NGX Weekly Market Summary: Week Ending August 1, 2025

The Nigerian Stock Market delivered a striking performance this week, with the benchmark NGX All Share Index (ASI) rallying by 4.51%, closing at 141,263.05, marking an acceleration from last week’s 1.99% gain. Year-to-date (YTD), the index expanded impressively to 36.91%, up from 30.31% just last week. This strong bullish sentiment was accompanied by substantial market breadth and notable sector-wide moves, even as market turnover and volume both pulled back, suggesting enthusiastic price appreciation on lighter activity. Underneath the surface, sector rotation, momentum clusters, and some eye-catching divergences provided both opportunities and cautions for savvy investors.

Key Market Breadth & Trends

• Market Breadth: Advancers outnumbered decliners, with a breadth ratio of 1.19x (62 advancers vs. 52 decliners) and 41 stocks hitting new highs—an emphatically bullish sign. However, turnover fell by -12.75% week-on-week, and volume softened by -16.84%, suggesting that price momentum may be outpacing participation.
• Market Activity: Despite lighter turnover, 34.8% of stocks advanced, 29.2% declined, and over a third (35.96%) remained flat, highlighting selective risk-taking and potential sector rotation.
• Unusual Volume: Of 281 listed companies, volume increased for 140 but declined for 141, reinforcing the theme of concentrated buying in select names.
• Momentum extremes: 41 stocks at new highs and 0 new lows reflect overwhelming bullish momentum—typically seen at strong trend peaks or before reversals.

Top 5 Week-To-Date (WTD) Gainers

• UACN surged 46.2% for the week, powered by a stunning RSI of 99.5—strongly overbought, suggesting euphoria or possible short-term exhaustion. Watch for a pullback or continued momentum if momentum traders pile in.
• MECURE (+32.1%) also registers as overbought (RSI 83.3) but on less stellar YTD growth, possibly a rotational play.
• CUSTODIAN continues its YTD run, up 128% YTD and 27.9% this week, confirming persistent momentum.
• MERGROWTH ETF’s strong move reflects bullish flows into growth-oriented Nigerian equities.

Top 5 Week-To-Date (WTD) Losers

• ABBEYBDS stands well into oversold territory (RSI 29.95) with a -34.13% plunge, suggesting potential for a technical bounce or further breakdown if fundamentals are sour.
• Cornerstone Insurance and NAHCO saw double-digit falls despite robust YTD performance, possibly reflecting profit-taking or sector realignment.
• Dividend theme: Notice several top losers have relatively high dividend yields—worth watching as a sign of value traps or pending income-driven rebounds.

Momentum & Technical Insights (RSI, MACD, Moving Averages)

• Bullish momentum (RSI & MACD):
  • UACN: RSI at 99.55, strongly above 70, with 15DMA (57.27) well above 50DMA (42.39) ↑↑ Sparkline and positive MACD. Technically, UACN is at overbought extremes but in a robust uptrend.
  • CUSTODIAN, SIAMLETF40, MERGROWTH, WEMABANK: All posting RSIs in the 80s to 90s, clear MACD bullish crossovers, and 15DMA spike well above 50DMA—immediate-term momentum plays but susceptible to bouts of corrective profit-taking.
  • MTNN: Not a classic momentum leader but solid YTD gain and MACD/MA alignment suggest underlying institutional support.
• Bearish momentum:
  • ABBEYBDS: RSI at 29.95 (oversold), negative MACD histogram, falling 15DMA below 50DMA—potential technical weak spot or a dead-cat bounce candidate.

Year-to-Date (YTD) Top Performers & Laggards

• UACN and WEMABANK stand out as YTD and WTD overlappers among gainers — indicating sustained positive momentum.
• FTNCOCOA and HONYFLOUR: Strong YTD gainers but included in this week's losers, signaling possible intermediate top or sector fatigue—closely monitor for bottoming/reversal signals.
• INTBREW is a YTD gainer but on this week’s loser table, a possible rotation or profit-taking situation.

Index Performance: Leaderboard & Laggards

Top 5 Index Performers (WTD & YTD):

Bottom 5 Index Performers:

• Growth & Premium Sectors: Outsized gains in the NGX Growth Index (+10.4% WTD, 42.6% YTD) and Premium Index (+8.6% WTD, 51.7% YTD) show that investors continue to reward high-quality, scalable businesses.
• Sharia/Islamic finance (NGX Lotus Islamic Index): Leading YTD rise at 66.85%—evidence of growing interest in compliant financial vehicles.
• Oil & Gas and Insurance: Remain laggards both for the week and YTD. Particularly, Oil/Gas is underwater YTD (-10.13%) and soft this week (-0.70%). A sector in need of catalysts—remain cautious.
• Bonds & Commodities: Both positive but minor moves this week, SOFT safe-haven bid.

Market Activity/Trades Analysis: Institutional vs. Retail

• Institutions controlled the vast majority of volume and value, despite making fewer trades (41.45% of trade count, but 72.07% of volume and a commanding 89.01% of value) — a strong sign of "big money” driving market direction, especially into a select handful of high-conviction stocks.
• Retail investors dominated in number of trades (59%) but in much smaller size/impact, affirming their activity is dispersed, likely speculative or tactical.

Most Traded Stocks by Institutional Investors

1. ZENITHBANK
2. WAPCO
3. GTCO
4. FCMB
5. UBA

• Observation: The institutional top 5 are primarily banking and financial stocks — evidence that institutions are betting on financial sector resilience or reallocation, especially as financial names also populate WTD gainers.
• FCMB: Noteworthy for an outsized trade volume (259M shares!), well above its 90-day average, suggestive of accumulation or wholesale block trades, potentially by funds or pension operators. Its positive price move (+8% on the day) corroborates this.

Most Traded Stocks by Retail Investors

1. UBA
2. MTNN
3. ACCESSCORP
4. GTCO
5. DANGSUGAR

• Pattern: Retail most active in mid/large cap financials and a leading telecom (MTNN), as well as sugar producer DANGSUGAR. Of note, UBA is popular with both retail and institutionals—typically a marker of broad market confidence or sector "leadership.”
• MTNN: Its featuring on both activity lists and WTD gainers suggests both speculative and institutional support.

Hidden Trends & Insights

• Momentum Clustering: Multiple WTD gainers also figure among YTD leaders (UACN, WEMABANK)—showing trend strength with room for runaway moves, but raising the odds for profit-taking or volatility spikes.
• Dividend Yield "Value Trap” Alert: Several top losers exhibit high yields (Cornerstone, NAHCO), which can be alluring, but the price action warns yields may be skewed by falling stock prices rather than sustainable fundamentals—investors should scrutinize payout sustainability.
• Turnover/Deal Count Down: Negative for trend durability if not reversed; lighter participation as prices surge can foreshadow shallow pullbacks or sector rotations ahead.
• Unusual Volume/Price Slide: FTNCOCOA and HONYFLOUR both YTD gainers but this week’s losers on expanded volume—clear signals of distribution or possible top formation.
• Bullish Institutional Positioning: Financial stocks featuring strongly on institutional volume (FCMB, ZENITHBANK, UBA) reinforce the sector’s role as current "money flow magnet.”

Investor Suggestions & Tactical Opportunities

• Momentum Traders: Consider riding trends in UACN, CUSTODIAN, MERGROWTH ETF, and WEMABANK—tight stop losses recommended due to overbought readings.
• Value/Dividend Investors: Approach high-yield decliners with caution—confirm payout sustainability before jumping in.
• Swing/Reversal Hunters: Watch ABBEYBDS and other sharp decliners with sub-30 RSI for possible technical rebound setups.
• Sector Rotators: Monitor lagging sectors (Insurance, Oil/Gas) for stabilization—could mean bargain entry or, if weakness persists, more to avoid.
• Institutional/Block trade trends: Follow the money—high institutional flows in financials and select blue chips are likely to drive future trend waves.

Currency Watch

• The Naira appreciated slightly by 0.04% against the Dollar, which is broadly supportive of imported inflation and may reinforce positive risk sentiment if trend holds.

Summary Table: Quick View of Top YTD & WTD Movers

Final Word

This was a week of "risk on” exuberance in Nigeria’s equity markets. Mega price runs in growth, industrial and banking stocks underscored the market’s positive risk appetite. But the retreat in turnover and volume, combined with technical overbought signals in many gainers, urges caution. Sectoral laggards and high-yield decliners may present "mean reversion” opportunities, but investors should focus on fundamentals and confirm sustainability before leaping. Finally, institutional activity remains the key tell: follow the "smart” money in the banks and blue-chips, while keeping a wary eye out for reversal signals in overheated momentum stocks.