Weekly Market Summary: NGX All Share Index Powers Higher Amid Broad Sector Gains

The Nigerian Stock Exchange capped off a powerful week, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) surging 2.67% WTD, closing at an all-time high of 147,040.06. Market breadth was strikingly positive, as advancers far outnumbered decliners, reflecting a strong bullish undertone. Momentum was particularly evident in the Industrial sector, while turnover and traded volume tapered off after recent record activity. The market’s positive sentiment pushed the YTD gain for the ASI to an impressive 42.51%. Such a high watermark indicates strong institutional conviction–even as the week’s traded value and volume retreated sharply, suggesting a possible short-term pause in liquidity that traders should watch closely. Sector leadership, ETF outperformance, and technical momentum patterns offer telling signals for the coming weeks.

Key Market Breadth & Trends

• Market Breadth: This week saw an aggressive tilt towards advancers, with a robust 63 advancers vs. 33 decliners (Breadth ratio: 1.91x). Advancers accounted for 35.00% of stocks versus just 18.33% for decliners–a highly bullish signal.
• Turnover: Notably, despite the bullish price action, both value and volume traded posted a marked decline from last week (-93.77% value; -61.92% volume). This signals that gains were achieved on lighter liquidity, requiring vigilance for potential volatility spikes or reversal on renewed selling.

Top Gainers & Losers (WTD)

• Gainers Standouts:
  • STANBIC IBTC ETF 30 (STANBICETF30): +42.82% WTD, 345.95% YTD. RSI: 90.96 (heavily overbought); continues to be a core momentum leader with new all-time highs.
  • MERISTEM VALUE ETF (MERVALUE): +42.15% WTD, 72.26% RSI: 85.99; facilitated strong inflow possibly due to rotation into ETFs.
  • UACN PLC (UACN): +24.74% WTD, 193.78% YTD. RSI: 80.76 - notable price jump, and may be attracting momentum chasers.
  • NCR (NIGERIA) PLC (NCR): +20.97% WTD; an extraordinary surge with an astronomical +1221.82% YTD move and extremely high RSI of 99.72.
  • Industry & ETF Leadership: ETFs (particularly STANBICETF30, MERVALUE, VETGRIF30) dominate weekly upward momentum–indicative of broad sector plays or institutional rotation strategies.
• Losers Notables:
  • UNION DICON SALT PLC (UNIONDICON): -10.00% WTD, RSI retreating to 44.97 – clearly out of favor.
  • LEGEND INTERNET PLC (LEGENDINT): -9.91% WTD, down -19.35% YTD, RSI: 40.58.
  • ABCTRANS: -9.88% WTD. YTD still deeply green, but momentum stalling.
  • NEWGOLD ETF: -7.82% WTD; a rare underperformance for a usually defensive ETF, with RSI at 43.14.
  • CAP PLC: -6.16% WTD. Notable negative momentum with RSI slipping to 20.82 and a declining MACD.

Market Insights, Technical Momentum & Predictions

• Implications of Turnover Decrease:
  • Thin liquidity, as evidenced by the -93.77% drop in value and -61.92% in volume, could amplify volatility and suggests that recent gains may be vulnerable to sudden large trades or profit-taking. Watch for potential whipsaws if profit-booking emerges.
• Advancing vs. Declining Stocks: Momentum remains strongly favoring advancers, especially ETFs and industrials. New 5-week highs suggest confidence.
• Unusual Volumes:
  • ZENITHBANK (institutional volume: 57.77M shares), ACCESSCORP (42.57M shares); both feature on top traded institutional and retail lists, signaling ongoing institutional accumulation.
• Year-to-Date Top Gainers/Losers & Momentum:
  • Aggressive returns in STANBICETF30 (YTD: 345.95%), NCR (1221.82%), and strong outperformance of ETFs/industrial-linked stocks. Caution is warranted for mean-reverting corrections as RSIs are extremely high.
  • Bullish momentum (RSI > 70 & positive crossovers, 15DMA > 50DMA):
    • STANBICETF30 (RSI: 90.96), NCR (99.72), GUINNESS (76.69), UACN (80.76) possibly ripe for short-term consolidation after outsized runs.
    • Most gainers display positive "golden cross” (15DMA > 50DMA) signals and positive MACDs supporting the trend.
  • Bearish momentum (RSI < 30, negative crossovers):
    • CAP (RSI: 20.82), NEWGOLD ETF (sliding, but not oversold yet), LEGENDINT (RSI: 40.58 but negative trends and MACD below signal line).
    • Watch CAP for possible oversold bounce; but trend remains negative into next week.
• Dividend Yield Watch:
  • High-dividend stocks such as CAP (div yield 4.13%), GUINNESS (11.51%), NCR (61.22%) are interesting, but bearish momentum for CAP suggests dividend yield may not attract buyers until technicals recover, whereas GUINNESS and NCR combine high yield with bullish signals – especially attractive for income plus momentum strategies.
• Suggestions for Traders:
  • Momentum chasers should be alert for reversal/risk-off signals in overbought leaders (STANBICETF30, NCR, GUINNESS) and tighten stops. Rebalancing flows may rotate into laggards (e.g., CAP or NGX Oil/Gas Index stocks) for mean reversion moves.
  • Liquidity-sensitive strategies would do well to keep trade sizes in check, given thinner traded volumes.
  • New highs in ETFs offer tactical vehicles for sector rotation plays; but monitor for sudden profit-taking.

Index Performance Review & Sector Rotation Insights

• Sectors Outperforming: The Industrial sector (+7.46% WTD), and Premium (+5.46%) indexes led by wide margins; further, NGX MERI VALUE and NGX-AFR Bank Value benefitted from broad-based strength, underscoring a rotation into value and blue-chip names.
• Sectors Lagging: NGX Oil/Gas (-0.46% WTD / -1.00% YTD), NGX Growth (-0.66% WTD), and NGX ASeM (-12.05% YTD) all reflected pockets of underperformance or risk aversion in select corners of the market.
• Hidden Insights: Despite its weekly loss, the NGX Growth Index remains a blistering YTD outperformer (+89.20%), suggesting recent weakness could present a buying opportunity for patient investors.

Top 5 YTD Gainers & Losers

Top 5 WTD (Week-to-Date) Gainers

Top 5 WTD (Week-to-Date) Losers

• Note the substantial overlap: STANBICETF30, UACN, and NCR appear in both top YTD and WTD gainers, reflecting sustained momentum and possible trend-following opportunities.
• LOSERS (WTD): While most only suffered single-digit losses, CAP stands out as a high-yield, large cap that could attract mean-reversion buyers, but only after technical stabilization.

Market Activity: Institutional vs Retail Patterns

• Institutions continue to dominate in both volume (71.09%) and value (89.94%), even though retail trading makes up the bulk of trade count (64.95%). This suggests institutional block trades were key liquidity drivers.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional):
  • ZENITHBANK (57.77M shares) – consistent with ETF/Bank value sector outperformance, institutional appetite strong.
  • MTNN (5.97M), ACCESSCORP (42.57M), ARADEL (1.60M), PRESCO (234k).
  • Heavy institutional rotation into banks and blue-chip telecom (MTNN).
• Top 5 Most Traded (Retail):
  • MTNN (180.9k shares), ACCESSCORP (3.52M), ZENITHBANK (1.69M), GTCO (0.59M), ELLAHLAKES (3.65M).
  • Heavy retail trading in large, liquid names matches institutional flow, confirming broad-based bullish conviction. Note strong presence of ACCESSCORP and ZENITHBANK on both lists.
• Hidden Opportunity: Large cap, high liquidity stocks continue to attract both retail and institutional participation. Investors would do well to focus on these for short-term trading strategies, as liquidity provides better entry/exit opportunities.
• Unusual Activity: Institutional trade blocks are pushing volumes much higher than retail, especially in the banking sector. This was a key factor in the week’s strong sector outperformance.

Strategic Takeaways & Opportunities

• Bullish trend remains intact, particularly in Industrial, Premium, and banking/value sector stocks and related ETFs. Stick with strength but use trailing stops on overbought leaders.
• Monitor laggards such as NGX Oil/Gas Index, CAP PLC (oversold), and NGX Growth Index for mean-reversion or sector rotation plays as rebalancing may be imminent.
• Income seekers: Look to high-dividend momentum names (NCR, GUINNESS) for opportunities to combine yield and capital gains; avoid technically bearish, high-yielding names until a base is formed.
• ETF momentum is very strong; ETF rotation strategies favored.
• Thin volume is a watch item; be nimble and cautious in large positions.

Final Word:

Market momentum is squarely positive, led by ETFs and industrials, with institutions driving gains on lighter liquidity. The overbought condition in leading stocks (very high RSI values) warrants near-term caution and tighter risk controls particularly for aggressive traders. Still, the positive market breadth and sector rotation into value and blue chips suggest continued upside potential as long as liquidity does not further deteriorate.