NGX Weekly Market Wrap: Week Ending May 2, 2025

This week, Nigeria’s equities market delivered a nuanced performance as investors weighed mixed earnings outlooks, sectoral rotation, and technical signals. The NGX All Share Index (ASI) closed marginally -0.08% lower at 106,042.57, after achieving a high of 106,124.14 and a low of 105,800.85. Despite this slight pullback, YTD gains ticked up to 2.77%, reflecting a market still holding onto cautious optimism. Market turnover surged by 24.77% while overall volume increased 16.39%, and trade deals jumped a robust 27.72% week-on-week—indicative of heightened activity and possibly repositioning as the investing landscape evolves.

Market Breadth and Participation

• Breadth Ratio: Strong at 1.40x, with 56 advancers outpacing 40 decliners (53.33% breath).
• Advancers/Decliners: 31.11% of stocks advanced, 22.22% declined, and a notable 46.67% were unchanged—suggesting sideways action with a subtle bullish tilt.
• Volume Patterns: 141 companies saw rising volume as 137 experienced declines—mirroring a dispersion in conviction and sectoral rotation.
• Highs/Lows: 17 new highs vs. just 1 new low: Bullish undertone despite index stalling.

Top WTD Gainers & Losers — Key Highlights

Year-to-Date (YTD) Gainers & Losers — Market Shifts

• Momentum Overlaps: ABCTRANS and NAHCO are both top WTD gainers and YTD gainers — indicating sustained investor interest and strong momentum. Conversely, MULTIVERSE and DAARCOMM appear on both WTD and YTD losers' lists — warning of persistent negative sentiment.
• Dividend Insights: NAHCO (6.66%), FIDSON (4.14%), BETAGLAS (2.42%), ABCTRANS (2.19%) blend capital gains with above-average dividend yields. Combining both value and momentum for possible income growth plays.

Momentum Signals and Technical Analysis via RSI/MACD/Moving Averages

• Bullish Momentum Detected:
  • ABCTRANS (RSI: 86.14, MACD bullish, 15DMA > 50DMA) – Overbought yet with strong momentum; caution for late entries.
  • LOTUSHAL15 (RSI: 76.43, MACD sharply positive, 15DMA > 50DMA) – Momentum ETF, robust technicals.
  • NAHCO (RSI: 78.15, MACD positive, 15DMA > 50DMA) – Both dividend & price run-up.
  • NB (Nigerian Breweries) (RSI: 79.27, MACD strong, 15DMA > 50DMA) – In bull phase; be aware of possible pullbacks from overbought.
  • FIDSON (RSI: 77.83, MACD bullish, 15DMA > 50DMA) – Healthy med-tech uptrend.
  • BETAGLAS (RSI: 81.38 despite a slight MACD dip) – Blistering YTD rally and strong technicals.
  • PRESCO (from activity tables: RSI 99.71, steeply overbought, 81% YTD, with an institutional buying spike).
• Bearish Momentum Detected:
  • MULTIVERSE (RSI: 8.91, MACD negative, 15DMA < 50DMA (8.11 vs. 8.91)) – Oversold, possible dead-cat bounce, but deep negative momentum.
  • MERVALUE (RSI: 0.98, MACD & 15DMA down) – Clear technical breakdown. Also worst YTD.
  • BERGER (RSI: 1.74, MACD negative, 15DMA < 50DMA) – Severe loss of momentum, possible further weakness ahead.
  • SIAMLETF40 (RSI: 32.85, MACD sharply negative, YTD -66%) – Technically and fundamentally weak; avoid.

Market Activity & Trade Structure

• Retail vs Institutional Patterns:
  Retail made up 87.3% of trade count but controlled only 34.71% of volume and 13.46% of value. Institutional investors, with 12.7% of trades, gobbled up 65.29% of volume and drove 86.54% of turnover — showing their influence on large-cap price movements and liquidity.
• Most Traded Symbols:
  • Institutional: GTCO, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, PRESCO — Primarily large, liquid names and sector leaders with ongoing price corrections or fresh breakouts (see PRESCO for example, 81% YTD with huge volume spike; institutional accumulation ongoing).
  • Retail: ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, UBA, MTNN — Heavily overlap with institutional list, reaffirming where broader market focus lies, though retail trades in much smaller lots, indicating layering/position building.
  Correlation: Stocks with high institutional activity tend to feature in major index movements and momentum lists (especially PRESCO, MTNN, GTCO)—suggesting trailing the "smart money” could be effective for active investors.
• Unusual Activity: PRESCO’s institutional volume is 195% above its 90-day average, indicating a possible breakout or re-rating on strong fundamentals or news.

Index Performance: Sector & Style Trendlines

• Outperformance: Consumer Goods (+17.95% YTD) and Growth stocks (+13.46% YTD) leading the charge, signaling continued demand for non-cyclical and high-growth names.
• Underperformance: Insurance sector (NGXINS -17.28% YTD, -3.19% WTD) and Value themes remain out of favor, possibly due to risk aversion and lingering macro headwinds.
• Rotation Watch: Banks & Value Indexes in moderate decline despite prior resilience—watch for mean reversion or further de-risking.

Trends, Hidden Insights & Actionable Ideas

• Turnover Surge: A 25% jump in market turnover, matched by an increase in volume and trade count, points to renewed institutional engagement—potentially the early phase of a broad rotation or positioning into select large- and mid-cap names.
• Momentum Sustainers: Several WTD gainers (ABCTRANS, NAHCO, BETAGLAS) show up in YTD gainers too, indicating true "leaders” favored by both speculators and long-term players.
• Overbought Red Flags: Many WTD gainers have RSIs above 70 (notably PRESCO, NAHCO, NB, FIDSON, ABCTRANS), cautioning against fresh aggressive buys—watch for healthy pullbacks.
• Bargain Spotting: Bearish momentum and extremely low RSIs (BERGER, MULTIVERSE, MERVALUE) could attract value contrarians—but technicals warn of catching falling knives.
• Sector Leadership: Consumer Goods and select Growth/Islamic thematic indexes continue to outperform. Strategy: tilt toward strong sectors and avoid persistent laggards (Insurance, Value).
• Dividends Plus Momentum: NAHCO, FIDSON, and BETAGLAS are delivering both price appreciation and attractive yields—a blend many smart investors seek during late-bull or high-uncertainty phases.
• Smart Money Focus: Institutions dominate volumes/value in GTCO, ZENITHBANK, PRESCO, MTNN—use these as "sentiment meters” for sector trends as well as potential breakout confirmation.
• Bullish Watchlist: ABCTRANS, FIDSON, NAHCO, LOTUSHAL15, NB, PRESCO, BETAGLAS
  Bearish Caution: MULTIVERSE, MERVALUE, BERGER, SIAMLETF40
• Retail Participation: Retail is active but dwarfed by institutional size and value, especially in main liquid names—meaning institutional flows will set the tone for breakouts and corrections.

Advice for Traders and Investors

• Momentum Seekers: Wait for shallow pullbacks in overbought leaders before adding; trend is up, but risk of exhaustion is rising.
• Income Seekers: Target stocks like NAHCO, FIDSON, and BETAGLAS, which deliver a blend of growth and dividend.
• Value Hunters: Extremely oversold names may see bear market rallies, but play these with tight stops and only with short-term horizons.
• Sector Rotation: Consider under-owned outperformers in Consumer Goods and Growth, but avoid Insurance and Value sectors until bottoming signals appear.
• Follow the Volume: Track institutional flows in large caps, theme ETFs, or YTD outperformers to gauge true leadership and conviction.
• Currencies: The Naira’s marginal appreciation (+0.19% vs. USD) is supportive of short-term investor sentiment, especially for dollar-sensitive importers and consumer sectors.