Nigeria Stock Market Weekly Summary – Week Ending Friday, November 21, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) again struggled for momentum, notching its second consecutive week of declines, falling -0.94% to close at 143,790.91. Year to date, however, the Nigerian equity markets remain standout performers with ASI up a robust 39.36%, even after recent weakness. Market breadth painted a challenging picture for bulls as decliners overwhelmingly outnumbered advancers, and market turnover slumped, signaling waning participation and risk appetite. Notably, the NGX Sovereign Bond Index defied the general malaise with a subtle weekly gain, while the insurance, banking, and value indices suffered the steepest sectoral declines.

Key Market Trends and Breadth

• Market Breadth: A weak breadth ratio at 0.37x, with only 25 advancing stocks vs 68 decliners, means negative sentiment is broadening.
• Trading Activity: Turnover fell dramatically week-on-week, with value and volume both down by -135.97% and -74.08% respectively; trade deals also fell -55.01%, as risk appetite continues to moderate after a strong run YTD.
• New Highs/Lows: Despite the overall weakness, there were 4 new highs versus zero new lows, and volume increased week-on-week for 142 stocks – evidence of selective accumulation.

Top 5 YTD Gainers & Losers

Top 5 WTD (Weekly) Gainers & Losers

• NCR Nigeria topped both the YTD and WTD gainer charts, surging 46.00% WTD and 647.27% YTD—momentum remains extremely strong here (RSI also at extreme levels). This stock appears to be in a "runaway rally" phase, but beware mean reversion risk given its 98.85 RSI (overbought).
• UACN and CAVERTON are also present in both top WTD and YTD gainers—indicative of a powerful, sustained momentum trend backed by fundamentals or technical rotation.
• LIVINGTRUST features in both top WTD and YTD losers, signaling persistent selling pressure and potential equity fatigue.
• Among the top WTD losers, INTL ENERGY INSURANCE (-22.06%), VERITAS KAPITAL (-14.89%), and MCNICHOLS (-14.33%) stand out for deeper, outsized weekly declines.

Bullish & Bearish Momentum Insights (RSI, MACD, MAs)

• Stocks with Bullish Momentum:
  • NCR: RSI 98.85 (extremely overbought), price is above both 15D and 50D MAs (24.60 & 18.39), and a strong MACD positive histogram. This is textbook momentum, but caution is warranted for late entrants.
  • SIAMLETF40: RSI 84.01—ETF format, price and MACD confirm strong bullish structure.
  • UACN, UPL, CAVERTON, and VETGRIF30: all register RSI readings above 48, with price strength above recent moving averages, suggesting broad-based follow-through.
• Stocks with Bearish Momentum:
  • INTENEGINS, VERITASKAP RSI 33.15, 38.55, deep negative MACD and sustained underperformance.
  • LIVESTOCK & LIVINGTRUST: Both suffered double-digit WTD drops with weak RSI, negative MACD histogram, and prices moving below key moving averages—a classic bearish breakdown.
  • However, none of the major losers fell below RSI 30. This may indicate more downside room remains for true "oversold" reversals.

Sector & Indexes Analysis

• Consumer Goods remains the YTD outperformer (+98.64% YTD), while insurance stocks led sector declines WTD, falling a steep -7.12%—mirrored by persistent weekly declines in individual insurance names.
• Sovereign Bonds alone posted a positive print WTD (+0.32%), suggesting defensive sector rotation amid broader uncertainty.
• Industrial, Banking, and "Value" sectors continue to lag in the short run despite strong YTDs.

Market Activity & Trade Flows — Institutional vs Retail

• Institutions clearly dominate in value and volume, accounting for 94.45% of turnover and 81.45% of volume but only just over 1/3 of trade count—institutions are deploying much higher capital per trade.
• Retail accounts for almost 2/3 of all trade counts, reflecting more fragmented, smaller trades, but only a sliver of total market value.

Top 5 Most Traded Stocks (Institutional Investors)

Top 5 Most Traded Stocks (Retail Investors)

• Institutional investors clearly favor large-cap financials (ZENITHBANK, GTCO, ACCESSCORP)—likely reflecting confidence in these stocks' resilience/liquidity in turbulent weeks. MTNN is the only non-financial in their top 5, and it is a usual institutional staple.
• Retail flows also concentrate on the same names but their volumes are orders of magnitude lower—showing that institutions still "drive the bus" in price discovery for the largest stocks.
• ACCESSCORP enjoys the highest combined institutional + retail trading activity, but also posted noteworthy weekly declines (WTD -7.87%), suggesting possible institutional profit-taking or rotation out of the name.
• Large negative volume % change in ACCESSCORP and ZENITHBANK may signal upcoming volatility or further price re-adjustments as accumulated positions are unwound or rebalanced.

Hidden Insights & Suggestions

• Turnover and Participation: The sharp decline in market turnover and trades (vol. and value) could point either to end-of-year fatigue, profit taking, or wait-and-see stance as the market digests earlier gains. Watch out for rebound signals in turnover as a precursor to renewed price action.
• Breadth Readings: The persistent negative breadth (many more decliners than advancers) plus declining total participation suggest a near-term bearish bias, but the lack of deeply "oversold" RSI readings means there's still risk of further downside rather than imminent reversal for laggards.
• Momentum Names/Rotation: Strong overlap between YTD and WTD gainers (NCR, UACN, CAVERTON) points to stubborn bullish momentum but RSI extremes (>70 and, for NCR, >90) warn of possible exhaustion. Avoid late chasing; watch for post-euphoria corrections.
• Income Opportunities: Several high-dividend stocks are among the week's best/worst performers (e.g., ROYALEX with 7.81% yield; INTENEGINS with 3.40% yield). These could attract income-seeking investors if prices stabilize.
• Sector Divergence: Consumer Goods is in a secular uptrend YTD, suggesting continued investor faith in non-cyclical sectors; meanwhile, Insurance and Banking lag WTD, mirroring risk-off behavior. Watch for reversal in downtrodden sectors as a signal for possible rotation.
• Large Cap Liquidity: Institutions continue to focus liquidity on top bank stocks, while retail investors demonstrate herding tendencies with the same names. Watch for wide swings or signaling events in these shares as indicators for overall market mood.
• Currency Depreciation: The Naira's -0.67% weekly drop against the USD may accentuate foreign investor caution but could also channel local funds into equities as a hedge.

What Traders Should Watch Next Week

• Be patient on momentum stocks with sky-high RSI—pullbacks are likely before new rallies.
• For income stocks (high div. yield), watch stabilization in price before entry—falling knives can keep falling.
• Monitor volume and turnover—a sudden spike (accompanied by reversal in price) will be a key sign the mood is shifting.
• Watch for any reversal in breadth or a bounce in heavyweights (banks/telecoms) as broader support for a market rebound.
• Institutional flows remain the best "tell" for trend confirmation in large caps.