Weekly Nigeria Stock Market Summary (Week Ending Friday, October 24, 2025)

Another stellar week wraps up for the Nigerian equities market, with the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) surging 3.80% to a record close of 155,645.03. Market sentiment remained bullish, driven by key sectors breaking out, blue-chip resilience, and optimism spurred by large institutional flows. The NGX’s YTD performance is now at a remarkable 50.85%. Notably, turnover and trade deals soared week-on-week—institutional investors were the dominant market participants by value. However, market breadth slightly tilted to the bearish side, with more decliners (56) than gainers (47), and some pockets of volatility signaling sector rotation and profit-taking in select names.

Market Breadth & Participation (Breadth ratio: 0.84x, 47 advancers, 56 decliners)

• Market breadth was slightly negative (0.84x), indicative of decliners outweighing advancers—but strong sector averages masked weaknesses in individual names.
• While a healthy 26.4% of listed stocks advanced, 31.46% declined and a sizeable 42.13% were unchanged, reflecting selective momentum and latent caution.
• Volume traded increased for 142 stocks but fell for 143, with 17 new 52-week highs but only 1 new low—clear evidence of momentum-focused trading and fresh breakouts.

Top Gainers & Losers – Key Highlights

• ASO Savings (ASOSAVINGS) led gainers with a +32.00% WTD return and a red-hot RSI (78.53).
• ARADEL Holdings (ARADEL) rocketed +23.40% WTD, riding bullish momentum (RSI 76.44) and making another appearance in high-volume trades—favored by both retail and institutional investors.
• PZ Cussons (PZ) up 14.19% WTD, sporting a robust YTD of 83.74% and strong technicals.
• On the flip side, RT Briscoe (RTBRISCOE) slumped -9.84% (RSI under 50), with John Holt (JOHNHOLT) and Multiverse both dropping ~-9.7% WTD and flashing bearish MACD signals.
• Stanbic IBTC (STANBIC) lost -9.15% WTD despite a strong YTD—hinting at sectoral rotation or localized profit-taking.

Trends & Insights: Key Takeaways for Investors

• Turnover jump: With value traded up 42.06% and volume by 41.13%, the week signals high conviction buying on market upswings—suggesting rotation into equities or rebalancing bets by institutions.
• Advancer/Decliner trend: The outperformance of headline indexes versus weaker breadth suggests rally strength remains concentrated in large-caps and select momentum favorites.
• Unusual volume: ARADEL and DANGCEM have strong presence in both high volume and price performance, with both attracting heavy institutional and retail trades—implying robust conviction across investor classes.
• YTD Trends:
  • Some WTD top gainers (e.g., ARADEL, PZ, DANGCEM) are also among YTD gainers, showing persistent momentum and the strength of prevailing narratives/flows.
  • WTD losers like STANBIC remain strong YTD performers—suggesting temporary pullbacks rather than trend reversals.
• Bullish momentum (RSI > 70, positive MACD, and 15DMA > 50DMA):
  • ASOSAVINGS (RSI 78.5), ARADEL (RSI 76.4) & NATIONAL SALT (NASCON, RSI 73.5)—all flagging potential short-term overbought, but the technical picture is solid with bullish MACD and prices above moving averages.
• Bearish momentum (RSI < 50 with negative MACD or price below 15DMA):
  • RTBRISCOE (RSI 46.5), JOHNHOLT (RSI 32.3), LIVINGTRUST (RSI 38.3), CONOIL (RSI 33.4) all display persistent weakness—watch for further slides unless catalysts emerge.
• Dividends opportunities:
  • Some top gainers/losers have notable yields—e.g., NASCON (DivYield 3.08%), PZ (4.59%), RTBRISCOE (4.35%), REGALINS (6.52%). These high-yield, high-volatility names may entice income-seekers but caution is advised if technicals are turning bearish.

Sector & Index Review

• NGX Lotus Islamic Index led the charge, up 8.78% WTD (98.34% YTD!)—suggesting strong momentum in compliant blue chips and value rotation.
• NGX Oil/Gas (+8.42% WTD) and Industrial (+8.07% WTD) were clear sector outperformers, underlining continued inflows and improved sectoral outlook.
  • Contrast this with NGXBNK (-1.82% WTD) and NGXAFRBVI (-2.31% WTD): financials saw pronounced outflows as investors rotated into earnings growth sectors.
• NGX Growth Index remains the unequivocal YTD star with over 103% returns—momentum and speculative appetite are alive and well.
• While value-oriented and high dividend indexes slipped this week, their YTD returns remain healthy—rotational flow could present re-entry opportunities.

Top 5 YTD Gainers & Losers

Top 5 Week-To-Date (WTD) Gainers & Losers

Overlap Watch: Several WTD top gainers (ARADEL, NASCON, PZ) are also among YTD top gainers, indicating strong and sustained market momentum. Conversely, JOHNHOLT and LIVINGTRUST are both on the YTD and WTD loser tables and may be structurally challenged or out of favor.

Market Activity & Trade Patterns: Retail vs Institutional Analysis

• Institutional investors drove the market by value (93.02%) and volume (88.93%), but accounted for only 38.57% of total trade count—indicating they make fewer, larger trades. Retail investors made 61.43% of trades, but only contributed ~7% by value.
• Top 5 Most Traded by Institutionals:
  1. ARADEL (Integrated Oil & Gas, 4.49m shares, N3.53bn)
  2. MTNN (Telecoms, 2.29m shares, N1.19bn)
  3. ZENITHBANK (Banks, 13.37m shares, N900m)
  4. ACCESSCORP (Banks, 20.87m shares, N521m)
  5. DANGCEM (Building Materials, 1.07m shares, N708m)
• Top 5 Most Traded by Retail:
  1. MTNN (0.27m shares, N140m)
  2. UBA (1.77m shares, N75m)
  3. DANGCEM (0.13m shares, N85m)
  4. ARADEL (0.21m shares, N163m)
  5. ZENITHBANK (1.68m shares, N113m)
• Stocks like ARADEL and DANGCEM are highly favored by both institutional and retail investors (high volumes and values) and also appear on WTD gainers—watch for trend continuation as broad-based interest grows.
• Retail flows skew toward banking and telecom heavyweights, indicating these sectors remain core holdings for the mass market.

Trader Strategies & Cautions

• Momentum strategy: Leverage persistent gainers, especially those with both high RSI and repeated YTD/WTD top performance—ARADEL, NASCON, PZ—while watching for overbought signals and trailing stops.
• High-yield hunting: Income-seekers may look at names like NASCON or PZ, but only where technicals confirm uptrend.
• Profit taking & rotation: Watch YTD stars experiencing WTD pullbacks (STANBIC, LIVINGTRUST) for mean-reversion or further slide—sector rotation to industrials and energy remains underway.
• Bearish momentum: Avoid or short-sell stocks showing persistent technical weakness—such as JOHNHOLT, LIVINGTRUST, CONOIL, REGALINS—unless fresh fundamental catalysts emerge.
• Unusual volume focus: Double-volume breakouts in ARADEL, DANGCEM, and ACCESSCORP underscore conviction—these are best watched for large, sudden price moves next week.
• Be cautious of chasing lagging sectors: banking indexes and value/dividend plays declined despite healthy YTD, suggesting wait-and-see or selective buy-the-dip for now.

Hidden & Subtle Insights

• Leadership breadth is contracting: While Indexes hit new highs, leadership is narrowing to fewer stocks—a prelude to possible rotation or short-term pause.
• Institutional focus is on oil & energy, cement, and telecoms, which led both by trade value and volume—expect sector outperformance to persist near term.
• A small cluster of stocks dominated both price and volume change—trend followers may gain an edge by monitoring cross-table overlaps.
• Stocks with high dividend yields that are also showing bullish technicals (e.g., NASCON, PZ) may offer the rare blend of growth and yield.
• Bearish divergence in certain YTD gainers like CONOIL and STANBIC (sharp WTD loss/select sector underperformance) may reflect profit unlocking or competition from strong sectors—track for reversal signals.

Summary – The Market at a Glance

• Strong headline returns, driven by select sector rotation and institutional dominance.
• Narrowing leadership raises the stakes—choose momentum names wisely, and pair technical with fundamental signals.
• Rotation away from financials and into industrials, oil/gas, and growth names is clear—there’s opportunity in both following and fading these flows, depending on risk appetite.
• High conviction trades and fresh 52-week highs point to continued bullishness, but divergences warrant vigilance on trailing stops and mean-reversion trades.