NGX Daily Market Summary: Wednesday, August 27, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) tracked a modest -0.36% retreat to 141,761.36, even as YTD returns remain a robust 36.90%. Market activity heated up: turnover surged 39.14% to ₦16.73B and trading volume increased to 621.25M. Despite this liquidity boost, the market breadth was weak at 0.44x with decliners (43) far outpacing advancers (19), pointing to pronounced broad-based pressure. Standouts included the VETIVA S&P Nigeria Sovereign Bond ETF (VSPBONDETF) with its eye-popping +17.40% rally, while the Naira slumped sharply by -1.18% against the USD. Institutional trades dominated value and volume flows, especially concentrated in banking giants and blue chips.

Key Market Trends in Bullet Points

• Market Breadth: Only 19 advancers vs. 43 decliners (breadth ratio 0.44x), highlighting broad-based weakness even as overall activity was strong.
• Top 5 Gainers:
  • VSPBONDETF: +17.40% (Closed at ₦247.80) – Huge price action with technical breakout. Noteworthy for positive momentum and high volatility (RSI: 43), though not yet overbought.
  • VETGRIF30: +7.71% (Closed at ₦51.70) – ETF volatility again, but reversed fortunes (also appears in top losers due to weekday volatility).
  • DEAPCAP: +4.82% (₦1.74) – Momentum supported by RSI (56), signaling continued buy interest.
  • LEGENDINT: +4.63% (₦5.65) – Mid-tier name, positive move but still with moderate RSI—rally not yet extended.
  • HONYFLOUR: +4.17% (₦22.50) – Mild upward move consistent with improving sector sentiment.
• Top 5 Losers:
  • CORNERST: -10.00% (₦6.39) – Hit hard, dragged by strong bearish move. RSI at 59, not oversold, indicating more downside?
  • RTBRISCOE: -10.00% (₦3.06) – Heavy fall, low RSI, highlights capitulation risk.
  • SIAMLETF40: -10.00% (₦586.09) – Overbought ETF (RSI: 84.5), aggressive correction may not be over.
  • ABCTRANS: -9.80% (₦4.51) – Confirmed uptrend reversal with RSI at 57.9, bears in control.
  • NGXGROUP: -9.70% (₦53.55) – Unusual for exchange—signals shifting confidence or portfolio rebalancing by big investors.
• YTD Movers Table (Top 5 as of Wednesday):

  Stock	Symbol	YTD %Chg	RSI	5 Day %Chg	1 Day %Chg
  VERITAS KAPITAL	VERITASKAP	+47.65	60.13	+11.11	0.00
  GEREGU Power	GEREGU	-0.74	48.13	+11.11	0.00
  MCNICHOLS	MCNICHOLS	+120.50	53.17	+10.94	0.00
  OANDO	OANDO	-18.01	50.73	+10.10	+1.79
  NCR (NIGERIA)	NCR	+110.00	99.13	+10.00	0.00

• YTD Top Losers Table (Top 5):

  Stock	Symbol	YTD %Chg	RSI	5 Day %Chg	1 Day %Chg
  NSLTECH	NSLTECH	+37.68	49.88	-13.64	-3.06
  CAVERTON	CAVERTON	+150.98	50.65	-12.33	-8.83
  UPL	UPL	+43.89	42.48	-12.06	0.00
  CORNERST	CORNERST	+61.36	59.51	-10.00	-10.00
  RTBRISCOE	RTBRISCOE	+11.27	45.53	-10.00	-10.00

Technical & Momentum Insights

• Bullish Momentum:
  • VSPBONDETF crossed above its 15-Day MA (223.74 vs. close at 247.80)—potential start of a new uptrend despite RSI around a neutral 43.0. (Note: No extreme RSI readings & the ETF’s MACD histogram is narrowing, suggesting buyers may still have room).
• Bearish Momentum:
  • CORNERST & ABCTRANS: Both fell sharply after crossing below 15DMA, signaling fresh technical weakness. Their RSI values are not yet oversold, warning that more downside could be possible.
  • Banks/Financials: ACCESSCORP, FCMB, GTCO all broke below their 15DMA and closed down. Heavy institutional activity, but sector is seeing profit-taking/cautious rotation out of banking names after strong YTD runs.
  • UNILEVER, INTBREW, REGALINS: Persistent downtrend, all closing below 15DMA with negative price momentum and no technical sign of reversal.
• Unusual Volume:
  • CUTIX, FCMB, ARADEL: All with volume more than 2x their 90-day average. This often signals either institutional repositioning or rumors ahead of a corporate event. Cutix’s heavy volume during a price slip hints at possible distribution by large holder(s).
  • STERLINGNG: Huge volume (279% of average) but only a modest move up (+0.63%), possible early accumulation or resistance zone.
• Institutional & Retail Patterns:
  • Institutions did only 38.77% of trades but controlled a staggering 70.67% of volume and 90.89% of value—greater than typical dominance.
  • Top Institutional focus: ACCESSCORP, FIRSTHOLDCO, MTNN, GTCO, ZENITHBANK—all key financial services/telecoms blue chips.
  • Retail investors favored similar blue chips but at much smaller trade values and volumes, with NEIMETH sneaking in as a retail favorite—potential for outsized volatility.
  • Correlation: Declines in heavy institutional favorites like GTCO and ZENITHBANK may indicate broad sector rotation or pre-emptive rebalancing ahead of expected macro changes.
• Liquidity & Sentiment:
  • Turnover spiked 39%, but breadth weakened further—rising liquidity into declining prices is often a warning flag for further price weakness or profit-taking regimes.
  • Volume up in 71 companies, showing active churning as investors are repositioning portfolios.
• Currency Headwinds:
  • The Naira's sharp -1.18% fall adds pressure to foreign-currency exposed sectors and puts focus on defensive plays with strong local earnings.

Contrarian Signals

• SIAMLETF40: -10% (₦586.09) despite a heavily overbought RSI at 84.5 and blockbuster previous momentum. MACD still strong, but such high RSI readings typically precede deeper pullbacks.
• CAVERTON: YTD up +150.98%, yet losing -8.83% today with barely neutral RSI—momentum fading, possible distribution phase.
• CORNERST: Down -10% on both 1-day and 5-day, but RSI still at 59—suggests more room to fall but not yet technically oversold, a possible value-trap scenario.
• VERITASKAP: YTD up strongly, yet flat on the day and with neutral RSI; any break could trigger a reversal.

Sector Heatmap & Technical Patterns

Dividend-Yield vs Beta Matrix (Defensive Play Opportunities)

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ACCESSCORP, FIRSTHOLDCO, GTCO, ZENITHBANK, MTNN: Featured as the top institutional targets by value and volume—suggests focus on liquidity and risk management by large players.
• ZENITHBANK: Accounted for over 20.1% of institutional trade value—banking sector under close institutional watch; could be early signal of rotation or consolidation.
• High clustering in first-tier banks and blue-chip telecom—liquidity premium or flight to perceived safety within equities.

Trade Suggestions & Market Outlook

• Traders:
  • Watch for possible short-term bounce-back in stocks with heavy oversold conditions and high volume—particularly in mid- and small-cap names within insurance and banking, but only once reversal signals emerge (e.g., bullish MACD cross).
  • Bullish Setups: VSPBONDETF (ETF break above 15DMA, high volatility—momentum traders may play for further upside, but with tight stops).
  • Caution: Stay away from names with high dividend yield but confirmed technical breakdown (REGALINS, CORNERST)—don't catch a falling knife.
  • Look for defensive allocation in low-beta, high-dividend stocks which have stabilized (AFRIPRUD, HONYFLOUR).
  • Unusual volume signals can precede breakouts or breakdowns; monitor CUTIX and STERLINGNG for followthrough moves (potential for mean-reversion plays).
• Short-term caution remains warranted—expanding volume on declining breadth and the currency’s continued slide may foreshadow more volatility.
• Institutional flow into large-caps could offer cushion but also signals reallocation by big players; retail should follow market leaders closely.

Retail vs Institutional Trade Analysis

• Trade Count: Retail investors made up 61.23% of trades but commanded only 9.11% of traded value — institutions still dictate price and flow.
• Top Institutions’ focus:
  1. ACCESSCORP: 35.6M shares / ₦973M traded
  2. FIRSTHOLDCO: 34.4M shares / ₦1.12B traded
  3. MTNN: 2.1M shares / ₦856.4M
  4. GTCO: 8.6M shares / ₦835M
  5. ZENITHBANK: 6.3M shares / ₦441M
  Pattern: All are large caps, liquid, and sector leaders; this is classic risk-off (flight-to-size) behavior as market choppiness rises.
• Top Retail Traded:
  1. ACCESSCORP
  2. GTCO
  3. MTNN
  4. ZENITHBANK
  5. NEIMETH
  With NEIMETH featuring only among retail, this could indicate speculative buying at lower tier, but without institutional endorsement.
• Hidden Insight: Institutional clustering in ACCESSCORP, GTCO, ZENITHBANK suggests these stocks will continue to set market tone; outsized retail activity not matched by institutional interest (e.g., NEIMETH) may mean temporary spikes rather than sustained rallies.