NGX Daily Market Summary – Thursday, October 9, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) rose 0.33% today to close at 145,719.09, further solidifying its impressive 41.70% YTD gain. Market activity was robust, with turnover surging to ₦25.95B (+144.63% from yesterday), even as total trading volume dipped -15.93% to 325.02M shares. Market breadth remained constructive at 1.52x with 35 advancers versus 23 decliners, signaling continued bullish sentiment across the broader market. Cementing the upbeat mood, the Naira appreciated 0.11% against the Dollar.

Key Market Breadth and Sentiment Trends

• Market Breadth: With more than 1.5x as many advancers as decliners (35 vs. 23), upward momentum remains intact—though volume shrank, suggesting possible sector rotation or profit-taking by participants despite the index climb.
• Volume Trends: Noteworthy: volumes rose in 57 stocks but declined in 81—potential early warning of selective participation and possible overextension in some winners.
• Trade Profile: Institutional players remained dominant, representing 94.55% of market value and 60.91% of traded volume, compared to retail’s 5.45% and 39.09%, respectively. On trade count, however, retail investors were the bulk (62.90%).

Top Gainers & Losers: Daily Standouts

• EUNISELL notable for both high RSI (75.3, overbought) and top gainer status. Often a sign that the move may soon slow or mean-revert.
• MERVALUE & MERGROWTH ETFs both rank among top losers day and YTD, with sharply negative MACD readings, hinting at ongoing distribution in these sector baskets.

Insights from Key Indicators

• Unusual Volume:
  • DANGCEM (Dangote Cement) exploded with 20.92M shares traded (12x its 90-day avg) and ₦11B turnover, suggesting sustained institutional accumulation; price rose +1.9%.
  • NESTLE smashed its typical volume with 2.75M shares vs. just 89k average (2984% surge)—no price change, perhaps signifying large block trades or portfolio rebalancing at steady pricing.
  • LIVINGTRUST (YTD Top Loser) featured in unusual volume table—potential bottom fishing or large exit moves amid recent price weakness.
• Bullish Momentum:
  • CAVERTON, SUNUASSUR, GTCO and others crossed above their 15DMA with positive MACDs, confirming coordinated buying. (See Bullish Momentum Table).
  • Market-wide RSI readings remain strong, with several issues near or above 70 (e.g., EUNISELL).
• Bearish Momentum:
  • MERGROWTH, FTNCOCOA crossed below 15DMA and exhibit negative MACD signals, with MERGROWTH's MACD at -39.5—continuing its technical breakdown.
• Turnover Surge: The sharp uptick in turnover amid lower volumes suggests big-ticket block trades and sector rotation, with institutional investors driving activity.
• Advance/Decline: More advancers but falling volume = potential "melt up" or buying at new highs; traders should watch for reversal signals if breadth narrows further.
• ETF Weakness: Both MERVALUE and MERGROWTH ETFs feature as top losers YTD and day, a rare convergence—signals sector-wide rotation away from these baskets.

Bullish & Bearish Momentum Analysis

• CAVERTON and SUNUASSUR offer technical setups combining 15DMA crossover and positive MACD—a classic bullish scenario often favored by short-term traders.
• MERGROWTH ETF demonstrates strong bearish momentum, with MACD far below signal, confirming persistent downside.

Contrarian Signals

• EUNISELL: RSI is extremely high (75.27, overbought), yet bullish MACD and ongoing price surge. Such strong momentum often precedes short-term pullbacks or consolidation. Beware chasing at these levels.
• LIVINGTRUST: Despite heavy YTD losses (-22.15%) and appearance on the unusual volume list (7x average!), its RSI is neutral. Contrarian traders may look for a reversal but should remain cautious.
• MTNN: Huge institutional and retail flows on massive volume, yet price is flat. Neutral MACD but high RSI (~60). A "tug-of-war” -- watch for a decisive breakout.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Yield vs Beta Matrix

• Low-beta, high-yield: REGALINS and DEAPCAP stand out for defensive, income-seeking investors—offering high dividend and low market sensitivity.
• DANGSUGAR pairs above-average dividend with technical strength; could be a candidate for hybrid defensive/growth strategies.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• DANGCEM: Over 42% institutional value share and explosive volume surge—strong evidence of major fund flows. Price moved +1.9%.
• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of total institutional trade value, with moderate price increase. Institutions trade ZENITHBANK at a much higher value concentration than retail.
• MTNN: Both high institutional and retail engagement. Institutional value dominated (18.7%), pointing to strategic accumulation.

Notable Patterns & Hidden Insights

• Overlap of High Dividend & Bullish Momentum: REGALINS and DEAPCAP both offer high yields and are in the bullish table—these could see continued inflows from both momentum and yield-focused investors.
• ETF Sectors: MERGROWTH and MERVALUE ETFs are persistent laggards both YTD and on the day. Caution for ETF/basket investors; consider stock picking where possible.
• LIVINGTRUST’s appearance among top YTD losers and unusual volume may signal either a washout bottom or further pressure. Watch for confirmation on reversal/turnaround.

YTD Top Gainers and Losers Table

Trade Activity Insights

• Retail vs Institutional: Despite institutions dominating by value and volume, retail traders accounted for nearly two-thirds of trade count—suggesting retail is more active in smaller cap/retail-accessible names, whereas institutions drive price/volume in blue chips.
• Top 5 Institutional Names: DANGCEM, MTNN, ARADEL, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK
• Top 5 Retail Names: MTNN, UBA, STERLINGNG, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK
• Pattern: Key stocks like MTNN, ACCESSCORP and ZENITHBANK appear atop both lists, but institutionals overwhelmingly dominate DANGCEM, suggesting price action in this bellwether is especially sensitive to big-ticket flows.
• Strategic Insight: Watch for retail vs institutional divergence or convergence in these names for clues to possible inflection points or trend continuations.

Practical Suggestions for Traders

• Momentum hunters: Focus on stocks with bullish 15DMA crossovers and high volume—e.g., CAVERTON, SUNUASSUR, and GTCO.
• Defensive income seekers: Screen for high-yield, low-beta names in uptrend—e.g., REGALINS, DEAPCAP.
• Contrarian setups: Beware of high RSI & overbought readings in runners like EUNISELL (possible for mean-reversion).
• ETF caution: Persistent weakness in market ETFs (MERGROWTH/MERVALUE) encourages selective stock-picking over broad baskets for now.
• Tape-watchers: Large turnover spikes and block trades (DANGCEM, NESTLE) often set up for trend continuations or sharp re-pricings—monitor for breakout or reversal signals after such volume events.