NGX Weekly Market Summary & Insight
Week ending Friday, September 26, 2025

The Nigerian stock market posted a steady uptick this week, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) rising by 0.45% to close at 142,133.00, notching its best weekly gain in over a month. Year-to-date, the index stands tall at 37.75%, underscoring continued investor confidence despite pockets of volatility. This strength was supported by a 22.46% jump in market turnover and a mild 2.83% increase in trading volume—even as total trade deals dipped 2.91%. Yet, beneath this headline resilience, sector rotation and breadthy divergence tell a more layered story: market breadth weakened with only 36 advancers versus 55 decliners and a muted breadth ratio of 0.65x. Notably, the NGX Growth Index soared an eye-watering 16.65% week-on-week and nearly 87.24% year-to-date, fueled by outsized moves in select small-cap growth names, highlighting ongoing risk appetite in the market's more speculative corners.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Advancers vs Decliners: Only 20.11% of listed stocks advanced while 30.73% declined—signaling narrowing leadership and rotation away from many names. Almost half (49.16%) of stocks were unchanged.
• New Highs & Lows: Despite tepid breadth, 6 stocks made new highs, and just 1 hit a new low, suggesting focused buying into select names.
• Volume Trends: Volume up for 139, down for 140 companies—pointing to indecisive participation.
• Market Turnover: Turnover climbed 22.46% W/W, but decreasing trades count (-2.91%) hints at larger, block trades rather than broad-based retail engagement.

Top 5 Week-to-Date (WTD) Gainers & Losers

• Gainer Observations:
  • THOMASWY and MECURE posted outsized moves (29% and 21% WTD), displaying speculative strength. Mecure flashes high momentum (RSI 66.4) but not technically overbought yet.
  • CHELLARAM and TIP are up considerably YTD. Chelarams is also at a very high RSI (68.8)—watch for short-term overbought risk.
  • STANBICETF30 and STANBIC signal ongoing interest in broad-based equity exposure and strong bank-related names.
• Loser Observations:
  • WEMABANK and FIDELITYBK have seen heavy profit taking (down 12.4% and 10.7% WTD respectively)—though both remain strong YTD gainers. Their RSIs are not yet oversold, suggesting further downside room.
  • Notably, DEAPCAP features high dividend yield (13.8%) but still posted a sharp loss, often signaling `yield traps` or structural challenge.
  • No losers in deep oversold RSI territory (RSI <30); most hover around neutral, implying declines are more about rotation than outright panic.

Year-To-Date (YTD) Gainers & Losers – Top 5

• Momentum Watch: TIP (+428.8% YTD), CHELLARAM (+339%), and MCNICHOLS (+126%)—leading YTD performers, but all with low to moderate dividend yields. Price momentum driven more by capital gains, not yield.
• Overlap Signal: MECURE, OMATEK, and CHELLARAM appear in both WTD and YTD tables, indicating continued buying momentum and potential short-term overheated conditions. Watch for mean reversion risk.
• Losers Table Insight: Although all "losers" are positive YTD, these have underperformed relative to the surging leaders. Notably, UNIONDICON and CUTIX offer high dividend yields but still lag—potential "value traps.”

Momentum & Technical Analysis Highlights

• Bullish Momentum (RSI >70, MACD, MA cross):
  • - CHELLARAM: RSI at 68.8 (approaching overbought), MACD positive; 15DMA (13.92) above 50DMA (11.42). Sparkline: ↗
  • - TIP: RSI at 50.3 but strong price action; positive MACD and 15DMA (12.20) above 50DMA (12.81) — sparkline: ↗
  • - MECURE & EUNISELL: Both exhibit elevated RSIs near 66+, 15DMA above 50DMA, sustaining bullish momentum.
  • No stocks in the top 10 gainers officially above RSI 70, but several are in the high 60s—bullish but overheated.
• Bearish Momentum (RSI <30, Negative MACD, 15DMA<50DMA):
  • - ETERNA: RSI at 41.2 (not deep oversold, but clear negative MACD and declining price; 15DMA at 30.59 below 50DMA at 36.36). Sparkline: ↘
  • - WEMA BANK: Falling but not yet technically oversold (RSI 44.6), MACD negative.
  • - DEAPCAP: Dividend yield extremely high (13.8%) but consistent downtrend; negative MACD, suggesting structural deterioration.
• Unusual Volumes:
  • - MTNN: For institutional trades, volume at ~4.7 million shares (115% above 90D avg) on Friday, suggesting accumulation or portfolio rebalancing.
  • - ZENITHBANK: Institutional volume up 44.7% W/W, strong interest from big players.

Indexes Comparison Table

• Outperformance: NGX Growth Index trounced all peers, up 16.65% WTD and 87.24% YTD—reflects strong speculative appetite and investor focus in high beta, smaller-cap stocks.
• Consumer Goods: The NGX Consumer Goods Index boomed 95.86% YTD; a top performer among sectors, most likely aided by positive earnings momentum and stable consumer spending.
• Oil & Gas: Oil/Gas Index continued to lag, down 1.13% WTD and in negative territory YTD—reflecting sector headwinds, possibly due to regulatory issues or macro uncertainty.
• Banks: The NGX Banking index is steady (+1.45% WTD, +38.77% YTD) but isn't outpacing the overall market, though institutional flows keep supporting large caps within this sector.
• Hidden Sector Insight: Insurance, despite a weekly dip, is still up a robust 57.44% YTD; investors are rotating to growth and value over defensive plays.

Dividends & Yield Observations

• High Dividend Yields: WEMABANK, FIDELITYBK, CUTIX, DEAPCAP, and CHELLARAM offer yields from 1.9% up to nearly 14%. However, several of these (DEAPCAP, CUTIX) are in the WTD or YTD Losers table, signaling the risk of "yield traps” where investors may be lured by unsustainable payouts amidst price weakness.
• Momentum/Dividends Disconnect: Top momentum stocks generally have lower yields, emphasizing growth over income orientation in 2025’s market leaders.

Market Activity & Trade Summaries

• Institutional vs Retail: Institutions dominate value and volume (almost 72% of volume, 91% of value) but just 38% of trade count — reflecting fewer but much larger trades. Retail is highly active but in small blocks.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional): ZENITHBANK, UBA, MTNN, ARADEL, GTCO. All are large caps; significant bank and telecom exposure.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Retail): MTNN, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, UBA. Indicates strong retail following in large, liquid names—overlap with institutions is high, especially in the banks.
• Pattern Insight: Both cohorts heavily trade banks and MTNN—these are both liquidity favorites and "safe havens” for local portfolios, while institutions also show willingness to take concentrated positions.
• Volume Surges: MTNN institutional trades at more than double its 90-day average volume suggest a significant positioning event—momentum traders should monitor for follow-through moves.

Actionable Opportunities & Cautions

• Opportunities:
  • Momentum investors may continue to ride strength in top gainers like CHELLARAM, MECURE, TIP, and resurgent growth sector ETFs. But caution warranted as some RSIs near overbought.
  • Institutional favorites (ZENITHBANK, GTCO, MTNN, UBA) offer liquidity and potential for steady gains; especially attractive if institutions are rotating further into market leaders ahead of earnings.
• Caution Signals:
  • Market breadth is thinning—an early warning of possible market fatigue. Traders should set tighter stop losses on high-flying names.
  • Yield chasers beware: several high dividend-paying stocks are underperforming (see DEAPCAP, CUTIX). Always assess payout sustainability.
  • Rotation from defensive/insurance/oil-gas sectors to growth and consumer names could stall if risk appetite wanes.

Summary Table

Investor Takeaways

• The market remains resilient but is narrowing—leaders are running, laggards are falling further behind.
• Momentum and technicals favor the top WTD/YTD gainers, but watch for signs of exhaustion (carefully eye RSI and volume spikes).
• Institutions dominate the market's real muscle—trade with the whales, not against them.
• The "yield vs. capital gain” debate is ever relevant: many laggards have high dividend yields, but true momentum lies in low yield, high beta stocks.
• Watch for any sector mean reversion, especially if macro shocks or earnings disappointments appear.
• Smart traders should keep a watchlist of overlapping top gainers across WTD and YTD lists for persistent outperformance, but remain vigilant with exit triggers.

Currency note: Naira appreciated 0.39% W/W to 1,490/$1—supportive for portfolio flows.