NGX Daily Market Summary – Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Today, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All Share Index (ASI) closed at 144,822.78, inching up by +0.12%. The index continues its impressive Year-To-Date (YTD) journey, now boasting a cumulative return of +40.53%. Despite the positive index movement, market turnover slid by -17.45% to ₦10.72B, while trading volume softened to 468.80M shares. Market breadth was narrowly positive at 1.03x, with 41 advancers to 40 decliners, signaling a highly contested session. The insurance sector came alive, propelling CORNERSTONE INSURANCE PLC (CORNERST, +9.92%) to the top as today’s best performer, while CONSOLIDATED HALLMARK INSURANCE PLC (CONHALLPLC, -9.52%) suffered the steepest fall. Both also signaled bullish momentum, supported by 15DMA breakouts.
Amid these undercurrents, remarkable activity emerged in select names, with several stocks flashing strong, and at times, contradictory signals across technical, volume, sectoral, and smart money (institutional vs retail) metrics.

• Market Breadth & Trends:
  • Advancers narrowly outpaced decliners (41 vs 40); overall market breadth at 1.03x—indicative of hesitancy or consolidation in the short run.
  • Volume rose in 71 stocks and fell in 67—volume dispersion reflects selective participation rather than broad-based exuberance.
  • Turnover’s sizable drop (-17.45%) typically forewarns a near-term volatility lull or brewing reversal risk—watch for a possible pause or even profit-taking into Wednesday’s session.
• Top Gainers:
  • CORNERSTONE INSURANCE PLC (CORNERST): +9.92% to ₦6.65. RSI at 47.58, robust 9% price move, and close above 15DMA indicate emerging bullish trend. Insurance sector standout, supported by bullish technicals and strong relative volume.
  • CHAMS PLC: +9.22%, YTD return at a stunning +120%, RSI rising to 66.25, bullish MACD, and dramatically up over the last week—momentum remains formidable (see YTD chart below).
  • VFD GROUP PLC: +9.17%, signaling appetite for financials outside main banks.
  • INTENEGINS: +8.82%; just below mid-level RSI, small cap insurance with technical breakout implications.
• Top Losers:
  • NEWGOLD ETF: -11.01%, continues its YTD slump (-11.32%), and triggered a major technical breakdown—sends retreat signal for "hard asset” fans; staggering MACD divergence flags ongoing downtrend.
  • LIVINGTRUST MORTGAGE BANK: -10.0% (RSI 69.2): An example of overbought profile breaking down abruptly, reinforcing caution post-euphoria.
  • AUSTIN LAZ & COMPANY: -9.74%, high RSI (65.2) but steeper losses—hinting at failed breakout or profit-taking after recent run-up.

YTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers

Momentum Watchlist (Bullish & Bearish Candidates)

• Hidden Insights:
  • Noticeable overlap: CHAMS PLC tops both daily and YTD gainers, and is near bullish RSI territory (66.3), MACD positive and rising, and has consistently traded above its 15DMA—momentum remains strong.
  • NEWGOLD ETF stands out as top loser both today and YTD; momentum remains decisively negative, possibly reflecting shifting macro expectations, profit taking, or exogenous catalyst.
  • Stocks with price closing above 15DMA (bullish)—all have moderate to slightly elevated RSI, suggesting further upside is possible (not yet overbought).
  • Bullish momentum (based on 15DMA/50DMA and RSI): Momentum leaders are beginning runs at sustainable, rather than "blow-off” levels. This appears conducive for swing trades but may favor scaling in over chasing.
  • Bearish momentum (closing below 15DMA): Several stocks (NEWGOLD, FTNCOCOA, TANTALIZER, etc.) have RSI readings closer to midline (not yet oversold), implying more downside may yet materialize before mean-reversion buyers emerge.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMS PLC: Despite an RSI of 66.3 (approaching overbought), price and MACD remain strongly positive, and it leads the gainers. Momentum traders may ride further, but risk of a snapback grows. Contrarian traders could start monitoring for topping signals.
• LIVINGTRUST: RSI at 69.2 (almost overbought levels) while experiencing a sudden -10% drop – a classic complacency-to-correction pattern; that can sometimes trigger further downside.
• NEWGOLD ETF: Rare combination of high RSI (54.8), huge negative MACD, and ongoing price breakdown; continued ETF selling despite technical strength is a red flag.

Sector Heatmap Comparison

Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunities

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ARADEL: Dominated institutional activity (22.46M shares, +600% vs 90D avg), representing over 52.7% of institutional value traded. Unusual institutional concentration and value—possible insider-driven or pipeline event.
• ZENITHBANK: Accounted for 20.17% of institutional value trade (₦368M+). Technicals diverged (trending down, -0.58% today), watch for support at moving averages.
• ACCESSCORP: High in both retail and institutional trade tables; neutral/flat price, suggesting "hand off” or accumulation in progress.
• ELLAHLAKES: Significant in both retail and institutional volumes. High volatility, YTD momentum, suggests continued speculative attention.

• High Dividend Yield Crosschecked with Momentum Tables:
  • MANSARD: Yield at 4.59%, high YTD and 5D gain, technicals still bullish—blend of defense and offense.
  • FTNCOCOA: High yield, but sits on bearish momentum table—dividend trap risk; wait for reversal signal before considering as defensive play.
  • Note: Many high dividend stocks (like SOVRENINS, WEMABANK) also have high beta—defensive investors should confirm risk appetite before entry.

Tuesday Focus: Top 3–5 YTD Outliers

Market Activity Insights: Institutional vs Retail Behavior

• Trade Participation:
  • Retail investors accounted for 59.7% of total trades—yet only 38.6% of volume and 9.05% of value, reinforcing that institutions exert much greater influence on volume and especially large-value trades.
  • Institutions contributed just 40.3% of trades, but dominated volume (61.4%) and value (90.95%).
• Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional):
  • ARADEL: 22.46M shares (over 600% > 90D avg), value ₦13.16B; signals institutional accumulation or a block event. Aggressive movement outpaces sectoral peers.
  • ACCESSCORP: Both institutional and retail favorite; flat price with high volume suggests positioning ahead of potential catalyst.
  • ELLAHLAKES: 27M+ institutional, YTD momentum leader—continued volatility expected.
  • DANGCEM: Cement major, steady institutional interest; safe haven or macro-driven flow.
  • ZENITHBANK: Bank mainstay, modest slip, but heavy on institutional books.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Retail):
  • STERLINGNG: Most retail trades, yet price fell (-4.2%); retail chasing weakness or panic.
  • MTNN: Heavy retail flow, but no follow-through on price; possible rotation from institutions to retail hands.
  • ACCESSCORP: Appears on both lists—tug of war evident, on watch for future breakout candidate.
  • GTCO: Similar trend, loses ground, but remains heavily traded—potential overextension by retail.
  • ELLAHLAKES: High on retail radar; volatile and speculative, caution advised unless riding trend with stops.
• Discernible Patterns:
  • Names with highest institutional volumes often appear as gainers, leaders, or volatility hotspots (ARADEL, ACCESSCORP, ELLAHLAKES).
  • Stocks deeply traded by retail (STERLINGNG, GTCO) suffered price declines, suggesting possible "late buying” or exhaustion risk.
  • Overlap in most-traded symbols between retail and institutional lists (ACCESSCORP, ELLAHLAKES) points to "hot” names where trend can accelerate quickly, but also reverse without warning.

Suggestions & Trading Cautions

• For momentum traders: Consider sticking with top relative strength names (CHAMS, ELLAHLAKES, SOVRENINS), but trail stops as some are nearing overbought territory.
• Defensive investors: Seek out high yield, low to mid beta winners (MANSARD), and beware of names where high yield is paired with negative price momentum (FTNCOCOA).
• Watch for reversals in a handful of YTD losers (esp. MCNICHOLS, NEWGOLD) with unsustainable selling and potential institutional entry on flush points.
• Unusual volume: ARADEL’s spike is institutional—possible M&A, deal, or smart money positioning; retail should be alert but not chase parabolic moves unless confirmed by news/corporate action.
• Sector overlay: Insurance displays leadership—if breadth widens, could offer early sector rotation opportunities.

Key Takeaway: The NGX remains in a broad uptrend, but beneath the surface selective leadership, technical breakouts, and institutional clustering hint at potential volatility and sector rotation. Retail exuberance is most potent in second-tier financials and insurance, while institutionally-driven value and ETF sectors may be due for a shakeup. Stay nimble, confirm technicals, and let volume lead you to the next opportunity.