NGX Market Summary – Tuesday, October 21, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) advanced by +1.01% to close at 149,940.81, continuing its bullish run with a stellar YTD return of +46.79%. Despite higher overall trading volumes (486.24M vs. 415.04M in the previous session), market turnover dropped notably by -33.52% to ₦17.92B, reflecting broad but lighter weighted participation across the market. Market breadth was slightly negative at 0.91x, as decliners (33) marginally outpaced advancers (30), underscoring some underlying caution amid the index’s climb. The day’s top gainer was S C O A NIG. PLC. (SCOA), surging +7.74%, while OMATEK VENTURES PLC (OMATEK) led the losers, falling -7.48%. Trading desk activity pointed to institutional dominance by value, but retail traders led by trade count, echoing a diverse underlying sentiment. Today's market produced several nuanced signals for short-term tacticians and long-term investors alike.

Key Market Trends

• Market Breadth: Advancers (30), Decliners (33) - breadth at 0.91x, indicating a slightly cautious undertone despite the ASI's gain.
• Top Gainers:
  • SCOA: +7.74% (RSI 55.3) – Short-term momentum up, but not overbought; price is above the 15D and 50D MAs.
  • OMATEK: +7.48% (RSI 60.2) – Despite being a gainer, OMATEK’s RSI is approaching the high 60s, so monitor for potential near-term exhaustion.
  • BUAFOODS: +6.54% – Steady uptrend, strong YTD and RSI above 60.
  • VITAFOAM: +5.92% (RSI 66.1) – Near overbought territory, but price action/volume remain robust.
• Top Losers:
  • LIVINGTRUST: -9.91% (RSI 39.6) – Strong volume spike (+222.6% vs 90D avg), YTD -8.68%, trending into oversold territory, momentum breakdown confirmed by negative MACD and a price drop below both MAs.
  • NEWGOLD ETF: -7.89% (RSI 54.1) – Heavy institutional instruments driving risk-off sentiment, with negative momentum (below 15DMA).
  • CONOIL: -5.83% (RSI 41.8) – Top 5 YTD loser, pressure continues as breakdown below both 15DMA/50DMA is confirmed.
  • AFRIPRUD: -5.69% (RSI 49.6, YTD -37.61%) – Dividend play under heavy sell pressure, with breakdown below 15DMA and muted MACD signal.
  • SOVRENINS: -3.95%, (YTD still green), but volume up, and technicals mixed.
• Unusual Volume:
  • PZ Cussons: Traded volume +784% above its 90-day average, despite a -1.53% drop. Spike aligns with a bearish MA crossover.
  • VFDGROUP: +396% surge, though down -1.82% today – short-term support is suspect.
  • LIVINGTRUST: Volume up +223% (also today's top loser) – possible panic selling or institutional exit.
  • WEMABANK: +189% volume and price up +1.88%, suggesting a bullish push supported by both retail and institutional flows.

Year-to-Date Top 5 Gainers & Losers (as of October 21, 2025)

Momentum Trend Insights

• Bullish Crossovers (Above 15DMA): OANDO (+3.22%), CADBURY (+2.90%), WEMABANK (+1.84%), TRANSCORP (+1.44%)
  • Momentum signals are broadening in banking and consumer sectors. WEMABANK, with both high volume and price up, suggests conviction behind the move.
• Bearish Crossovers (Below 15DMA): CUTIX, PZ, HONYFLOUR, AIICO, NEM, STERLINGNG, AFRIPRUD, NEWGOLD, FGS202890.
  • Notably, AFRIPRUD and NEWGOLD are both in high-dividend or defensive plays, experiencing technical breakdowns, which may be profit taking or a rotation out of defensive stocks.
  • PZ and NEM also on high volume, strengthening the bearish signal.
• RSI Extremes: EUNISELL (88.6), SOVRENINS (63.9), VITAFOAM (66.1) are elevated – watch for reversals. No mainstream large-cap with RSI below 30 (deep oversold).
• Overlap Watch: VITAFOAM, BUAFOODS, SCOA – all appear in Top Daily/5 Day Gainers and have bullish technicals (MACD/MA Crosses), reinforcing momentum. LIVINGTRUST and AFRIPRUD are notable as Top Losers YTD and today, combining weak price, negative breadth, and technical breakdowns, suggesting ongoing distribution.

Contrarian Signals

• SOVRENINS: Despite being a top YTD gainer (+196.75%), it was down today (-3.95%) with a rising RSI (63.9) and bullish MACD, signaling possible divergence – a probable profit-taking phase, not a structural reversal yet.
• AFRIPRUD: High dividend yield (1.27%), but in a clear technical breakdown on high volume—yield trap alert for unsuspecting defensive investors.
• LIVINGTRUST: Huge volume, deep daily/YTD loss, yet its RSI is not yet in oversold (<30), warning quick bounces might be only dead cat rallies without real support.
• VFDGROUP: Unusual volume (+396%), down on price. Heavy churn may indicate accumulation under the surface, or a distribution top ahead.

Sector Heatmap & Institutional Cluster Highlights

Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunity Scan

• Note: High dividend stocks (AFRIPRUD, SOVRENINS, VITAFOAM) are showing split momentum – essential to watch for confirmation before buying for yield.

Market Activity Analysis & Trading Desk Insights

• Turnover Watch: Today’s -33.5% drop in turnover with increased volumes suggests a shift to lower-priced, high-turnover names and/or a reduction in large block institutional trades—risk appetite tilting toward retail- or mid-cap driven action, not heavy institutional repositioning.
• Retail vs Institutional:

  Investor Type	Trade Count	Total Volume	Trade Value	% by Trade Count	% by Value
  Institutional	2,350	379.71M	₦18.55B	37.44%	90.27%
  Retail	25,315	172.27M	₦1.99B	62.56%	9.73%

  • Insight: Institutions dominated value (90%+), but trade count remains retail-driven. This usually signals a mix of "smart money” risk-on/off positioning (institutional) alongside speculative and tactical retail flows.
• Top Institutional Trades: ZENITHBANK, DANGCEM, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, MTNN
  • ZENITHBANK: 20.17% institutional value dominance – possible accumulation by funds.
  • ACCESSCORP, GTCO: Large blocks, but both flat/day or slightly negative, hinting at rotation or defensive position-building (not runaway momentum).
• Top Retail Traded Stocks: UBA, MTNN, ACCESSCORP, DANGCEM, FCMB
  • Heavy overlap with institutional focus except UBA and FCMB, which skew more retail-driven today. Retail is chasing legacy banking and telecom names, tracking institutional volume for cues.

Opportunities & Trader Suggestions

• Momentum Buys:
  • WEMABANK, OANDO, CADBURY (all crossed above 15DMA, strong volume, bullish tape) – actionable for short-term spikes or swing trading.
  • Monitor VITAFOAM and BUAFOODS as continuation plays, but beware near-term reversals as RSI nears overbought.
• Contrarian Sells or Protect Profits:
  • AFRIPRUD: High dividend, but technical breakdown plus lingering sell-side pressure.
  • LIVINGTRUST: Heavy volume, steep drop, but no panic RSI yet – avoid, unless looking for speculative bounce plays (high risk).
• Yield + Momentum Alert: VITAFOAM mixes high dividend, positive momentum, and moderate risk (beta < 1) – could be a sweet spot for defensive traders, but don’t overstay as RSI nears 70.
• Institutional Cluster Alert: Monitor ZENITHBANK for follow-through – if institutional buying persists, could kickstart sector moves.
• High Volume Anomalies to Watch: PZ, VFDGROUP – look for confirmation of direction after heavy churn.
• For swing or mean-reversion traders: LIVINGTRUST potential bounce, but confirmation (RSI < 30) is not there yet.

Hidden and Emerging Patterns

• Volume-Inertia Gaps: Market volume rose while turnover fell, signaling smaller ticket sizes and a rise in speculative/retail-led trades.
• Momentum & Defensive Overlap: Some high dividend, low beta names (VITAFOAM) are still in uptrends, but others (AFRIPRUD) have faltered – screening for fresh momentum within the dividend/beta cohort is critical.
• Institutional Flows: Focused clusters (ZENITHBANK, DANGCEM) could foreshadow sector rotations or portfolio rebalancing. Persistent clustering often leads to breakout/trending moves if confirmed by price.
• Watchlist Additions for Next Move: WEMABANK (bullish), PZ (high churn bearish), LIVINGTRUST (possible bounce, speculative), ZENITHBANK (institutional signal), VITAFOAM (for profit-taking signs).