NGX Market Summary – Friday, October 24, 2025

The Nigerian equities market ended the week on a resoundingly positive note, with the All Share Index (ASI) gaining +0.75% to close at 154,489.90, marking an impressive +50.85% year-to-date (YTD) return. Trading activity was robust, with turnover up +9.54% to ₦27.36B and volumes climbing above one billion shares. Market breadth was healthy at 1.33x, as advancers (36) outstripped decliners (27), reflecting a powerful bullish undertone. In addition to headline index gains, smart money flowed into big names and select momentum stocks, while pockets of heavy institutional activity and unusual volume flagged some critical stocks for close attention.

Key Market Trends and Observations

• Market Breadth & Activity:
  • Advancers: 36 | Decliners: 27 ⇒ Bullish tilt with breadth ratio 1.33x.
  • Trading Volume: 1.18B shares (vs. 902.77M prev.) and +9.54% value increase signals growing appetite for risk.
  • Turnover: Robust at ₦27.36B, showing real buying conviction as value flows rose outpaced volume growth.
  • Volume Up/Down: 62 stocks saw higher turnover; 77 experienced lower – a nuanced dynamic: fresh bets on select equities amidst some profit-taking elsewhere.
• Top Daily Gainers:
  • ASOSAVINGS +10.00% (RSI: 78.5, MACD trending up) — Intense momentum; overbought conditions but with consistent inflows.
  • VETINDETF +10.00% (RSI: 63.7) — ETF rally, could indicate sector rotation or a big block trade.
  • IKEJAHOTEL +7.89% (Crossed above 15DMA – bullish signal) — Resurgent hospitality play; new institutional interest observed.
  • REGALINS +7.44% — Short-term bounce, but RSI still subdued (37.9), suggesting window dressing or value buying.
  • CAVERTON +7.08%
• Top Daily Losers:
  • UNIONDICON -9.09% (Substantial drop on 12x normal volume—institutional exit suspected; triggers caution.)
  • NEIMETH -6.67% (Hefty YTD gain, now encountering profit-taking.)
  • CORNERST -5.61% (Crossed below 15DMA, RSI at 54.1; recent euphoria fading.)
  • HMCALL -4.84% (Unusual volume: 8.64M vs. 1.28M 90d avg.)
  • STANBICETF30 -4.76%
• Unusual Volume:
  • FIDELITYBK: +1,548.9% to 820.9M shares — possible strategic accumulation; watch for follow-through.
  • TANTALIZER: +534.5% volume — speculative flurry or institution-driven?
  • CWG, HMCALL, UNIONDICON all saw volumes at least +300% above norm — suggests tactical block moves. Union Dicon combines high loss with record volume: strong sell-off warning.

Momentum & Technical Signals

• Bullish Momentum (Above 15DMA):
  • IKEJAHOTEL +7.32% — Technical breakout above 15DMA, PE (51.55), moderate Beta (0.70). Watch for possible mean reversion but institutional volume supports move.
    [See sparkline: 15DMA (▲) above 50DMA]
  • NEM +6.33% — Insurance play with significant Div. Yield and strong momentum, PE (24.99), low Beta (defensive characteristic).
  • CHAMPION +3.92% — RSI 54.4 is not overbought, but price above 15DMA with bullish MACD, indicating early-stage rally despite weak YTD (-9.8%). Contrarian signal, see below.
  • CUSTODIAN +3.70% — MACD positive, solid value and yield characteristics.
  • MCNICHOLS — Defensive tilt, high dividend yield, recently entered bullish territory (slight %Chg).
• Bearish Momentum (Below 15DMA):
  • UBA -1.43%, price below 15DMA, RSI cooled to 47.1, suggesting profit-taking after previous institutional accumulation.
  • CORNERST -5.94%, now below 15DMA with a still-neutral RSI, suggesting the recent rally has run out of steam.
  • HMCALL -5.08% — Listed under both high volume and bearish momentum; momentum traders should monitor for possible further downside.
  • UNIONDICON -10.00% — Strong sell-off likely to persist, RSI neutral, but not yet oversold.
  • STANBICETF30: -5.00% — ETF under pressure, signals sector/market rotation.

Year-To-Date Gainers & Losers: Highlights & Patterns

• Hidden YTD Momentum:
  • ASOSAVINGS, top gainer today, is also a top 5 YTD and 5-Day performer (YTD: +32%, RSI: 78.5, MACD positive). Warning: extremely overbought, ripe for a short-term correction but still strong momentum.
  • NEIMETH: Paradox — massive YTD gain (+123%) but now in the bottom 5 daily losers and showing negative 5D momentum. Possible reversal zone after outsized rally.
  • REGALINS: Appears as top daily gainer but is a YTD loser. Likely "oversold bounce" in the short term, not confirmation of trend reversal.
  • HMCALL & UNIONDICON: Appear in both ‘unusual volume’ and bearish tables, compounding risk — large positions unwound.

Contrarian Signals – Mixed Technicals

• CHAMPION (CHAMPION BREW. PLC.):
  • YTD loss (-9.8%), RSI at 54.4, but price just broke above 15DMA with bullish MACD and healthy volume — possible reversal after a long downtrend. Watch for sustained flows for confirmation.
• CORNERST:
  • RSI neutral (54.1), price below 15DMA, MACD turning flat — could whipsaw traders in both directions. Validate with sectoral moves.
• REGALINS: Top daily gainer, but with negative YTD (-16.1%), and low RSI (37.9) — short-term rally or dead cat bounce?

Sector Heatmap & Institutional/Retail Activity

Institutional clustering most visible in ZENITHBANK and ARADEL. FIDELITYBK exhibited blockbuster volume (institutional accumulation highly likely).

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Stock Mapping)

• Defensive Dividend Picks: REGALINS and MCNICHOLS combine high yield with low Beta, but MCNICHOLS also has a bullish technical crossover.
• PZ and NASCON: Blend yield, strong trend persistence, and rising volume — worthy of watchlists for both growth and defensive portfolio purposes.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of total institutional trade value — heavy bank interest. However, technicals are bearish (price below 15DMA, down -0.52% today); possible accumulation phase or window dressing before quarter close.
• ARADEL: Strong institutional buy-side volume supporting short-term gains. Watch for possible further push next week.
• DANGCEM, MTNN, ACCESSCORP: Appear high in both institution/retail order books — market leadership clusters.

Market Activity & Trade Summary — Retail vs. Institutional

• Institutional vs Retail:
  • Institutional: 38.57% of trades but a dominant 88.93% of volumes and 93% of value, showing that big moves (and price-setting trades) still rest with institutions.
  • Retail: 61.43% of trade count but only 11.1% of volume/value — more active but with smaller tickets, typical of trend followers and speculative flows.
• Top 5 Institutional Traded Stocks:
  • ARADEL (oil), MTNN (telecom), ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, DANGCEM (cement)
  • These are mostly mega-cap, sectoral leaders, and/or stocks in the midst of big technical moves. The clustering around these names by institutions strongly suggests a rotation to quality and market influencers.
• Top 5 Retail Traded Stocks:
  • Nearly the same list: MTNN, UBA, DANGCEM, ARADEL, ZENITHBANK
  • Shows retail investors are following "hot” institutional names, risking short-term chases but capturing the bulk of momentum.

Currency Market

• Naira improved by +0.18% against the dollar to ₦1,463/$ — positive for importers, potentially supportive for banks and consumer names.

Trader Suggestions & Action Points

• Opportunities:
  • ASOSAVINGS, at a +32% YTD, strong RSI, but overbought. Great for quick trades, but trail stops rigorously.
  • Institutional heavyweights (ARADEL, MTNN, DANGCEM): Watch for next leg higher if flows persist.
  • Defensive, High Dividend & Low Beta Stock: MCNICHOLS, REGALINS — especially for risk-off or yield-focused portfolios; MCNICHOLS has the added bonus of a bullish 15DMA technical breakout.
  • Unusual Volume Candidates: FIDELITYBK, HMCALL, UNIONDICON — ride momentum on breakouts, but stay nimble; for negative moves (e.g., UNIONDICON), avoid catching falling knives.
• Cautions:
  • Several YTD gainers (NEIMETH, REGALINS) among today's losers — beware sharp mean-reversion trades!
  • UNIONDICON, HMCALL: Both high negative momentum and huge volume spikes — risk of more downside if institutional exits continue.
  • ZENITHBANK: Heavy institutional clustering but bearish technicals — only enter when technicals confirm rebound.
  • Market Breadth cooling—while bullish, the volume-down crowd (77 stocks) could signal a rotating market. Stockpicking matters more than ever.

Ending Note: Hidden Insights

• Institutions setting the tone; retail flows are strong but follow-the-leader in character. Pay particular attention to which "institutional favorites" break out or falter next week.
• Sector leadership is forming around Banks, Building Materials, and select Consumer Goods. Insurance and Real Estate bear watching for possible mean reversion.
• Momentum stocks (ASOSAVINGS, ARADEL, IKEJAHOTEL, NEM) have persistent flows, but watch technicals for exits as some are extremely extended (high RSIs).

As ever, diligent traders and portfolio managers should resist chasing whipsaw moves and instead wait for alignment of technical momentum, institutional flows, and fundamental value. The next phase of leadership is likely to emerge from today's institutional clusters and defensive high-yield plays with bullish reversals.