NGX Daily Market Summary – Thursday, July 24, 2025

Markets finished Thursday on a steady stride, with the NGX All Share Index rising by 0.48% to close at 132,557.43. The YTD return remains robust at 29.09%. Trading activity soared, as turnover climbed by a striking 40.22% to ₦20.97B, with total traded volume at 729.23M shares—marking a clear spike from yesterday’s 625.86M. Market breadth leaned positive (advancers/decliners ratio = 1.21x), with 47 stocks in the green against 39 laggards. Notably, the surge was amplified by outsized trading in select insurance, food, and banking counters. Meanwhile, the Naira eased quietly (-0.05%) against the dollar, pausing at ₦1,530/$1.

Market Breadth & Significant Trends

• Advancers outnumbered decliners (47 to 39), solidifying bullish undertones. Volume gains skewed slightly positive (up for 73 stocks, down for 69).
• Turnover leap (+40.22%) outpaced volume growth—signals high-value trades driving activity, especially among large caps and ETFs.
• Sector rotation is evident: Insurance and select Industrial names stood out via large price swings and volumes (evidenced by unusual volume in REGALINS, CONHALLPLC, and JAPAULGOLD).

Top Gainers and Losers

• Top Gainer: ACADEMY PRESS PLC (ACADEMY) — +10.00% to ₦8.47; solidifying recent momentum (RSI: 63, fresh 15/50DMA crossover).
• SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE PLC (SOVRENINS) — +10.00%, maintaining presence in both daily and YTD gainers, supported by bullish momentum.
• THE INITIATES PLC (TIP): Jumps +9.97% (RSI: 88, overbought zone!) and is also YTD’s best performer (+487%). Potential profit-taking risk is rising.
• Top Loser: FTN COCOA (FTNCOCOA) — -10.00% (but, interestingly, its price crossed above 15DMA—contradictory signal, see Contrarian Section below).
• VETIVA S&P NIGERIA SOVEREIGN BOND ETF (VSPBONDETF): -42.86% — significant ETF weakness, also YTD’s top loser (-14.28%), now in clear bearish territory (price substantially below 15DMA and 50DMA).

Deeper Insights and Trends

• Implication of Turnover Increase: The 40.22% jump in turnover, outstripping volume, reflects institutional repositioning—likely in large caps, ETFs, and high-beta names. This is supported by the institutional trade value now comprising 90.28% of the day’s total value.
• Advancing vs. Declining: Positive breadth (1.21x) cements bullish bias, though the narrowing gap suggests selectivity; midsmall caps and insurance stocks are fueling breadth.
• Notables in Unusual Volume:
  • CONSOLIDATED HALLMARK INSURANCE (CONHALLPLC): +810% vs its 90d avg; watch for spillover into next session.
  • REGALINS, JAPAULGOLD, GUINEAINS: Insurance, gold/energy, and micro-cap names attracting speculative flows (likely retail-driven spikes).
  • NIGERIAN BREWERIES (NB): Institutional quality and a defensive tilt; persistent high volume with mild price retreat may hint at supply absorption by value-seeking buyers.
• YTD Gainers & Momentum Stocks: Overlap
  • TIP (THE INITIATES PLC): Present both as top gainer today and YTD (+487%), with extremely high RSI (88), a strong MACD, and 15DMA above 50DMA (bullish continuation). However, these overbought signals flag caution—mean reversion possible.
  • ACADEMY also features both in daily and YTD gainers list (+168.89% YTD, RSI 63); consolidating a strong uptrend but approaching overbought levels.
  • SOVRENINS sits on both short and medium-term top lists, yet with a more moderate RSI (52), suggesting more ‘steady’ momentum; 15DMA > 50DMA.
• Bullish Momentum Stocks:
  • OANDO: Crossover above 15DMA with healthy volume; RSI in mid-range—still room to run before overbought territory is reached.
  • MCNICHOLS and LINKASSURE: Bullish price moves x 15DMA surge coupled with high PE multiples and low betas—potential momentum and defensive combo.
• Bearish Momentum Stocks:
  • JOHNHOLT and VSPBONDETF both feature in daily and YTD top losers and in bearish momentum tables—suggests a deeply entrenched downtrend needing fundamental reversal to spark buying interest.
  • WAPIC, LIVESTOCK, FIDELITYBK: Price slips below 15DMA signal growing seller dominance (note: FIDELITYBK’s fall below 15DMA is the first in many weeks).

Contrarian Signals

• FTN COCOA (FTNCOCOA): Despite a 10% loss today and appearance among top daily losers, it crossed above its 15DMA and has no negative divergence on MACD. This creates a mixed technical read—watch for reversal attempts as short-term technical buyers meet longer-term sellers.
• SOVRENINS: RSI of 52—staying below overbought levels, yet up 16% YTD and showing 15DMA > 50DMA, signals possible further grind higher.
• TIP: Exceptionally high RSI (88) is screaming "overbought”, but price momentum (MACD positive, large move, and bullish moving average pattern) still strong; active traders should beware of abrupt reversals.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Selected)

• MCNICHOLS, UCAP, FIDELITYBK, LINKASSURE—all pay attractive dividends and appear in momentum rankings; this is rare and provides a blend of income and capital appreciation for risk-averse traders.
• Watch FIDELITYBK specifically: high dividend but recent bearish cross below 15DMA—if the macro backdrop worsens, dividend alone may not support the stock.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional trade value share is 20.17% of total institutional trade value today—indicates strong institutional involvement, possibly linked with quarterly portfolio adjustments or flow chasing yield.
• ACCESSCORP and UBA—both saw heavy institutional and retail interest, suggesting broad confidence in leading banks, though retail trade volume remains a fraction of institutional volume.

Market Trades Activity Breakdown

• Split: Institutional investors contributed just 40.43% of total trades but 90.28% of total value (₦20.46BN), highlighting block trades and large orders in sizable blue chips. Retail made up 59.57% of trades, but only 9.72% of value—confirming their focus on lower-priced, higher-velocity stocks.
• Most traded by institution:
  • ACCESSCORP, DANGSUGAR, OKOMUOIL, UBA, ZENITHBANK—all blue-chip, high-liquidity.
• Most traded by retail:
  • ACCESSCORP, DANGSUGAR, UBA, GTCO, ZENITHBANK—again, blue-chip overlap with institutions, suggesting alignment in favoured names for today’s session. Only GTCO (retail trade), not institutional top 5.
• Correlation/Patterns:
  • Institutional orders concentrated in banks and leading industrials coincide with high turnover and limited price gains—volume absorption rather than speculative markup.
  • Retail is chasing volatility and speculative names—also seen with high activity spikes in insurance microcaps and unusual volume in previously illiquid names.

Trader Suggestions & Opportunities

• Bullish Play: Traders can monitor SOVRENINS, OANDO, MCNICHOLS, and UCAP for potential trend continuation—especially as they combine momentum with income (dividend).
• Caution Advised: Beware overbought conditions in TIP (RSI 88—likely ripe for profit-taking!) and VSPBONDETF (ETF weakness + price/MO break).
• Contrarian Watch: FTNCOCOA’s technical divergence provides a "fast money” setup if sellers exhaust and price reclaims today’s losses.
• Institutional Alignment: Positioning alongside institutional flows, especially in ZENITHBANK and ACCESSCORP, could offer steadier risk-adjusted returns.
• High-Yield Watch: Diligently track dividend stocks coinciding with bullish momentum (MCNICHOLS, LINKASSURE)—favorable for investors seeking cushion against volatility.

Top 5 YTD Gainers & Losers (For Thursday Reference)

* Color legend: green = bullish/positive, red = bearish/negative, yellow = neutral/shifting

Summary: Key Hidden Insights

• Stock-overlap Alert: TIP, ACADEMY, and SOVRENINS maintain places on both daily and YTD gainers, combining momentum with trend reliability.
• Volume-Price Divergence: Large unusual volume (e.g., REGALINS, CONHALLPLC) outpaces price appreciation—possible emergence of new buyers or early institutional stake-building.
• Beware of Overbought RSI Flags: TIP, NGXGROUP, and NAHCO; these could be "crowded trades” primed for sharp reversals.
• Dividend + Momentum Pairings: MCNICHOLS, UCAP, LINKASSURE, and FIDELITYBK thread the needle between income and trend—distinct but potentially short-lived, especially if macro stress rises.
• Bullish-Bearish Sector Divergence: ETF and selected industrials show risk-off shift, while insurance and food sectors have retail-driven resilience.

Actionable Takeaways for Traders

• Momentum Seekers: Double down on stocks with rising RSI but not yet overbought (e.g., ACADEMY, MCNICHOLS), using trailing stops.
• Contrarian/Catalyst Traders: Watch for bounce/reversal in FTNCOCOA and potential mean-reversion in TIP and NGXGROUP.
• Defensive/Income Portfolios: Seek high-yield stocks experiencing bullish crossovers, but have a risk plan for sudden sector rotation.
• Institutional Follower Strategy: Lean into stocks like ZENITHBANK and ACCESSCORP aligning with fund flows and block trades’ momentum.