Nigerian Stock Market Weekly Review: Week Ending October 31, 2025

In a marked shift from last week's bullish run, the NGX All Share Index (ASI) pulled back -0.88% this week to close at 154,126.43, down from the previous high of 155,496.15. While the year-to-date return remains robust at 49.38%, it softened from last week’s 50.85%. Trading activity was notably sluggish: market turnover declined a sharp -20.01%, and volumes contracted -52.31%, even as trade deals ticked up 4.83%. Market breadth was negative, with just 19.66% of stocks advancing and 42.13% retreating. However, 11 companies managed to hit new highs. The key highlight was the outperformance of dividend-focused and growth strategies; meanwhile, Insurance, Oil/Gas, and Consumer Goods indexes dragged. The naira also contributed a marginally positive backdrop, appreciating 0.72% against the dollar.

Quick Market Highlights

• Market Breadth:
  • Market breadth ratio at 0.47x signaled broad weakness—35 advancers vs. 75 decliners.
  • Only 19.66% of listed stocks advanced; 42.13% declined.
  • Notably, 11 stocks achieved new 52-week highs; no new 52-week lows—showing selected underlying strength.
• Top 5 Week-to-Date (WTD) Gainers:
  • ASO SAVINGS AND LOANS PLC (ASOSAVINGS): +43.06% (RSI: 93.83 - extremely overbought; caution needed for late entrants.)
  • MERISTEM GROWTH ETF (MERGROWTH): +20.99% (Negative MACD + moderate RSI—potential slowdown ahead.)
  • OANDO PLC (OANDO): +14.40% (Resurgence matched by high volumes, strong institutional interest; RSI at 54.71 suggests further headroom.)
  • JULIUS BERGER NIG. PLC (JBERGER): +13.28% (RSI: 55.80—still in bullish zone, with fresh highs possible.)
  • BERGER PAINTS PLC (BERGER): +9.25% (RSI: 65.92; flagging possible short-term overbought conditions.)
• Top 5 Week-to-Date (WTD) Losers:
  • CHAMS PLC (CHAMS): -19.76% (RSI: 62.38 - surprisingly still bullish, implying ongoing volatility rather than pure weakness.)
  • SUNU ASSURANCES NIGERIA PLC (SUNUASSUR): -18.00% (RSI: 41.57; strong negative momentum and continued sell-off.)
  • ETERNA PLC (ETERNA): -17.24% (RSI: 48.15; possible technical selling after prior rallies.)
  • OMATEK VENTURES PLC (OMATEK): -17.12% (RSI at 51.25—despite steep drop, no oversold signals, so further weakness is possible.)
  • JOHN HOLT PLC (JOHNHOLT): -16.92% (RSI: 19.86; borderline oversold, could attract bargain hunters in coming sessions.)
• RSI & Momentum Insights:
  • Bullish momentum (RSI > 70):
    • ASOSAVINGS (RSI: 93.83) • MERVAL ETF (RSI: 71.20) • ETI (RSI: 71.59)
    • All three show classic overbought readings; risk of profit-taking rises, but positive sentiment could persist in short term.
    • Both ASOSAVINGS and MERVALUE ETF also display significant positive MACD histograms and short MA above long MA (15D > 50D) – confirming bullishness with a warning on potential sharp corrections.
  • Bearish momentum (RSI < 30):
    • Barely any major names fell into classic oversold territory, apart from JOHNHOLT (RSI: 19.86), suggesting select opportunities for bargain-hunters and that declines may not yet have reached exhaustion across the market.
• Unusual Volume & Trade Patterns:
  • OANDO displayed high volume with strong institutional interest (top 2 position for both institutional and retail trades), fueling its robust weekly gain.
  • GTCO saw heavy trading both among institutions (12.48% of institutional volume) and retailers (0.16%), but price was pressured, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation.
  • ZENITHBANK saw high institutional and retail activity but ended the week negative (-3.82% for the day; -8.70% MTD), highlighting rotation out of key banking names.
• Dividend Yield & Defensive Plays:
  • Notable overlap: High dividend stocks like ASOSAVINGS (DivYield: 10.00%) and CHAMS PLC (DivYield: 1.56%) appear in both gainers and losers, emphasizing the volatility even within perceived "safety" stocks.

Key Indexes: Weekly & Yearly Performance Table

Index Comparison & Sector Insights

• Dividend Yield Focus Outperformed: NGX AFR Div Yield Index returned +2.35% WTD, versus broad market decline—showing rotational interest in yield plays.
• Growth Still Prevails YTD: NGX MERI Growth Index leads with a massive 58.17% YTD, but the pace slowed this week (0.11%).
• Underperformers:
  • NGX Insurance and Oil/Gas Index disappointed, dropping -4.51% and -3.79% respectively—cautious sentiment towards riskier or cyclical sectors.
  • Consumer Goods also retreated (-2.09% WTD) but maintains YTD leadership (+103.78%).
• Banking: NGXBNK barely moved this week (-0.13%), but remains up 34.85% YTD—underlining range-bound trading and possible sector rotation.

Top 5 Year-To-Date (YTD) Gainers & Losers

Top 5 Week-To-Date (WTD) Gainers & Losers Table

• Noticeable overlaps:
  • ASOSAVINGS is both the top WTD and YTD gainer, supported by sky-high RSI; caution advised for late buyers.
  • CHAMS PLC sits in both WTD loser and YTD gainer slots, reinforcing a volatile "roller coaster" move.

Retail vs Institutional Activity Analysis

• Institutions drove liquidity, accounting for 70.19% of total volume and a whopping 90.80% of traded value on just 39.17% of trade actions.
• Retail investors provided breadth with 60.83% of trades but limited monetary impact (9.20% of value) and lower average trade size—suggesting more short-term/speculative plays.

Top 5 Most Traded Stocks (Institutional & Retail)

• OANDO, GTCO, ZENITHBANK, and MTNN are top trades for both institutions and retailers. This overlap suggests heavy two-way speculative action, as well as potential distribution/rotation plays by large investors.
• MTNN: High RSI, low price movement, but major liquidity focus for both groups—likely a short-term "safe haven" and possibly the next volatility candidate if volumes persist.
• Sector pattern: Oil & Gas (OANDO, ARADEL), Banking (GTCO, ZENITHBANK), and Telecoms (MTNN) are core focus sectors for big and small traders alike.
• Retail skewed to Insurance via AIICO: This may be speculative bargain hunting after sharp sector declines.

Strategic Takeaways and Suggestions for Traders

• Investors should note the narrowing market breadth and take profits on extended runs, especially where RSI is elevated (e.g., ASOSAVINGS, ETI, MERVALUE).
• Dividend-yield stocks are bid up, but several (ASOSAVINGS, CHAMS) are also highly volatile; investors should monitor for sharp reversals.
• Declines in key indexes (Insurance, Oil/Gas, Consumer Goods) warrant caution, but Consumer Goods remains an attractive play on any pullbacks given YTD strength.
• Watch for Reversal: Select stocks—especially those with RSI near or below 20 (JOHNHOLT)—may offer short-term rebound opportunities.
• Heavy institutional activity in sectors like Oil & Gas could foreshadow continued sector leadership in any rebound scenario.
• Short-term caution is advised as turnover and volumes have contracted while trade counts rise, pointing to a choppier, more retail-driven near-term market.
• Actionable: Consider trailing stop-losses for high-RSI winners, look for bargain entries in formerly bullish sectors that are now oversold, and monitor institutions’ moves for early signs of sector rotation.

In summary, breadth is narrowing, volumes are thinning, but select high-yield and momentum stocks (some coincidentally volatile) still offer opportunity. Defensive buying is emerging in dividend names. Stay vigilant for reversals and watch sector flows closely as institutions reposition in the wake of the recent rally.