📈 NGX Market Daily Summary – Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Strong bullish momentum returned to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) today, with the All Share Index (ASI) rebounding by 1.80% to close at 126,689.54. The Year-to-Date gain for the broad index now stands at an impressive 24.99%. Market breadth was balanced but leaning bullish (Adv/Dec = 1.02x), and turnover soared, as the value of trades doubled versus the previous session.

Volume and Turnover Surge: Today's traded volume hit 292.46 million shares (up from 273.57M), while market turnover exploded to ₦9.59 billion (+106.79% over prior day). Bids were led by UBA and Access Holdings, both registering massive block trades and further signaling institutional interest.

Naira also strengthened on the currency market, appreciating 0.17% against the USD to close at 1,527/$.

Key Trends & Market Breadth

• 📊 Advancers: 45 | Decliners: 44 — The advancers/decliners ratio was a slim 1.02x, hinting at broad participation but also underlying sector rotation.
• 🔼 Volume up: 64 stocks | 🔽 Volume down: 75 stocks — Despite the bullish close, overall volume spread shows many stocks with declining activity: focus is concentrated on a select few names.
• 💰 Turnover: Value traded spiked by over 106% — sign of renewed institutional buying or large block trades moving the market.

Top 5 Gainers & Losers

• EUNISELL (+10%, RSI: 99.2): Extreme overbought conditions suggest caution—profit-taking may occur soon.
• NSLTECH (+10%, RSI: 89.5): Bullish continuation, but RSI flags potential reversal risk in near future.
• All major gainers have RSI > 88: Widespread overextension—momentum trades should use protective stops.
• FTNCOCOA (-10%, RSI: 90.15): Exceptionally high RSI despite steep drop hints at a possible snapback after washout selling.
• CHAMPION: Appears in both top Losers and Year-to-Date Losers—watch for possible overselling or emerging contrarian interest.

Deeper Market Insights & Technical Trends

• Turnover Spike: The +106% jump in traded value is a bullish liquidity signal—often seen at the start of new up-legs or near inflection points.
• Volume/Momentum Concentration: UBA, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, NB, and UNIVINSURE show unusual volume spikes (all >100% of 90D average). These are magnets for tactical traders.
• Year-to-Date Trends:
  • NSLTECH (+101.7% YTD), TRIPPLEG (+92% YTD), OMATEK (+120% YTD), and ABCTRANS (+321% YTD) are also among today’s top gainers—bullish momentum confirmed by both daily and YTD moves.
  • Many laggards (e.g., CUTIX -47.43% YTD, CHAMPION -222.57%) have bearish momentum with RSI still elevated (>65), suggesting forced selling but possible short-term bounce opportunities as sellers exhaust.
  • CHAMPION and CILEASING: Persistent underperformance YTD and large daily losses, with high RSI—potential candidates for technical reversals.
• Bullish Momentum Table Standouts (stocks crossing above 15DMA):
  • AFRIPRUD (DivY: 1.27%, Beta: 0.64): Defensive, yield-focused, and now showing bullish technical action—good for cautious buyers.
  • DANGCEM (Beta: 1.94): Crossed above 15DMA, modestly up, suggesting a possible large-cap rotation into industrials.
• Bearish Momentum Table Standouts (crosses below 15DMA): CAVERTON, CUTIX, CHAMPION—each also on YTD loser lists, indicating classic "momentum crashes" and possible oversold setups if RSI drops below 30 (currently still above).

Contrarian Signals – Mixed Technical Messages

• CHAMPION BREWERIES (YTD -222.57%, RSI: 69.16): Despite steep losses and bearish momentum (price < 15DMA), the RSI is not oversold and remains elevated. MACD remains positive. Contrarians may eye this for a technical rebound.
• FTNCOCOA: Crashed today but still has RSI > 90: This type of washout can precede quick bounces. Watch for volume spikes reversing.
• NESTLE: Was today's gainer at +10% and yet RSI of 60.5—suggests it may not be dangerously overbought, possibly a second leg higher before profit-taking kicks in.

Sector Heatmaps & Activity Snapshots

• Banking Sector dominated flows, with UBA & Zenithbank commanding both institutional and retail trades.
• Insurance sector stocks (esp. UNIVINSURE, LASACO, SOVRENINS) showed either heavy selling or sideways action, with many breaching key supports.
• Consumer goods saw NESTLE rallying (rebounding), but CHAMPION fell further and now appears technically oversold.

Dividend-Beta Matrix – Defensive Opportunities

• Highest combo of yield and defensive beta: AFRIPRUD stands out—recent momentum plus above-market yield and low beta suggest it is well-poised for risk-averse investors.
• CUTIX: Ultra high yield, low beta, but technical breakdown; consider avoiding until bottom is confirmed by RSI/volume.

Institutional Clustering & Liquidity Alerts

• Institutional investors drove 41.2% of trade count but a massive 70.5% of all market volume and a commanding 91.6% of total value.
• ZENITHBANK: Institutional trades accounted for ~90% of its total value turnover. Keep an eye on block-trade-driven moves (liquidity can shift direction suddenly).
• UBA: Institutional participation dominated, with over 145 million shares changing hands (many times the 90D average)—suggesting accumulation by deep-pocketed buyers.

High Dividend Yield in Bull/Bear Tables: Insights

• AFRIPRUD: Appears in the bullish momentum table, offering both solid yield (1.27%) and technical upside—favored for those seeking total return with lower risk.
• LASACO, SOVRENINS and CUTIX: High yields but on the bearish momentum table—wait for technical stabilization. High yields can signal distress, so avoid catching the proverbial "falling knife."

Top 5 YTD Gainers & Losers (as of July 16, 2025)

• Note: "Losers” are positive here YTD due to reference period, but they’re trailing their index or have had major drawdowns recently (focus on "recent crashes”).
• The presence of big gainers like OMATEK, NSLTECH, and TRIPPLEG on both today's and YTD lists confirms strength in momentum.

Market Activity & Trades Analysis

• Institutional vs Retail: Major value and volume flows (70% of volume, 91.6% of cash) were institutional – especially concentrated in banking stocks (UBA, Zenithbank, Access). Retail activity higher in trade count, but focused on smaller volume/value per trade.
• Top Institutional Traded Symbols: UBA, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, NB.
  Top Retail Traded Symbols: ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, UBA, MTNN.
  • Strong overlap in Banks across investor types suggests sector rotation or liquidity hunting.
  • NB (Nigerian Breweries) showing up as an institutional favorite could signal bargain-buying or sector rebalancing.
  • Retail crowd prefers large liquid names but less so on volume—a classic sign of surfing trends set by "big money.”
• Pattern: Institutional clustering can often portend bigger price moves ahead, while overlap in retail/institutional favorites can lead to "crowded trades.” Watch for sudden reversals on elevated volumes.

Opportunities & Recommendations

• Momentum trades: NSLTECH, TRIPPLEG, OMATEK, and ABCTRANS—all strong uptrend stocks but highly overbought (RSI > 88). Tight stops required as volatility may surge.
• Defensive yield + upside: AFRIPRUD offers a rare blend of yield and rising price action for more conservative capital.
• Reversal Watch: CHAMPION, FTNCOCOA, and CILEASING—steep falls with high RSI suggest forced selling; bounce trades possible on a reversal signal.
• Caution: Avoid high-yield laggards like CUTIX and LASACO until a technical bottom or oversold confirmation.
• Sector rotation into banking and large-cap industrials (e.g., DANGCEM) is gaining favor—watch for both momentum and value opportunities here.