NGX Daily Market Summary – Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Nigerian equities closed slightly lower today, with the NGX All Share Index declining by -0.15% to settle at 140,929.60. Despite a robust Year-To-Date (YTD) gain of +36.38%, market sentiment cooled, as both turnover (-40.92%) and volume (-49.75% vs. previous day) fell sharply. Breadth remained soft (0.84x), with more decliners (31) than advancers (26). DANGOTE SUGAR led today's rally among a handful of strong performers, but risk-off attitudes dominated, especially in mid-cap ETFs and insurance tickers. Currency markets were mildly supportive, with the naira appreciating 0.23% against the dollar. Below, we dissect today’s market action, sector breakdowns, and offer subtle insights beneath the surface.

Significant Market Trends

• Market Breadth: Only 26 stocks advanced vs. 31 declining, resulting in a breadth ratio of 0.84x. Decliners outpaced gainers, confirming broad-based profit-taking.
• Top Gainers:
  • DANGSUGAR (+10.00%): Rose on bullish technicals (MACD & 15DMA crossover); RSI at 47 signals healthy, non-overbought momentum.
  • MECURE (+9.95%): Surged as RSI climbed to 56.45, MACD slightly advancing – still in a sweet technical spot, also features in YTD and 5D top gainers.
  • CORNERST (+8.00%): Strong move supported by moderate momentum, 5D and YTD momentum on its side, but with low earnings base (EPS: 0.3515).
  • NSLTECH (+8.00%): Appearing in both daily and 5D/YTD gainers, it reflects robust speculative interest rather than fundamentals.
  • STANBIC (+3.93%): Technicals robust (MACD bullish, crossover above 15DMA/50DMA, RSI at 51.2).
• Top Losers:
  • LOTUSHAL15 (-9.99%, not in detailed table): ETF volatility continues as investors shift out of Sharia-compliant names post-rebalancing.
  • DEAPCAP (-9.42%): Bearish momentum, shares also notable in YTD loser list, RSI below 56.
  • LEGENDINT (-9.26%): Under continued pressure, also featured in top YTD losers and bearish momentum table, MACD worsening.
  • WAPIC (-8.75%): Insurance weak broadly; RSI neutral but MACD still negative.
  • RTBRISCOE & VETINDETF (-8.16%): Corporate-specific and ETF-driven pressure persists.

Momentum Breakdown & Technical Patterns

• Bullish Momentum, 15DMA Crossovers (select):
  • DANGSUGAR and STANBIC both crossed above their 15DMA, with supportive MACD action and strong institutional flows.
• Bearish Momentum, 15DMA Breakdowns:
  • CUTIX, NAHCO, AIICO, LEGENDINT, DEAPCAP, VETINDETF feature with negative price moves, sustained low RSI readings (none below 30 yet—no deep oversold signals), and MACD trending lower.
  • LEGENDINT and DEAPCAP: Both appear in top daily/YTD losers and on bearish momentum table—clear "avoid” signals unless a reversal presents.
• Unusual Volume Standouts:
  • ZENITHBANK (Institutional: 15.18M% volume vs average): Institutional trades dominated total volume (155% above 90D avg), with technical trends supportive (+1.33% today; MACD strong, RSI balanced at 51.89).
  • FIRSTHOLDCO, MTNN, CHELLARAM also had volumes >2x average—note MTNN fell -4.80%, implying distribution on market weakness.
• YTD Top Gainers:

  Symbol	Price	%Chg1Dy	%Chg5Dys	%ChgYTD	RSI	Div Yield
  CHELLARAM	16.00	1.56	11.30	339.19	68.06	1.99
  MECURE	21.60	9.95	9.95	84.82	56.45	0.00
  ROYALEX	2.24	0.00	9.80	103.64	53.46	7.81
  CUSTODIAN	48.30	0.00	9.40	182.46	60.10	1.20
  NSLTECH	0.75	8.00	8.00	17.39	45.08	15.87

• YTD Top Losers

  Symbol	Price	%Chg1Dy	%Chg5Dys	%ChgYTD	RSI	Div Yield
  SIAMLETF40	527.40	-4.25	-13.82	-36.87	48.60	0.00
  LEGENDINT	5.40	-9.26	-12.66	-20.97	49.74	0.00
  GUINEAINS	1.50	-4.00	-11.66	-38.20	50.50	1.96
  MCNICHOLS	3.33	0.00	-10.00	106.83	48.07	5.88
  Ikejahotel	20.70	0.00	-9.80	67.61	47.48	0.94

• YTD Overlap Notables:
  • MECURE & NSLTECH post strong momentum both in daily and YTD tables—signal for continued near-term bullish sentiment.
  • LEGENDINT appears as both daily and YTD loser with bearish 15DMA crossover, raising caution for bottom-fishers.

Contrarian Signals

• STANBIC: RSI is 51.21 (not overbought), but a strong price breakout above 15/50DMAs and a bullish MACD cross. Despite relatively subdued past performance, this mix often precedes breakout trends—opportunity for risk-tolerant swing traders.
• DANGSUGAR: Up +10% but with moderate RSI (47), suggests strength may still be early/mid-stage, but be alert for exhaustion if volume wanes.
• MCNICHOLS: Despite appearing on YTD losers, posted a neutral day—RSI near 48 suggests technical stability could foster a short-term bounce.
• GUINEAINS: Still on YTD loser table, but RSI is neutral, and no decisive bearish technical confluence—possible value, but only with strict risk control.

Sector Performance Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Plays

• High Yield + Bullish: NSLTECH and ROYALEX – High dividend, low-to-average Beta, and bullish momentum suggest "defensive growth" appeal.
• High Yield + Bearish: CUTIX and AIICO – Attractive yield but watch for further price weakness due to bearish momentum signals.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK was the epicenter of institutional activity, accounting for 20.17% of institutional trade value. Institutional dominance (over 90% of volume/value for the day, 71% of total market volume) suggests accumulation phase continues. Banks dominate both retail and institutional action.
• MTNN and FIRSTHOLDCO also experienced heavy institution-led turnover, but for MTNN, distribution (as price fell) may signal risk of further weakness if support does not emerge.

Market Activity Analysis

• Trading Dynamics: Institutional investors drove market action with 90.95% of total value and 71.19% of volume, despite just 35.19% of trade count. Retail impact shrank considerably to less than 30% of total volume, signaling a risk-averse retail base.
• Correlations:
  • ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, UBA, GTCO: Repeated as both institutional and retail trading favorites—these names anchor liquidity and set tone for market moves.
  • FirstHoldCo & CHELLARAM (Unusual Volume): Suggest renewed speculative or institutional interest.
• Actionable Insight:
  • Follow the big money: where volumes are outsized (like ZENITHBANK), technicals are strong (15DMA cross, RSI not yet overbought), and institutions dominate—short-term momentum or accumulation in play.
  • Avoid/hedge positions in persistent institutional distribution (e.g., MTNN today) given negative price/volume action.

Opportunities & Cautions for Traders

• Momentum Buys: Watch DANGSUGAR, STANBIC, ZENITHBANK for potential short-term entries. Seek confirmation of continued institutional inflow and healthy RSI levels (<70).
• High Yield, Low Beta Picks: ROYALEX and NSLTECH combine defensive yield with technical upside—suitable for conservative or income-focused portfolios.
• Mean Reversion Plays: Stocks like LEGENDINT, DEAPCAP (deep oversold if RSI falls below 40) can present bounce-back trades, but with strict stops and only if reversal volume emerges.
• Caution: Avoid structurally weak names such as LOTUSHAL15, WAPIC, RTBRISCOE until evidence of buyers and stable technicals reappear.
• Sector Rotation: With ETFs/Indices weak and Insurance under pressure, focus flows toward Banking and selected Food/Product leaders.

Hidden & Subtle Insights

• Volume/Price Divergence: MTNN's heavy sell-off on surging volume hints at institutional profit-taking or unwinding—possible leading indicator for banking/telecom sector pressure.
• Persistently Bullish Names: MECURE and CHELLARAM carry continued 5D/YTD momentum strength, signaling "crowded trade” conditions. Monitor for momentum exhaustion in high-flyers.
• Institutional "Clustering”: The clustering of both volume and value in a select basket of banks highlights the sector as a liquidity and confidence anchor in the current market structure.
• Broad Market Softness: Despite notable individual winners, turnover slumped across the board, and more issues saw volume declines than increases, hinting that the rally remains selective, not broad-based.

Retail vs. Institutional Activity Table

Insight: Heavily institutional-led market day—retail participation remains cautious, tending toward high-liquidity majors.

Summary Table – Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional)

Summary Table – Top 5 Most Traded (Retail)

Patterns: Both retail and institutional flows are clustered around the same banking and telecom majors, though institutional investors are using size to influence directional moves.

Key Takeaways For Investors & Traders

• Momentum and Yield Alignment: Favour stocks with both bullish momentum (15DMA cross up, positive MACD) and/or high yield and moderate Beta—STANBIC, ROYALEX, NSLTECH, ZENITHBANK.
• Risk-Off in Weak Sectors: Avoid/hedge in ETFs, Insurance, and illiquid small caps showing persistent downtrends and institutional exit.
• Outsized Flows Matter: Heavily traded banking stocks are where alpha is being created and institutional sentiment telegraphed.
• Monitor Contrarian Setups: Where technicals and price diverge (e.g., bullish MACD without high RSI or vice versa), pay close attention for breakout or breakdown confirmation.
• Volume Trends as Leading Indicator: Unusual volume on price gains (e.g., CHELLARAM) can signal institutional accumulation; on price losses (MTNN), it often signals distribution/sell programs.

Final Note: While select leaders continue to outperform, broad market softness and turnover decline suggest overall cautious sentiment. Keep a keen eye on technical/momentum alignments and institutional flows for navigating upcoming volatility.