NGX Daily Market Summary – Tuesday, September 30, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) ended the day modestly higher, closing at 142,377.56, up 0.23%, building the year-to-date return to a robust 38.31%. The session saw a pronounced surge in both trading volume (1.21B shares; previous day: 383.91M) and market turnover (₦28.26B; previous: ₦11.61B, up 143.48%), signposting a flush of institutional activity. Despite the positive close, market breadth was negative (0.89x), with 31 advancers versus 35 decliners, reflecting underlying rotation and selective bullishness. Most of today’s trading was institutional-driven, with several stocks recording unusual volumes, and notable price action in the likes of UPDC (top gainer) and ENAMELWA (top loser). Below, we unpack sector moves, top gainers/losers, technical momentum, and hidden signals for traders and investors.

Market Breadth & Significant Trends

• Negative Breadth, Positive Index: The ASI advanced 0.23% despite more decliners (35) than advancers (31), indicating rallies concentrated in heavyweight or high-liquidity stocks.
• Volume & Turnover Spike: Institutional orders dominated, accounting for 93.85% of trade value and 88.70% of volume, suggesting portfolio reallocations or block trades underpinning the rise.
• 64 stocks saw volume gains versus 76 with lower volume, pointing to selective accumulation/distribution.
• Unusual Volume Surprises: FIDELITYBK dramatically outperformed (volume 2328% over 90-day average), signaling either institutional entry or a possible re-rating underway.

Top 5 Gainers & Losers – 1 Day

Key Insights & Patterns

• Turnover Surge Implications: The massive jump in turnover (+143.48%) is institution-driven. Institutions snapped up names like FIDELITYBK, ZENITHBANK, and ARADEL, which also showed strong volume metrics and bullish technical crosses. This can foreshadow sustained accumulation and further price upside in these names, attractive for momentum and swing traders.
• Advancers vs Decliners: Despite green index print, negative breadth implies gains are narrowly distributed; traders should avoid generalized bullishness and focus on leaders.
• Stocks with Unusual Volumes:
  • FIDELITYBK: Volume up over 2,328% vs 90D avg, price up 5%. Both MACD and Moving Average crosses show strong bullish momentum with institutional buying fingerprints.
  • NCR: Over 121,740% of 90D average, up 5.26% – likely a technical or fundamental event, warrants further investigation.
  • EUNISELL: Up 137.91% on volume, with price up 9.72%, present in YTD gainers (104.98% YTD).
• Year-to-Date (YTD) Top Gainers:

  Stock	Price	%ChgYTD	RSI	MACD	DivY	PE
  THOMASWY	3.63	108.95%	61.65	0.0598	1.05	0
  EUNISELL	36.00	104.98%	70.31	2.80	0.31	0
  LIVINGTRUST	5.66	39.04%	60.85	0.129	1.67	35.77
  TIP	13.30	484%	55.71	0.25	0	n/a
  ETERNA	30.65	38.68%	47.27	-1.57	0.68	29.5

• Year-to-Date Top Losers:

  Stock	Price	%ChgYTD	RSI	MACD	DivY	PE
  CUSTODIAN	43.00	138.60%	51.83	2.27	1.20	3.80
  UNIONDICON	9.00	12.50%	45.45	-0.26	6.25	0
  MANSARD	14.40	59.65%	45.88	0.22	4.59	31.16
  UPL	5.40	40.26%	45.55	0.05	0.59	7.12
  CHAMPION	14.80	260.89%	47.37	-0.09	0.41	412.8

• Bullish Momentum Stocks (price above 15DMA): TRANSCORP, FIDELITYBK, and VITAFOAM, among others, have all triggered bullish crossovers—helpful for short-term traders.
• Bearish Momentum Stocks (price < 15DMA): WAPCO, ETI, and ETRANZACT signal caution – price breakdown below support, possibly further sell-offs.
• Stocks with RSI above 70: EUNISELL (70.3) flags overbought – riding high on momentum but may be due for consolidation soon.
• Overlap Alert: EUNISELL and ETERNA feature both as current gainers and in YTD top performers – signals momentum names still attracting strong interest. FIDELITYBK also notable for institutional rotation across technical and fundamental screens.
• Stocks with High Dividend Yield & Active: VITAFOAM yields 7.03%, presents bullish technicals and unusual volume—a blend of income and near-term price appreciation potential.

Contrarian Signals (Conflicting Indicators)

• CHAMPION: Despite a lackluster -9.8% YTD and a drop today, MACD is flirting with bullish values (slightly negative), and RSI is neutral (47.4), indicating possible basing rather than further collapse. Opportunity for nimble reversal traders.
• STANBICETF30: Large negative move but RSI is a strong 59 and MACD is positive (8.63)—bullish divergence amid severe decline.
• FIDELITYBK: RSI at 49.2 (neutral, but after a big run), MACD slightly negative, but enormous volume and bullish crossover above 15DMA—possible short-term overbought but longer-term upside.

Sector Heatmaps (Performance & Technical Trends)

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunities)

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional trades account for 20.17% of total market value by institutions—a clear signal of accumulation. Blocks like these often precede sustained moves in blue chips.
• FIDELITYBK: ~80% institutional volume (790M shares), with price above 15DMA and bullish momentum, is a clear sign of rotational buying.
• ARADEL: Despite modest trade count, high Institutional value—signals big money presence; watch for follow-through volume.

High Dividend Names with Bullish/Bearish Flags

• VITAFOAM: High dividend, bullish technicals, above 15DMA, attractive for defensive investors and swing traders.
• FIDELITYBK: High yield (5.48%), strong momentum, but may warrant caution for short-termers after today's explosive move.
• CONHALLPLC: Decent yield (2.08%), but high PE (69.63x)—momentum could trump value short-term.
• Banks: UBA and ZENITHBANK: Under accumulation, though ZENITHBANK had slight price dip today.

Trader Suggestions (Opportunities & Cautions)

• Ride the Flow: FIDELITYBK and ARADEL: Both under major institutional accumulation, solid technicals – momentum swing positions can be established, but trail stops after outsized up-moves.
• PSI for Defensive Portfolios: VITAFOAM – High yield, strong momentum, moderate beta makes it appealing as a defensive core holding.
• Cautious on Overextended: EUNISELL (RSI 70.3, >100% YTD): Due for mean-reversion or volatility spike shortly.
• Rotation Plays: Focus on sectors with lagging breadth but strong institutional prints (Banking, Oil & Gas), but avoid those breaking under 15DMA or where technicals are softening (ETI, WAPCO).
• Bullish Breakouts: TRANSCORP and CONHALLPLC, both above 15DMA, moderate betas—potential for momentum chases.
• Short-Term Contrarians: Consider CHAMPION or STANBICETF30 for possible snapback after recent sharp drops, especially if volume spikes materialize.

Top 5 YTD Gainers & Losers (Tuesday Special)

Market Activity & Trade Summary Analysis

• Retail vs. Institutional:
  • Institutional: 1,900 trades (36.8% of total count), but 88.7% of volume and 93.9% of gross value—a classic sign of large-block, high-conviction trades.
  • Retail: 26,142 trades (63.2% of trades) but only 11.3% of volume. Suggests retail is firmly in smaller tickets—great liquidity for institutions looking to accumulate.
• Top Institutional Traded Stocks:
  1. FIDELITYBK – 81 Inst. trades, 790.6M volume, ₦15.88B value (institutional accumulation signal!)
  2. ZENITHBANK – 400 Inst. trades, 47.8M volume, ₦3.3B value
  3. ARADEL – 130 Inst. trades, 1.4M volume, ₦835.7M value
  4. UBA – 110 Inst. trades, 15M volume, ₦652.7M value
  5. ACCESSCORP – 74 Inst. trades, 7.3M volume, ₦186.9M value
• Top Retail Traded Stocks:
  1. STERLINGNG – 2,193 trades, 14.1M volume, ₦110.3M value
  2. MTNN – 1,287 trades, 155K volume, ₦65.6M value
  3. ZENITHBANK – 1,267 trades, 1.6M volume, ₦110.5M value
  4. UBA – 1,127 trades, 2.3M volume, ₦101.7M value
  5. GTCO – 1,029 trades, 687K volume, ₦64.4M value
• Institutions favor FIDELITYBK and ZENITHBANK (banks with good liquidity and earnings) while retail continues to churn STERLINGNG, UBA, and MTNN (popular but less pronounced in institutional moves).
• Correlation/Patterns: The convergence of unusual institutional activity in FIDELITYBK with its technical breakouts and price quality suggests institutional "smart money” is betting on earnings/valuation catalysts. Watch ARADEL, ZENITHBANK, FIDELITYBK for sustained moves.
• For retail investors: Banks remain liquid and actively traded, offering tactical short-term opportunities—trend with strong institutions or position opposite (contrarian, for mean-reversion plays).

Hidden Insights & Takeaways

• Institutions are dictating trend; follow their flow for momentum.
• Gainers are concentrated in few stocks and sectors; breadth is weak—time for selectivity, not index-wide bullishness.
• FIDELITYBK, VITAFOAM, and ARADEL are today’s "three to watch” – showing technical, fundamental, and flow strength.
• Yield plus technical strength is rare—ride VITAFOAM if you seek both.
• Be wary of hyped names with overextended RSI or massive short-term moves; consider trailing stops.
• Bearish momentum (WAPCO, ETI): Avoid new longs.

Opportunities & Cautions (Summary Tips)

• Stay with strength—FIDELITYBK and ARADEL for momentum. Rotate to VITAFOAM for defense/income plus upside.
• Institutions are clearly interested in banks; retail should either ride coattails or go contrarian with strict risk.
• Banks and select oil names are seeing both fundamental and flow support.
• Apply caution on names with exhausted RSI (EUNISELL). Trailing stops, not new buys, on such overextended names.
• For short-term traders: CHAMPION, STANBICETF30 offer reversal trades on snapback potential, but high risk, high reward.