NGX Market Close Summary – Thursday, September 18, 2025

The Nigerian equities market posted a modest +0.16% gain today, as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) settled at 142,036.25, marking a resilient year-to-date return of +37.88%. However, market activity trended sharply lower: turnover plummeted by -78.99% to just ₦3.53bn with 154.13m shares trading hands (versus nearly 1 billion yesterday). Despite lackluster liquidity, breadth remained positive (1.43x) with 33 advancers versus 23 decliners. Bullish momentum and a rotation into less liquid names defined the session, supported by impressive spikes in unusual volume stocks.

Key Trends & Breadth

• Market Breadth: Healthy at 1.43x with 33 gainers and 23 losers – a sustained bullish bias, supported by an uptick in the number of stocks building on short-term 15D/50D moving average crossovers.
• Turnover Collapse: Trading value dropped -78.99% from the prior session, a possible caution flag for sustained upward momentum as conviction wanes.
• Breadth by Activity: More stocks saw a drop in traded volume today (85 lower, 54 higher), suggesting selective accumulation rather than widespread bullish sentiment.

Top Gainers & Losers – Standouts

• GUINNESS delivered the day's most impressive run, closing +10%, boasting a 23.1% 5-day return and surging +150.5% YTD – momentum is underscored by a firm MACD and price riding above both 15D and 50D moving averages.
• OMATEK and TIP stood out for notable volume spikes against price declines (-5.2%, -7.5%), signaling potentially smart money exits or forced liquidation after speculative run-ups.
• AUSTINLAZ and EUNISELL posted exceptional relative volume trades (748% and 406% > 90D avg), indicating renewed market attention to less-liquid small caps.

Implications & Notable Patterns

• Turnover Drop: Sustained positive breadth despite a -79% fall in value traded could mean short-term profit-taking or wait-and-see stance by large funds. While retail activity dominates by deal count (63%), institutional investors still control value (81% of value, ₦7.49bn vs. ₦1.73bn).
• Stocks With Unusual Volume (UV):
  • OMATEK (-5.2%) and TIP (-7.5%) trade double+ their 90-day averages, with negative price action. This could presage further weakness as supply overwhelms demand; speculative buyers should tread with caution.
  • THOMASWY (+9.8%) and EUNISELL (+9.9%): Big positive price/volume moves often indicate institutional entry or concerted accumulation—monitor for potential follow-through.
• Advancers vs. Decliners: Breadth stays positive, but the volume-weighted sentiment is neutral-to-cautious, as most price surges are on selective counters.
• Bearish Momentum Flags: Several insurance names (CONHALLPLC, SOVRENINS, PRESTIGE, LINKASSURE) are experiencing selling pressure—see below for sector breakdown.
• Bullish Momentum Names: MCNICHOLS and GUINNESS propelled by both price and technical signals (RSI rising; price breaking above the 15-day MA), confirming genuine bullish momentum, albeit on thin liquidity.

Momentum Trends: YTD Gainers, Losers & Technicals

• YTD Gainers:

  Stock	YTD %	5D %	RSI	MACD	DivY
  GUINNESS	+150.53%	+23.08%	58.88	6.01	11.52%
  EUNISELL	+135.91%	+20.28%	57.40	1.33	0.00%
  MULTIVERSE	+65.09%	+12.50%	73.29	0.79	0.85%
  CHELLARAM	+294.59%	+9.77%	63.70	0.90	1.99%
  MCNICHOLS	+141.61%	+9.58%	50.86	0.07	5.88%

• YTD Losers – rotational weakness in insurance, ETFs, and tech names:

  Stock	YTD %	5D %	RSI	DivY
  GREENWETF	-56.84%	-9.99%	44.47	0.00%
  OMATEK	-37.50%	-9.84%	46.99	0.00%
  CONHALLPLC	-34.00%	-8.64%	52.33	2.08%
  ROYAL EXCH.	-81.82%	-9.50%	49.45	7.81%
  MERISTEM VALUE ETF	+0.15%	-9.09%	50.59

• Bullish Momentum Table (Breakout Candidates):
  • MCNICHOLS (+8.74% today) and GUINEAINS boast recent closes above their 15DMA and positive RSI readings, indicating momentum play validity.
  • Most bullish momentum stocks have RSI readings below overbought (sub-70), suggesting uptrends are not overextended. No immediate RSI>70 caution flags on the top gainers list, though MULTIVERSE (RSI: 73.29, not in today's top gainer) is one to watch for overheating.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • Today's losing stocks in insurance (e.g., CONHALLPLC, SOVRENINS, PRESTIGE, LINKASSURE) all triggered closing below 15DMA and have neutral RSI (40s-50s)—this could accelerate into further downside, especially if sector-wide.
  • Banks and defensive ETFs showed signs of fatigue (ZENITHBANK -1.44%, NEWGOLD -6.88%) albeit with modest RSI levels, suggesting more "rest” than outright reversal.
• Overlaps/Hidden Gems:
  • Stocks appearing in both the "unusual volume” and "gainers” table (like EUNISELL, THOMASWY, MCNICHOLS) could offer near-term trading opportunities. Those with positive technical momentum and robust volume surges are classic short-term breakout candidates.
  • Conversely, TIP and OMATEK saw high volumes and sharp declines, representing potential overhangs – a sell-the-rally scenario.
• Dividend Opportunities: MCNICHOLS offers a healthy 5.88% yield and is currently in the bullish list—could be attractive to conservative momentum hunters.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION (RSI: 54.4, MACD Bullish, -9.8% YTD):
  • Despite a lackluster YTD performance, CHAMPION is showing a bullish MACD crossover and a positive break above the 15DMA, but without the overbought RSI. Contrarians may see this as a bottoming formation, but volume is thin and relative strength is mild – more confirmation needed.
• ZENITHBANK: Bearish breakdown below the 15DMA, but bank stocks are often the first to reverse on improved macro sentiment; institutional investors show high turnover share (20.17% see below), pointing to possible smart-money positioning.

Sector Heatmap & Flows

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Picks)

• MCNICHOLS and GUINNESS stand out for offering both above-average yields and low beta, making them potentially attractive for yield-seeking defensive investors, with the added kicker of bullish momentum.
• CONHALLPLC has a decent yield (2.08%) but is mired in a bearish technical setup and sectoral outflows—avoid for now.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK captured 20.17% of today’s institutional trade value (₦1.47bn out of market ₦7.49bn), signaling active Delta One and value fund positioning, despite a short-term technical breakdown (closed below 15DMA and price -1.44%). Watch for large block trades here as a precursor to re-rating.
• ARADEL and ACCESSCORP also appeared prominently in top institutional trades (₦998.8mn and ₦931.2mn), both trading in large volume blocks; these may serve as liquidity anchors in subsequent rebounds.

Traders' Insights & Tactical Suggestions

• Momentum Catchers: Seek follow-through opportunities in stocks combining unusual volume, positive price, and technical breakouts (e.g., EUNISELL, THOMASWY, MCNICHOLS).
• Contrarian Shorts: Speculative losers with outsized volume—TIP and OMATEK—may still have further downside; avoid catching falling knives until signs of reversal.
• Watch Insurance: Structural weaknesses persist; steer clear unless clear trend reversals or news flows appear.
• Defensive Rotation: Defensive yield stocks with low beta, such as MCNICHOLS and GUINNESS, are now outperforming and may see continued inflows as top-down risk signals escalate.
• Liquidity Caution: The dramatic slide in market turnover should be watched closely. Wait for confirmation of renewed buying before chasing new highs.

Market Activity & Trades Summary Analysis

• Retail vs. Institutional Activity: Retail investors made 63.27% of the day's trades but only accounted for 18.77% of total value. Institutions, with just 36.73% of trades, drove 81.23% of the market’s value—a classic "smart money moves silently" day, playing in block sizes and larger caps.
• Top 5 Institutional Trades: ZENITHBANK, ARADEL, MTNN, ACCESSCORP, UBA – all are financial and large-cap names, confirming the defensive posture and preference for liquid instruments among institutions during low turnover.
• Top 5 Retail Trades: MTNN, ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, GTCO – the overlap indicates retail investors continue to mirror institutional flows, especially in the core banking sector.
• Stock-Specific Flow:
  • ZENITHBANK and MTNN top both retail and institutional lists, offering liquidity and relatively lower volatility on a day of thin trading—these are likely to remain market bellwethers.
  • GTCO is prominent in retail trade but not institutional, suggesting some "hot money” chasing quick banking rally, rather than deep-pocketed buy-and-hold conviction.
• Pattern/Correlation:
  • Banks are central in both retail and institutional trades, usually a sign that the macroeconomic narrative is driving flows (FX, interest rates, defensive asset allocation).
  • Unusual volumes observed in non-banking small caps (EUNISELL, THOMASWY, OMATEK) are likely speculative and short-term driven—not yet backed by institutional conviction.

Currency Market Snap

• Naira appreciated +0.21% to 1,496/$, supporting positive flows to the banking sector.

Summary Table: 5-Day YTD Gainers/Losers

Gainers remain heavily momentum-driven, but some may be stretched (e.g., GUINNESS). Losers, especially in insurance/ETF segments, show sectoral risk-off rotation.

Final Thoughts & Strategy

• Liquidity is drying up; don't chase breakouts with poor conviction—wait for volume-backed moves, especially as the market awaits the next catalysts.
• Keep an eye on sector divergences. Insurance and small-cap tech are under pressure; Food Products and select specialty names are the short-term alpha spots.
• Use defensive yield and technical confirmation (MCNICHOLS, GUINNESS) for new risk-on positions.
• Watch "institutional clusters” on ZENITHBANK and ACCESSCORP for potential rotation signals.
• Continue to monitor for reversal signals in oversold severe losers (OMATEK nearing technical exhaustion, but not yet bouncing).
• For short-term traders: Play momentum but honor stop-losses—volatility and low volumes can create outsized intraday swings with little warning.