NGX Weekly Market Summary – Week Ending Friday, August 29, 2025

The Nigerian equity market wrapped up the week on a somewhat tepid note, as the ASI slipped by -0.81%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline – though slightly improved from last week's steeper -2.57% slide. Despite the lackluster price action, Year-to-Date returns remain robust at 35.97% (down just a touch from last week's 36.66%). Market activity was mixed — total turnover improved by 4.37%, but overall trading volume fell sharply by -31.06% and number of deals dipped -6.42%. The breadth of the market favored the bears, with twice as many decliners as advancers. However, pockets of momentum, especially in select smaller-cap names and some insurance stocks, continued to provide opportunities for nimble traders.

?? Key Market Breadth and Trading Trends

• Market breadth ratio at 0.50x indicates a tough trading week for bulls — only 34 stocks advanced versus 68 decliners.
• 18.99% of stocks advanced (below average), 37.99% declined, and 42.46% were unchanged.
• Despite declines, 8 new highs were recorded and no new lows – evidence of resilience in select pockets.
• Volume up for 141 stocks, down for an equal 141 — signaling a split market with traders rotating positions.

?? Top 5 Week-To-Date (WTD) Gainers

?? Top 5 Week-To-Date (WTD) Losers

?? Top 5 Year-To-Date (YTD) Gainers

?? Top 5 Year-To-Date (YTD) Losers

?? Index Performance Overview

Index Insights:

• NGX Growth Index stands out as the week’s only clear outperformer, with a 0.28% WTD gain and a stellar 44.28% YTD, highlighting ongoing appetite for mid/small-cap growth names.
• NGX Insurance saw the sharpest weekly drop (-4.65% WTD), but remains the YTD leader at 63.27%. Classic "profit-taking” signals: strong prior run, now consolidation.
• Banking-heavy indices (NGXBNK, NGXAFRBVI) lost ground (-2.3% and -3.0% WTD) despite healthy YTD numbers, signaling rotation out of Tier-1 banks.
• Bonds/Commodity indexes were essentially flat, mirroring subdued macro sentiment and interest rate drift; Oil/Gas tried to stabilize after heavy YTD losses.

Comparisons:

• Growth and small/mid-cap names remain a bright spot, but the defensive Insurance sector may be entering a consolidation after months of strong YTD gains.
• Banks are lagging short-term – both on a sector and index level; look for potential bottom-fishing as technicals revert.
• OILGAS & ASeM remain laggards YTD, but Oil/Gas's positive WTD move may hint at early sector stabilization.

?? Notable Overlaps & Trends (YTD and WTD Gainers/Losers, Momentum)

• SCOA and NCR stand out as both top YTD and WTD gainers — strong bullish continuity and positive momentum.
• LASACO appears in both the YTD and WTD losers lists, signaling persistent weakness — even after prior bullish runs (now rolling over).
• VSPBONDETF made a notable WTD rebound (best performer) but remains a deep YTD laggard — short-term bounce or value turning point?
• Momentum Spotlight (RSI, MACD, 15D>50D MA):
  • Super-high RSI: NCR (99.13), SCOA (96.60), BETAGLAS (99.22), UNIONDICON (75.09) – all suggest overbought, but with bullish momentum (many also have 15D > 50D MA, reinforcing upside).
  • No clear RSI = 30 names among top gainers/losers; majority of decliners show mid-40s to 60s RSI, indicating oversold conditions are building but not maxed out yet.
• Dividend Yields: NCR, BETAGLAS, and VSPBONDETF among the top gainers/losers show strong or exceptional yields, which bodes well especially if price bases form.
• Unusual Volumes/Turnover: Despite the broad pullback, select names attracted significant new interest, likely hinting at institutional accumulation or short covering.

?? Trading/Investment Insights & Opportunities

• Turnover increased while volume declined — this "value over churn” pattern hints at larger transactions but with fewer overall trades, suggesting bigger players (institutions) are at work and may be selectively scaling into/out of key names.
• Bullish Momentum (RSI > 70, MA cross, MACD):
  • NCR (RSI 99.13, 15D>50D, MACD positive): Very strong momentum, but may be overbought — higher risk of corrections.
  • SCOA (RSI 96.60): Also running extremely hot; macro factors (possible strategic deal?) needed to justify such a move.
  • BETAGLAS (RSI 99.22) and UNIONDICON (RSI 75.09): Continued strong flow; caution for those chasing at these levels.
• Bearish Momentum: None of the WTD losers have RSI below 30 — most are mid-range, possibly setting up stabilization and reversal opportunities rather than total collapse.
• Insurance sector worth watching: big YTD winners, but profit-taking signaling possible pause — yet with long-term momentum largely intact.
• High dividend/defensive plays: NCR, BETAGLAS, VSPBONDETF all offer notable yields — look for mean-reversion, especially if macro or sector demand returns.
• Traders: Watch for quick mean-reversion in overextended gainers (RSI>90), and potential bounces in decliners that aren't oversold (RSI in the mid-40s to 50s).
• Caution: In a breadth-challenged market with low new lows, avoid laggards unless real capitulation is seen. Leaders can keep leading, but exits must be nimble.

?? Market Activity & Investor Behavior (Retail vs Institutional)

• Institutions accounted for 57.6% of volume and a commanding 82.2% of transaction value on just 38.9% of trade count – evidence of fewer but much larger trades.
• Retail investors dominated by number of trades, but remained minor in volume/value — their flows are more dispersed and smaller-sized, less likely to move prices dramatically.

Top 5 Most Traded (By Investor Type)

• Each of the institutional most-traded names (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, MTNN, OANDO) are large caps, where institutional presence is both expected and impactful.
• ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, and GTCO appear on both lists, showing strong retail-institutional overlap; heavy two-way flow could set up for high volatility reversals.
• Institutions focused far greater value in banking names despite recent sector underperformance; this may hint at longer-term accumulation even as short-term weakness persists.
• Retail traders preferred these bank stocks as well, but in far smaller average trade sizes, implying sentiment is still positive even as price action falters.
• Volume Shifts: Notably low volume for MTNN despite its capitalization – perhaps rotation or sector fatigue.
• Actionable insight: When both retail and institutional activity aligns in certain large caps, these stocks can experience outsized moves or snap-back rallies post big-volume washouts.

Summary Takeaways & Suggestions for Traders

• The market remains in corrective mode but with significant rotation and stock-picking opportunities emerging — despite negative breadth, pockets of momentum are strong and tested.
• High-momentum winners (SCOA, NCR, BETAGLAS, UNIONDICON) may be overbought, so exercise caution; look for confirmation and be ready to trim or take profits if sentiment shifts.
• Oversold stocks are hard to find (RSI <30 rare), but WTD laggards like LASACO (also a YTD loser) could stabilize soon as bearish momentum rarely runs unbroken for long.
• Banks and Insurance: Bulls may benefit from watching weekly reversals in banks for tactical entry. Insurance — previously hot — could see a longer digestion period.
• Dividend hunters: Consider entry plans for stocks like NCR, BETAGLAS, or even VSPBONDETF on further dips; strong yields offer downside buffer and recovery catalysts.
• Watch the next week’s volume shifts in high overlap stocks and note any breakouts from current low volatility ranges — especially where both institutions and retail are focused.