NGX Daily Market Summary – Monday, September 29, 2025

Welcome to your first trading day recap for the final week of September! The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) gained +0.17% today, closing at 142,133.03, with the year-to-date return at an impressive +37.99%. Despite a flat open, positive momentum in select sectors helped cap gains, though market breadth remained soft. Turnover shrank notably, while advances failed to outpace decliners. Noteworthy, volumes surged for a handful of stocks — a sign of shifting interest among both institutional and retail players.

Previous Week’s Recap

Last week was characterized by profit-taking and sector rotation, but persistent strength in momentum stocks helped the ASI post a modest overall gain. Defensive sectors and high-yield names began attracting cautious institutional buying, even as growth names saw choppier action. Signs of divergence between the broader market and outperforming pockets is becoming more pronounced — a theme to watch as the quarter draws to a close.

Key Takeaways & Market Breadth

• Market Breadth: Breath remained weak at 0.69x, with 27 advancers but 39 decliners. Volume rose for 76 stocks, declined for 64.
• Turnover: Market turnover slumped -30.06% from the previous session, to 11.61B Naira — a pronounced sign of caution or consolidation as Q3 winds down.
• Unusual Volume: Stand-out surges in FIRSTHOLDCO (+168% vol), UPL (+169% vol), FIDSON (+116% vol), and GEREGU (+239% vol) suggest institutional repositioning or speculative flows.

Top Gainers & Losers

• THOMASWY takes the top spot with a 10% surge, riding strong short-term momentum and a leading YTD gain.
• MANSARD, UPL, LEARNAFRCA all drop over -9.7%, each also featuring in YTD loser tables, suggesting sustained bearish pressure.
• CAVERTON and ETERNA show strong gains with bullish momentum signals (close above 15DMA).

Year-To-Date (YTD) Top Gainers & Losers (as of Today)

• Interestingly, MANSARD, UPL, LEARNAFRCA, CORNERST are top 5 YTD gainers yet were among today's biggest losers, indicating risk of near-term reversal or excessive overbought conditions unwinding.

Momentum & Technical Patterns

• Bullish Momentum: Stocks closing above their 15DMA: ETERNA (up 8.97%, RSI 41.17), CAVERTON (up 8.49%, RSI 47.50), OMATEK (up 6.56%, RSI 48.21), FIDSON (up 3.50%, RSI 55.48) — all show continued buying interest with moderate-to-positive RSI and no overbought signals, pointing to a healthy uptrend.
• Bearish Momentum: Notable breakdowns below 15DMA: JBERGER (-9.52%), UPL (-10.93%), CUSTODIAN (-2.33%). These stocks are experiencing selling pressure with RSI readings in the 51–55 zone — not oversold, so expect further downside risk if sellers persist.

Unusual Volume Focus

• FIRSTHOLDCO had volume over 2.5x its 90-day average with no price movement, suggesting large-scale accumulation/distribution.
• UPL (also top loser and YTD gainer) was heavily traded on its price fall — may point to forced liquidation or stop-loss cascade.
• FIDSON’s uptick in both price and volume adds conviction to its bullish momentum crossover.
• EUNISELL’s unusual volume and strong recent YTD outperformance warrant a watch for potential follow-through.

Contrarian Signals

• Stocks such as CUSTODIAN (YTD gainer, now top loser with RSI 53.3 and a bullish MACD) could mean a short-lived pullback with an eventual resumption of the uptrend.
• MANSARD is both a YTD gainer and a top daily loser, with mid-level RSI (52) and a positive MACD, suggesting a pause rather than a trend reversal.
• UPL, LEARNAFRCA, and CORNERST fit a similar pattern — their sharp daily drops on sustained bullish YTD momentum may attract contrarian traders looking for pullback entries.

Sector Heatmap (relative performance & technical trends)

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunity Spotting)

• High-dividend, low-beta stocks showing up in momentum tables (CAVERTON, FIDSON) are prime candidates for defensive yield seekers, especially amid weak market breadth.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK continues attracting heavy institutional flow, commanding a whopping 10.2% of institutional trade value with a trade count share of 0.72%. Institutional volume was over 18.3M units (over 4x retail participation). Watch for breakout or further accumulation.
• FIRSTHOLDCO and ARADEL also saw heavy institutional action. FIRSTHOLDCO's flat price despite massive volume hints at subtle "hand-off" between institutions.

Market Activity/Trades Analysis

• Institutional Investors: Accounted for 39.9% of trades but dominated 60.1% of total volume and a striking 84.1% of value. This points to institutions driving the market's big moves as Q3 window-dressing nears.
• Retail Investors: Higher count but lower value/volume — continuing a recent trend of retail "churn” while institutional players dictate the larger flows.
• Top Institutional Focus: ZENITHBANK, ARADEL, MTNN, FIRSTHOLDCO, ELLAHLAKES. Financials and energy remain ground zero for institutional volume, hinting at risk-on rotation and possible Q4 positioning.
• Top Retail Focus: STERLINGNG, MTNN, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, FIDELITYBK. Notice the cross-over in MTNN and ZENITHBANK, but value traded is far more significant on the institutional side.
• Patterns/Correlations: Stocks heavily bought by institutions (e.g., ZENITHBANK, FIRSTHOLDCO) also saw large volumes and price stability, while retail-heavy names (STERLINGNG) saw choppier price action.

Currency Market

• Naira weakened modestly by -0.04% to 1,491/$, in line with overall risk-off tone and possible end-of-quarter repatriations.

Trader Suggestions

• Consider accumulating CAVERTON or FIDSON for both yield and momentum, especially if market breadth rebounds.
• Contrarians could monitor sharp movers like UPL, MANSARD, LEARNAFRCA for short-term mean reversion.
• Institutions’ clustering in ZENITHBANK, FIRSTHOLDCO, ARADEL warrants a close watch. A breakout may follow if accumulation persists.
• Stay cautious in insurance; profit-taking and technical breakdowns suggest more pain near-term unless oversold conditions emerge.
• Monitor volumes closely: Unusual volume without price movement (FIRSTHOLDCO, GEREGU) can precede abrupt shifts. Unusual volume with sharp moves (FIDSON, UPL) suggests trend amplification.

Summary Chart: Retail vs Institutional Focus – Top 5 Traded Symbols

• Key insight: Institutional and retail overlap in MTNN and ZENITHBANK highlights broad interest, but retail activity is more fragmented across smaller-cap financials.

Key: Positive | Negative

While the index continues its upward grind with institutionals in the driver’s seat, weak breadth, falling turnover, and sharp profit-taking in prior big winners add a layer of caution. But for astute investors, rotating into overlooked dividend yielders showing fresh bullish momentum (like CAVERTON, FIDSON) might offer solid risk-adjusted opportunities. Stay alert for reversals in recent high-flyers and watch volume spikes for early trend shifts!