LIVINGTRUST (+18.88%): RSI at an extreme 100.00; technical overbought. Up +55.25% YTD, with low beta and volatility, suggesting stable performance but caution on correction.
  • GTCO (+18.81%): Banking heavyweight, RSI 78.78, MACD, and Moving Average crossovers all screaming bullish. Up +49.04% YTD.
  • DEAPCAP (+17.28%): Despite a high dividend yield (13.76%), YTD return is deeply negative (-20.83%). Suggests "yield trap" risks.
  • Others: BERGER (+16.00%), SOVRENINS (+15.00%).
• Top Losers (WTD):
  • VSPBONDETF (-20.38%): Major drag, but some prior MTD strength (+15.00%). Remains -11.28% YTD.
  • GREENWETF (-18.98%): RSI at 18.74, deeply oversold (<30); YTD loss -47.76%. Caution warranted — high risk of dead cat bounce or future capitulation.
  • SUNUASSUR (-12.81%): Still collapsing, YTD -60.86%.
  • MERGROWTH (-10.00%): Also showing extreme weakness (RSI 16.62), down -6.69% YTD.
  • NNFM (-7.99%): Oddity with strong YTD momentum (>+100%). Likely normal volatility after a stellar run.
  • Several ETFs and insurance names saw heavy pressure, potentially due to sector-wide fund outflows or portfolio rebalancing.

Momentum & Technical Patterns:

• Bullish Momentum (RSI >70, MACD cross, MA cross):
  • BETAGLAS (RSI: 76.51), LIVINGTRUST (RSI: 100.00), GTCO (RSI: 78.78), BERGER (RSI: 71.16), NEM (RSI: 92.81), ELLAHLAKES (RSI: 73.96), PRESCO (RSI: 84.87), MTNN (RSI: 86.19)
  • All exhibiting strong technical overbought signals and short-term momentum. Momentum traders beware of possible short-term pullbacks — especially where RSI is extremely high (LIVINGTRUST, NEM).
  • Several (e.g., GTCO, PRESCO, MTNN) have 15DMA > 50DMA and positive MACD Histogram — supporting uptrends.
• Bearish Momentum (RSI <30, negative MA cross, negative MACD):
  • GREENWETF (RSI 18.74, MACD negative), MERGROWTH (RSI 16.62, negative MACD), HMCALL (RSI 19.02); all technically oversold — shoulders of further downside risk or oversold snap-back trades.
  • Others showing declining moving averages and continued weak momentum: SUNUASSUR (RSI < 40, Weak), VFDGROUP (RSI 31.19), notable for extremely poor YTD numbers.
• Volume Patterns:
  • Turnover sharply increased, suggesting institutional interest and possible rotation into financial sector leaders and high momentum stocks (notably the top gainers also saw high traded values among institutional investors).
  • Several top gainers have multi-month outperformance, a sign of trend-following and potentially crowded trades.
• YTD/WTD Overlap Insight:
  • Certain names (BETAGLAS, GTCO, PRESCO, NEM, ELLAHLAKES) feature both as significant YTD and WTD outperformers — strong compounding effect.
  • NNFM is a rare case: Top WTD loser but remains a top YTD gainer — classic profit-taking and volatility on outsized prior winners.
  • DEAPCAP’s positive week stands out against deep YTD losses, aided by a high dividend yield — might attract risk-tolerant value seekers.
  • SUNUASSUR, VFDGROUP as multi-period underperformers — avoid until basing patterns emerge.
• Dividend Yield Patterns:
  • Some high dividend stocks (e.g., DEAPCAP, FIDELITYBK at 5.48%, UBA at nearly 6%) are also featuring mixed technicals; watch for "yield traps" when price momentum is stalling but dividend appears high.
  • FIDELITYBK, UBA, and SOVRENINS (WTD gainer, 3.75% yield) — may interest yield investors eyeing both income and price appreciation.

Indexes Performance Table

• Banking indexes (NGXAFRBVI +9.53%, NGXBNK +7.87%) vastly outperformed, as institutional activity, risk-on sentiment, and strong YTD leadership prevailed.
• NGXCG Index (+6.76% WTD, +19.76% YTD) and the Dividend Yield Index continued to attract capital — evidence of a hunt for quality, governance, and income stocks during sustained rallies.
• NGXOILGAS snapped back +6.22% WTD (though still -7.77% YTD), signaling sector bottom-fishing but medium-term caution for new money.
• NGXSOVBND (-0.78% WTD) — defensive rotation out of bonds into equities likely as risk appetite improves.
• Consumer goods continue to shine on a YTD basis (+45.36% YTD).
• Industrial index and ASeM remain weak or flat, lagging the broad trend.

Top 5 Year-To-Date (YTD) Gainers & Losers

Top 5 Week-To-Date (WTD) Gainers & Losers

• Overlaps:
  • BETAGLAS, GTCO feature on both WTD/YTD gainers lists; GREENWETF, SUNUASSUR, VFDGROUP feature among WTD/YTD losers.
  • DEAPCAP: Strong WTD bounce on a weak YTD; potential short squeeze or technical correction.
  • NNFM, despite being a WTD loser, remains among YTD top gainers — healthy profit-taking or possible trend reversal.

Market Activity & Trades Summary Analysis

• Institutions accounted for only 37% of trades but over 91% of value — their trades are larger, high-conviction, and focused on liquid large-caps, especially banks and telcos.
• Top 5 Institutional Most Traded: ZENITHBANK, GTCO, MTNN, ACCESSCORP, FIDELITYBK
  • All are liquid, blue-chip financials/telecom — overlaps visible with the week's best gainers, underlining smart money focus on sector strength and momentum breakouts.
  • GTCO and MTNN feature both as technical leaders and institutional favorites — a strong confluence for trend-followers.
  • FIDELITYBK offers a notable dividend — attractive for yield-chasing funds.
• Top 5 Retail Most Traded: ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, UBA, MTNN
  • Retail flow is concentrated in the same prime banking/telecom names but with much smaller average trade sizes.
  • Retail interest tends to chase momentum, mirroring institutional positioning for GTCO and MTNN; synchrony between retail and institutional focus is often a short-term bullish sign but can lead to rapid reversals when sentiment turns.
• All five top institutional and retail names are among the week's outperformers, suggesting high liquidity, robust price action, and the virtuous cycle of institutional and retail flows reinforcing trends in those stocks.
• Volatility Alert: Lower trade count but higher value/volume by institutions implies concentration risk — quick reversal risk exists if institutions unwind positions.

Suggestions & Outlook for Traders

• Bullish sectors: Banking, select consumer goods, and telecommunications continue to enjoy strong technical and institutional support — pullbacks on leaders like GTCO, MTNN, ZENITHBANK could offer attractive entries.
• Momentum caution: Several names (LIVINGTRUST, BETAGLAS, NEM, GTCO) are flashing extreme overbought conditions. Traders should be prepared for sharp corrections or use trailing stops to lock in gains.
• Yield traps: High dividend stocks with negative price momentum (e.g., DEAPCAP) should be approached with risk controls — double-check underlying fundamentals before allocating for income.
• Bearish signals: Avoid or strictly monitor names with weak technicals and negative momentum (GREENWETF, MERGROWTH, HMCALL, VFDGROUP). Quick bounces are possible, but trend is against them.
• Rotation Themes: The strong performance in previously lagging oil/gas stocks could indicate early sector rotation; nimble traders should watch for confirmed strength before chasing.

Hidden Insights/Final Thoughts:
- Liquid, institutionally-owned large caps are currently dictating the NGX's direction and momentum.
- Overlaps in top gainers (WTD/YTD), trade volumes, and institutional focus offer a valuable edge — these are where trends last and reversals accelerate.
- Technical extremes (e.g., RSI near 100) should make traders cautious — but these also signal "crowded trades" where momentum and volume are self-reinforcing.
- Keep a close eye on turnover spikes — they foreshadow institutional rotation and short-term volatility.
- Finally, defensive sectors (bonds, industrials) underperformed, signaling the "risk-on" nature of this phase of the market cycle, but are worth monitoring for any sign of sentiment reversal.