NGX Market Wrap – Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Today, the NGX All Share Index rebounded slightly, closing up by 0.12% to settle at 145,880.77. This brings the YTD performance to an impressive 41.55%, cementing the bourse’s status as one of the more resilient global equity markets year-to-date. Turnover was robust, rising 22.84% to ₦22.62bn, despite a notable 39% drop in total volume traded (1.24bn vs previous 2.04bn). Market breadth favored the bulls (1.51x), with 53 advancers overshadowing 35 decliners, and strong pockets of momentum across insurance, small-cap, and some banking stocks.

However, trading activity revealed a marked skew towards institutional dominance by value, as they accounted for 88.34% of total trade value, despite making up only 41.91% of deals. This suggests a concentration of big-ticket flows in select blue-chips, contrasting with active (yet smaller) retail participation across the wider market.

Market Breadth & Noteworthy Trends

• Advancers/Decliners & Breadth: 53 stocks rose versus 35 that fell, yielding a healthy breadth (1.51x). Volume increased for 69 companies but dipped for 71—a nuanced indicator of rotation as investors took profits and repositioned.
• Top Gainers:
  • ELLAHLAKES (ELLAH LAKES PLC.): +10.0% to ₦16.06, driven by robust momentum (RSI: 74.65), clear overbought technicals, and a bullish MACD crossover.
  • CHAMPION (CHAMPION BREW. PLC.): +10.0% to ₦17.38, RSI at 63.70 and strong 5-day return. Underlying accumulation continues.
  • PRESTIGE (PRESTIGE ASSURANCE): +10.0%, RSI at 83.99 (deeply overbought – caution for late entrants).
  • WAPIC (WAPIC INSURANCE): +10.0%, RSI: 80.15 – at multi-year overbought levels, flagging unsustainable short-term demand.
  • ABCTRANS—A nuanced case, see contrarian signals below.
• Top Losers:
  • UNILEVER: -9.97% to ₦71.3, but RSI is extremely high (93.87), hinting at a blow-off move after a parabolic run—possible short-term exhaustion?
  • CUSTODIAN: -9.55%, RSI still elevated (75.79) despite sharp sequential drops, suggesting heavy "catch-up” selling or institutional rotation.
  • Other losers include ACADEMY PRESS (-7.78%), MAYBAKER (-7.69%), WEMABANK (-6.05%), all with midline RSI readings, indicating more room for volatility and two-sided action.
• YTD Trend Overlaps: Multiple insurance names (MANSARD, MBENEFIT, AIICO, SOVRENINS) dominate the YTD gainers' table, reflecting sustained sector-wide accumulation and speculative momentum plays. Conversely, some recent top gainers appear in overbought lists, warning of likely near-term profit-taking.

Year-To-Date Top 5 Gainers and Losers

Deeper Insights & Predictive Notes

• Turnover Surge: Despite the drop in volume, the jump in turnover suggests significant institutional transactions in large-cap names, confirmed by the trading activity breakdown (88.34% of value from institutional investors).
• Volume Rotation: Only 69 companies saw higher volume, yet several stocks posted massive surges (see Unusual Volume below), underlining targeted speculative action.
• Unusual Volume Standouts:
  • LASACO traded a staggering 1,466% above its 90-day average; price rallied 9.90%—potential accumulation or block trades.
  • JAPAULGOLD up 9.29% on 187% of average volume, and on the bullish momentum list (price above 15DMA), with high Beta (1.92)—watch for possible near-term reversal or breakout continuity.
  • AIICO, ROYALEX (both insurance) logged >130% and 154% spikes in activity, aligning with insurance sector dominance on the YTD winners’ board.
  • STERLINGNG saw a price dip (-1.94%) amidst a >400% surge in volume – indicative of supply/demand imbalance or block distribution.
• Momentum Technicals:
  • Several high-flyers feature blisteringly high RSI readings (AIICO, PRESTIGE, MBENEFIT, WAPIC: all above 80), showing frothy demand—traders should brace for volatility or profit-taking soon.
  • Bullish crossovers (Price > 15DMA): JAPAULGOLD, ABCTRANS, and more. Many are also YTD or recent gainers—a virtuous reinforcing cycle for mo-mo buyers, but risk increases with crowding.
  • Bearish crossovers despite rising market: WEMABANK, UNILEVER, UACN, OKOMUOIL—contrarian alarms, especially since they underperform with the general index still rising.
• YTD Gainers Overlap: ELLAHLAKES, CHAMPION, PRESTIGE feature prominently both today and in the YTD tables—pressure risks of "overextension.”
• Dividend Alert: Several high-yield names are not present in momentum lists—defensive investors could look at AFRIPRUD (1.27% yield, Beta: 0.64) for relative safety.

Contrarian Signals & Hidden Patterns

• UNILEVER: Dropped -9.97% today, but RSI is at a sky-high 93.9, an unusually strong reading for a name under selling pressure. This may signal either an imminent bounce or that smart money is exiting after a crowded long trade.
• ABCTRANS: Gained 10.0% with RSI dropping sharply (from 65.68 to 49.87) despite +9.09% above 15DMA. Bullish price, but rapidly deteriorating momentum—flash warning on sustainability.
• CHAMPION: Despite only modest RSI (54.4 previously), bullish MACD and robust price action, yet YTD is -9.8%. Could signal bottoming out or reversal—worth closer monitoring.
• CUSTODIAN: Strong YTD, but suddenly severe weekly/daily losses and still overbought RSI – bearish divergence.
• Some bear momentum banks: (FIDELITYBK, WEMABANK) are underperforming by price and moving average signals, despite sector peers seeing inflows; possible risk-off signaling or specific rotation within large banks.

Dividend Yield + Momentum Overlap

• AFRIPRUD: High-yield (1.27%), low-beta, but in bearish momentum (below 15DMA). Value/defensive investors must weigh yield against near-term price weakness—could be a falling knife or an opportunity on further weakness.
• CAVERTON: Offers both high yield and above-15DMA status. Early "sweet spot” for income-and-growth seekers—watch volume for signs of broadening demand.

Trading Suggestions & Cautions

• Short-term traders:
  • Insurance plays are overbought and crowded—winners (MBENEFIT, PRESTIGE, AIICO) are high-risk for sharp reversals/profit-taking. Tight stops advised.
  • JAPAULGOLD, ELLAHLAKES, CHAMPION: Remain in breakout mode. Look for parabolic move reversals or momentum confirmations via sector flows and MACD/RSI combo.
  • UNILEVER, CUSTODIAN, WEMABANK: Are in "blow-off” mode to the downside with elevated RSI. Mean reversion trades could be triggered, but volatility will likely remain high.
  • Banks (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO): Flat prices, high institutional flows—potential stealth accumulation. Consider call options or small staggered entries.
• For defensive/income investors:
  • Watch AFRIPRUD and CAVERTON for attractive entry—downside momentum may offer bargains.
• Contrarians: Scan for reversal setups in overbought gainers or oversold losers with rising RSI/MACD divergences.
• Bullish momentum names (above 15DMA): JAPAULGOLD, TIP, WAPCO, CAVERTON. Many are small/mid-caps—size positions accordingly.

Market Activity & Trade Flow Analysis

• Institutional vs Retail:
  • Trade Count: 41.9% institutional, 58.1% retail—retail remains the "liquidity provider.” However, by value, institutions dominate (88.34%), showing that large-value block trades were concentrated in fewer names.
  • Top Institutional Trades: ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, UBA, FCMB—core banking blue chips. Despite heavy block flows, prices are mostly flat, suggesting distribution or accumulation without chasing.
  • Top Retail Trades: MTNN, ACCESSCORP, UBA, GTCO, ZENITHBANK. Retail gravitated toward both "cheap” high-float banking names and tier-1 Telco (MTNN).
  • Correlation: Insurance stocks which dominated gainers/YTD lists are underrepresented among top institutionally traded by value. Institutions are likely keeping to large-caps (banks, reliable cashflows).
  • Actionable insight: If institutional flows shift toward currently speculative winners (insurance/energy small-caps), potential for sharp rallies exists; but if profit-taking sets in, downward price velocity could match recent surges.
• High Volume Spots: LASACO, JAPAULGOLD, STERLINGNG, AIICO, ROYALEX. Many also feature on the insurance breakouts/YTD gainers.