Weekly Nigeria Stock Market Recap & Insights (Week Ending Friday, November 28, 2025)

It was a week marked by mixed sentiment on the Nigerian equities market as the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) eased -0.07% to close at 143,520.51, slightly slower than last week’s -0.94% decline. The YTD gain trims to 39.10%, still an impressive run for the year. Enlivened trade was evident as market turnover wowed with a 51.77% surge in value and 35.70% jump in volume, with deals up 15.70%. Market breadth edged positive at 1.15x, with 46 advancers outpacing 40 decliners. Notably, a handful of stocks posted eye-popping moves, especially among the week's top gainers, while the losers revealed signs of profit-taking in some previously hot names. Technical indicators highlight a few stocks flashing extreme strength or weakness, deserving close attention by traders.

Significant Market Trends and Insights

• Market Breadth:
  • Advancers (46) slightly exceeded decliners (40), giving a breadth ratio of 1.15x. Roughly 25.56% stocks advanced, 22.22% declined, and over half (52.22%) were unchanged—reflecting a market in pause-mode, digesting the YTD gains.
  • 142 companies saw an increase in volume traded, versus 143 down, showing rotation beneath the surface.
  • Three new highs were recorded with zero new lows, underscoring ongoing underlying bullishness despite index softness.
• Top Gainers (WTD):
  • Ikeja Hotel PLC (45.43%, RSI: 79.44): Exceptional move, with RSI deep into overbought, suggesting a pause or pullback possible. Momentum is hot, but caution warranted.
  • NCR Nigeria (32.97%, RSI: 99.50): Stratospheric momentum (RSI near 100), also up 893.64% YTD! Extreme overbought—seasoned traders will watch for reversal signals.
  • Stanbic IBTC ETF 30 (31.00%, RSI: 78.24): Also overbought with still-strong momentum, possibly ETF-related flows.
  • Heavyweights in gainers’ list have RSI >70—a red flag for near-term overbought conditions in all top 3 WTD performers. Traders: take profits or tighten stops.
  • UACN is up 139.45% YTD and 10.97% WTD, still showing momentum but with RSI (71.79) entering overbought territory.
• Top Losers (WTD):
  • Meyer PLC (-18.89%, RSI: 18.59): Oversold signal, with deep RSI, may be ripe for a technical rebound soon.
  • Greenwich Asset ETF (-17.11%, RSI: 43.52): ETF lost ground, may reflect sector allocation shifts.
  • UPDC PLC (-16.33%, RSI: 35.52): Down sharply despite a strong YTD. Technical weakness building.
  • Notably, several losers like UPDC PLC and SUNUASSUR are still strongly positive YTD, reflecting rotational profit-taking rather than a breakdown in trend.

Deeper Insights & Forward-Looking Views

• Turnover Trends:
  • The 51.77% rise in trade value and 35.70% volume spike, with 15.70% more deals, reveals reawakening trading interest, likely as investors reposition around year-end and react to earnings/dividend flows.
• Advancer/Decliner Dynamics:
  • Market’s shallow loss despite strong YTD run, and the absence of new lows, suggest sellers are not aggressive. Declines are seeing buyers step in promptly, especially as oversold levels emerge (e.g., Meyer PLC).
  • Rotation is ongoing between sectors and styles (value/momentum), as evidenced by diverse names among top gainers/losers.
• Unusual Volumes
  • Access Holdings PLC (ACCESSCORP) traded massive volumes with both institutional and retail interest. Institutional trades led, implying possible smart money activity.
  • Banking stocks in general (UBA, ZENITHBANK) featured both in institutional and retail top activity—sign of persistent sector leadership and liquid two-way flows.
• YTD Momentum Trends
  • NCR Nigeria (893.64% YTD) and Ellah Lakes (360.13% YTD) remain standout momentum darlings. However, many WTD top gainers are also among this year’s biggest advancers—trend persistence evident, but risk of exhaustion growing (watch the RSI!).
  • Few WTD losers (e.g., SUNUASSUR, UPDC PLC) are still triple-digit gainers YTD, implying recent drops may be healthy corrections rather than trend breaks.
• Bullish Momentum Stocks (Trigger signals):
  • NCR Nigeria (RSI: 99.5), Ikeja Hotel (RSI: 79.44), Stanbic IBTC ETF 30: All with RSI above 70, positive MACD histograms, and 15DMA trading above 50DMA—potential for more upside but clearly overheated. Short-term traders consider profit-taking or trailing stops.
  • UACN, CWG: RSI above 70, MACD and shorter-term averages supportive—still in uptrend territory, but likely extended.
• Bearish Momentum Stocks:
  • Meyer PLC (RSI < 20), negative MACD, and confirmed breakdown in short versus longer moving averages—oversold, but no immediate sign of reversal.
  • SUNUASSUR, UPDC: Both RSI in the 30s, MACD negative; further weakness possible before bottoming.
• Dividend Yield Watch:
  • Top gainers/losses feature some high-dividend names, such as PRESTIGE (2.5% yield) and CAVERTON (5.52% yield), as well as MEYER PLC (3.9%, despite being among top losers). This reveals risk—and opportunity: high yielders are attracting bargain hunters after price dips and could be strong rebound candidates for income-focused investors.

Indexes Table Analysis

• Index Outperformance: Fixed income led this week as NGXSOVBND jumped 4.18%, reflecting capital flows into bonds. Banking and value sectors showed resilience, both WTD and YTD.
• Index Underperformance: Industrials (-1.92%) led the decline, possibly due to profit-booking after YTD jumps. Consumer Goods remain top YTD at 97.26% but saw mild pullback WTD, hinting at rotation away from previous leaders.
• Oil & Gas Index continues to underperform, both WTD and YTD, diverging from other sectors. Improved currency stability may be a future upside trigger.

Highlight Tables: Top YTD & WTD Gainers / Losers

• Notable Overlaps: Ikeja Hotel, NCR Nigeria, Stanbic IBTC ETF 30, UACN all feature as top gainers both WTD and YTD—momentum persistence very strong, but RSI suggests profit-taking may not be far off.
• Greenwich Asset ETF again appears among both WTD and YTD losers, highlighting continuing downtrend and sector-specific weakness.

Market Activity/Trade Summary & Patterns

• Institutional vs. Retail Flows:
  • Institutional investors accounted for 38.39% of trades but dominated 74.88% of volume and a hefty 89.30% of trade value—proving that "big money” continues to drive the direction and liquidity of the market.
  • Retail investors were more active by number of trades (61.61%) but with far lesser capital committed (10.70% of value). Their trading was more fragmented and focused on lower-priced or less capital-intensive stocks.
• Most Traded (Institutional Top 5):
  • ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, NGXGROUP
  • All are high-liquidity bank/fintech-related stocks or financial sector ETFs. Signifies: renewed focus on value and stability as year-end approaches. ACCESSCORP took the highest volumes—possible accumulation ahead of announcements or rebalancing.
• Most Traded (Retail Top 5):
  • MTNN, ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK, STERLINGNG
  • Retail chased telecom (MTNN) and banks, mirroring institutions but leaning more towards names with strong recent news or speculative momentum.
• Hidden Patterns:
  • Stocks most traded by both retail & institutions (e.g., ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK) are also those with the best liquidity and, often, the focus of rotational flows—investors seeking safety in size.
  • Volume in ACCESSCORP is many times its 90-day average, suggesting active positioning and possibly signaling approaching news (corporate actions or results?).

Trading & Investment Suggestions

• For Short-Term Traders: Caution is warranted in chasing overstretched momentum names (NCR, Ikeja Hotel, Stanbic IBTC ETF 30)—look for profit-taking signals and consider partial exits or trailing stops. Oversold names (Meyer PLC) may offer quick "bounce” trades.
• For Medium-Long Term Investors: Maintain exposure to sectors with proven YTD strength (banking, consumer, value) but watch for growing inflows into bonds and defensive sectors. Accumulate on pullbacks, especially in high dividend-yielding stocks experiencing temporary weakness.
• Overlaps between high liquidity and institutional volume (e.g., ACCESSCORP) offer relative safety for larger capital—ideal for more conservative strategies.
• Be alert for sector rotation—top YTD performers may slow, while laggard sectors (industrial, oil/gas) could see selective rebounds if macro trends shift.

Summary Tables: Top Gainers & Losers (YTD & WTD)

Final Thoughts

• Despite a muted headline index, pockets of extreme momentum (positive and negative) persist. Watch for a shift—outperformance often invites gravity.
• Banking and value indexes continue to attract big-money flows and remain a backbone for both retail and institutional portfolios.
• Take advantage of short-term mean revert trade setups in oversold stocks (e.g., Meyer PLC), and scale out or guard profits in highly overbought names.
• The evolving interplay between institutional and retail traders, and the sectors they favor, can provide early clues to next week’s emerging leadership.
• With most new lows absent, and new highs trickling in, the market looks more like it's consolidating gains than topping out. That spells more opportunities ahead—but with prudent risk management.