Nigeria Stock Market Weekly Summary (Week Ending July 18, 2025)

The Nigerian stock market delivered another robust week, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) advancing +3.86% to close at 131,585.64. This performance outpaced historical averages, accelerating the YTD ASI return to +27.53%. Sentiment remained bullish, not only with breadth slightly positive (advancers outpacing decliners 58 to 55; Breadth Ratio 1.05x), but also with several large-cap names and industrials notching notable gains. However, beneath the surface, market activity cooled off: deal count fell -37.21% and total traded volume dropped -19.24% week-over-week even as weekly value traded ticked +2.56% higher. This hints at concentrated institutional buying in select bellwethers driving the index higher.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Market breadth: Slightly positive at 1.05x (58 advancers, 55 decliners), signaling a healthy, broad-based rally despite some profit-taking in pockets.
• Advancers: 32.4% of stocks rose, 30.7% declined, with roughly 1 in 3 names unchanged—suggesting selective accumulation and rotation.
• Volume pattern: Trades were up for 135 companies, down for 137. Yet, turnover and trade deals both notably down—indicative of fewer, bigger-value trades (institutional activity in big names).
• 39 new highs vs 2 new lows: Momentum still dominant, with persistent demand for outperformers.

Top Gainers and Losers – Week to Date

Noteworthy insights from top gainers and losers:

• EUNISELL (+32.6%, RSI 99.88): Overbought alert—RSI at extreme levels, supported by positive MACD, yet caution is warranted for new buyers; short-term pullback possible.
• BUACEMENT (+24.6%, RSI 80.6): Fresh institutional interest or sector rotation? RSI and MACD show continued upside but with overbought conditions.
• ABCTRANS (+16.98%, RSI 91.68): Parabolic move, likely propelled by news/rumor or short squeeze; momentum high but unsustainable without new catalysts.
• NESTLE (+20%, RSI 85.81): Defensive, dividend-paying blue chip; rally could reflect safe-haven bid and institutional accumulation.
• ACADEMY (-24.32% WTD, +122% YTD): Despite the sharp drop, still a huge YTD winner. Possible profit-booking or reversal after a strong run—a classic momentum fatigue signal.

Momentum & Technical Pattern Analysis:

• Bullish momentum (RSI >70, MACD positive, 15DMA>50DMA):
  
  • EUNISELL, BUACEMENT, ABCTRANS, NESTLE, NASCON, UACN.
    All these display extreme RSI readings and strong bullish sentiment. Momentum names may run further if trading volumes expand but face risk of near-term reversals.
• Bearish early signals (No RSI <30 yet among the most-volatile stocks, but declining price% and waning MACD on several WTD losers—watch ACADEMY and DEAPCAP for oversold bounces if volumes surge again).
• Overlap: Notable that some WTD big gainers (e.g. NASCON, ABCTRANS) and losers (ACADEMY) are also among the YTD best performers—potential sector rotation/profit-taking.

YTD Top Gainers and Losers (Select)

Indexes Review – Weekly and YTD (% Change Color-Coded)

• Industrial sector (NGXINDUSTR): Outperformed dramatically with a +16.5% surge on the week. Most of this move is linked to outsized performances in stocks like BUACEMENT and DANGCEM, suggesting renewed institutional rotation into high-quality industrials.
• Premium, Lotus and Pension indexes all posted solid gains — underscores that blue chips and Islamic-compliant names continue to attract strong flows.
• Growth, SME, and Oil & Gas lagged (NGXASEM, NGXGROWTH, NGXOILGAS all negative). The poor performance in Oil & Gas (YTD -10.47%) is notable given global energy trends; sector/structural headwinds persist.
• Year-to-date, the broad outperformance lies in Premium, Lotus, and Pension Broad Indexes. Lotus Index (Sharia-compliant) is standout with +49.1% YTD.

Market Activity & Trades – Institutional vs Retail Patterns

• Institutions dominate: They accounted for 87.35% of volume and nearly 93% of value, even though they represented only 40% of trade count. Large deals in ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, and GTCO dominate activity.
• Retail activity is higher in trade count but minimal in volume/value. The same large bank names top both institutional and retail lists, reflecting unified interest in financial blue chips—but with retail playing in much smaller lots.
• Unusual volume: The enormous surge in ACCESSCORP's institutional volume (over 100 million shares) hints at a major block trade or accumulation.
• Insight for traders: Follow the institutional money; high-volume moves in the largest banks often signal repeat follow-through in coming sessions. Banks are likely to remain leadership group for near-term trading.

Summary & Suggestions for Traders/Investors

• Momentum remains dominant: Several stocks in "extreme” overbought RSI territory, coupled with positive MACD and favorable moving average crossovers. Stick with momentum, but manage position size and trail stops to lock in gains.
• Be selective: If entering extended winners (RSI >80), watch for reversal candles or volume spikes. Consider partial profit-booking.
• Watch banking and industrials: These are attracting most institutional flows. Traders should monitor ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, and newly powerful industrials like BUACEMENT/DANGCEM for continued leadership.
• Dividend/income seekers: Some high dividend yield stocks, like NASCON, are both YTD winners and remain in bullish technical alignment—potential for total return.
• Caution in Oil/Gas and Insurance sectors: Continued YTD and WTD underperformance; only for deep value or turnaround seekers.
• Declining turnover and trade counts signal a pause for breath; next week could deliver mean reversion or consolidation, especially if global/emerging market risk-off themes re-surface.

In conclusion, this week continued the story of selective accumulation and strong institutional conviction, with industrials and big banks at the forefront. While retail interest is scattered and small in size, watch the whales for trend confirmation. For aggressive traders, there is still profit in momentum, but the runway for parabolic stocks may be narrowing sharply.