Nigeria Stock Market Weekly Summary: Week Ending September 12, 2025

The Nigerian equities market wrapped up the week on a strong note, as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) advanced by +0.83%, climbing to 140,545.69. This move extends the year-to-date gains to +36.21%, illustrating persistent positive sentiment despite recent bouts of volatility. Notably, market breadth remained robust at 2.40x, with advancers overwhelmingly outpacing decliners—a sign that confidence is widespread. Turnover jumped +22.65%, but underlying activity was nuanced with modest dips in volume (-1.03%), signaling some rotation beneath the surface as investors reposition for Q4. The Naira also posted a sharp appreciation, climbing 2.32% against the Dollar—a supportive development for market sentiment. Let’s break down the week’s action, key outperformers and laggards, sector trends, and technical undercurrents for sharper trading decisions.

Market Breadth & Trends

• Market Breadth: Breadth was very strong this week with 72 advancers versus 30 decliners, ratio at 2.40x. Approximately 40.22% of stocks rose, 16.76% declined, and 43.02% were unchanged—a highly bullish signal.
  • Advancing stocks breadth supports the week’s positive index move; sentiment is clearly in favor of the bulls.
  • Five new 52-week highs and zero new lows further reinforce the upside momentum.
• Turnover and Trades: Despite a -1.03% decline in aggregate traded volume, the total value traded rose sharply by 22.65%.
  • This divergence points to a shift into higher-value, possibly large-cap names—consistent with institutional activity noted in the market trade summaries.
    Number of deals surged by 10.56% week-on-week, indicating greater activity depth and possibly more speculative positioning.
• Currency Strength: The Naira appreciated markedly against the Dollar (+2.32%), potentially curbing inflation pass-through and supporting foreign investor confidence.

Top Gainers & Losers: Week-to-Date

Key Gainers:

• ETRANZACT: Soared +32.30% WTD, +130% YTD. Momentum remains robust (RSI: 59.7), strong MACD. Further continuation possible although RSI not yet overbought.
• CHELLARAM: Up +26.67% weekly, a staggering +259.46% YTD. Volatility is high; traders should use caution as momentum is already extended.
• REGALINS, CHAMS, WAPCO: All posted double-digit weekly gains and are sitting near bullish RSI levels.

• MERGROWTH ETF: Plunged -10.00% even as YTD gains are positive. RSI is neutral, but MACD sharply negative, suggesting further caution ahead.
• NEM, MAYBAKER, UNIONDICON: Sizable pullbacks after strong YTD runs—watch for support levels as profit-taking emerges.

Top 5 Year-To-Date (YTD) Gainers & Losers

Noteworthy:

• Overlap among biggest YTD and WTD gainers: CHELLARAM, ETRANZACT, REGALINS, WAPCO continue to build on already spectacular YTD runs—momentum remains robust but late entrants should tread carefully.
• Sell-offs among former leaders signal rotational profit-taking but not an overall trend reversal yet.

Indexes Performance & Sector Rotation

• Sector Outperformance:
  • NGX Growth Index dominated, rallying +10.25% WTD (+59.30% YTD)—beating all others by a wide margin this week.
  • Consumer Goods sector continues its impressive YTD run (+83.57% YTD) albeit with slower weekly momentum.
  • Banking and Value-driven subsectors (Bank Value, MERI Value) remain outperformers, supported by renewed investor appetite for strong balance sheets amid currency stabilization.
  • Oil/Gas has rebounded this week (+2.38% WTD) but remains the laggard for the year (-10.76% YTD)—possible value trap for contrarian investors.
  • Insurance Index slips -0.70% this week but still holds the second-best YTD sectoral return (+66.66%).

Technical Patterns: RSI, MACD & Moving Averages

• Bullish Momentum:
  • No stocks among the top gainers are at classic "overbought" RSI levels (>70), but ETRANZACT is approaching with a RSI 59.7 and strong positive MACD histogram. Its 15DMA above 50DMA (11.43 vs 10.12) confirms short-term momentum.
  • CHELLARAM also shows bullish momentum, with RSI at 56.60 and short-term moving averages in steady alignment for further upside potential—though caution on stretched YTD returns is warranted.
  • In general, the top WTD gainers still have room to run technically, but rapid rises make entries riskier—trailing stops recommended.
• Bearish Divergences:
  • MERGROWTH ETF is notable for a plunging MACD (-82.34) and deeply negative histogram; while RSI is not oversold, momentum is clearly to the downside—avoid or short-term trade only with tight risk controls.
  • Other top losers (NEM, UNIONDICON, NSLTECH) have RSIs in the mid-40s to low-50s—no severe oversold signals, but the emerging profit-taking trend could persist if index momentum slows.

Market Activity & Trade Flow Insights

• Institutionals accounted for a huge chunk of market value (90.48%) on only 36.36% of trades, confirming heavy institutional positioning in large caps—banking and energy majors in particular (see next).
• Retail investors dominated by trade count but are dwarfed by value, pointing to smaller-lot speculative trading, especially in lower-priced names.

Top 5 Most Traded Stocks by Institutional Investors

Top 5 Most Traded by Retail Investors

• Overlap Insight: ZENITHBANK and ACCESSCORP attract both institutional and retail activity, highlighting these as liquidity hubs and possible short-term trading opportunities.
• Institutional Faves: ARADEL dominates value/volume for institutions, signaling 'smart money' allocation to oil/gas (likely on sector mean-reversion bets after long underperformance).
• Retail engagement focused on prominent banks and telecoms—indicative of retail's preference for blue chips and quick-trading opportunities.

Actionable Insights & Strategies for Traders

• Opportunities:
  • CHELLARAM, ETRANZACT, REGALINS: Strong technical momentum, robust institutional and retail liquidity—possible short-term momentum plays, though extended on a YTD basis (raise trailing stops).
  • ARADEL: With a surge in institutional buying and sector-wide Oil/Gas mean reversion, watch for further upside if energy sector bid persists.
  • WAPCO: Momentum breakout, positive MACD, high liquidity for swing trading.
• Cautions:
  • MERGROWTH ETF: MACD and price action imply further downside possible; steer clear unless as a tactical short.
  • Volume/Turnover Divergence: Institutional buying is concentrated. Retail traders should avoid illiquid, low-momentum plays.
  • Insurance sector: Despite massive YTD gains, outflow this week suggests potential profit-taking or exhaustion.
• Technical: Given that leading stocks are not decisively overbought, there is room for cautious upside. However, late-stage momentum can quickly reverse. Macro: Naira stability is market-supportive, especially for banks and consumer stocks.

Special Note: Dividend Yield & Momentum Overlap

• REGALINS features a relatively high dividend yield (6.52%) among top WTD/YTD gainers—signaling a rare blend of high current income and growth, attractive for total return investors.
• Monitor stocks offering a mix of dividend income and technical momentum; this can drive defensiveness in uncertain macro regimes.

Summary Table - WTD & YTD Gainers / Losers

Concluding Thoughts

• Momentum remains bias-positive with leadership coming from growth and value names, banking, and rotational picks in Oil & Gas. The sharp drop-off in a handful of prior YTD winners hints at early signs of sector rotation—opportunistic traders can exploit short-term reversals if breadth remains healthy.
• Institutional buying is dictating the major trends, so look to highly traded value leaders for best risk/reward in the current environment.
• Dividend growth stocks with technical momentum could shine as sector leadership in consumer goods, banking, and some insurance stocks persists.

Tip for Traders: Don’t chase parabolic movers at highs—wait for pullbacks or look for rotational opportunities in sectors showing renewed leadership (notably Oil/Gas and Banks). Align trades with institutional liquidity for highest conviction positions.