NGX Market Summary – Monday, July 14, 2025

The Nigerian equities market kicked off the week on a positive note, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) climbing 0.43% to 126,151.04, notching a robust 22.78% YTD return. However, beneath the index’s mild ascent, activity painted a far more subdued picture: turnover plummeted by -83.52% to just NGN 4.64 billion, and volumes slid to 273.57 million (from 1.34 billion previously). While the broader market was marginally bullish (market breadth 1.12x, advancers outpacing decliners 46 to 41), institutional and retail dynamics diverged sharply. Volume traded rose for 65 stocks but declined for 74, suggesting a shift from speculative excess toward more selective accumulation. The currency market was firmer, with the Naira appreciating by 0.20% to 1,530/USD.

Key Takeaways and Trends

• Market Breadth & Participation:
  - Advancers (46) vs. Decliners (41) yields a slightly bullish breadth (1.12x), yet the drop-off in turnover and volume is notable. This could signal cautious re-entry by institutions after prior exuberance.
  - Volumes were up for 65 stocks but down for 74 – breadth looks better on price than on conviction.
• Top Gainers (%):
  • GREENWETF (+10.00%): Unusual top gainer among ETFs, but RSI (19.54) is deeply oversold despite today’s bounce and huge negative YTD (-62.92% see YTD Losers table). Caution: this looks technical and not fundamental.
  • ABBEYBDS (+9.99%): Trades with elevated RSI (71.89) and a tiny PE, suggesting strong momentum but nearing overbought levels. Rapid short-term run-up may attract profit-taking.
  • IKEJAHOTEL (+9.95%): Surging with a very high RSI of 86.27, paired with bullish MACD. A brief overbought condition—watch for mean reversion.
  • MCNICHOLS (+9.92%): Major YTD gainer (168.32%, see table below). RSI is very high at 78.74; MACD is bullish; uptrend intact, but technical correction risk is elevated.
• Top Losers (%):
  • CUTIX (-10.00%): RSI 76.88; remains overbought despite sharp drop—possible correction in prior overextended rally.
  • RTBRISCOE (-10.00%): RSI 80.95; high volatility continues, with repeated spikes and dumps.
  • TANTALIZER (-10.00%): Still has elevated RSI (68.25), suggesting more room to fall if sellers persist.
  • CAVERTON (-10.00%): High RSI (78.16); see above on volatility—likely corrective move.
  • NEIMETH (-9.95%, YTD 228.29%): Mixed signals—a negative daily and 5-day change despite ultra-strong YTD. Directional conviction is lacking; possible exhaustion.
• Unusual Volume Stocks:
  • ACCESSCORP (Volume: 138M, +157.62% over 90d avg): Flat daily move (+0.4%), but heavy institutional trading (see Market Trades section below).
  • AIICO (504.96% over 90d avg): Posted +1.32% on the day; indicative of renewed institutional interest or block trading.
  • JAIZBANK (739.43% over 90d avg): +0.84%; also saw intense block activity, suggesting possible accumulation.
  • JAPAULGOLD & UNIVINSURE: Both saw >200% jump in volume but closed lower (-9.85% and -9.20% respectively), hinting at distribution or large-scale profit-taking.
• YTD Top Gainers:
  • MCNICHOLS (+168.32%), OMATEK (+100.0%), THOMASWY (+104.74%), REDSTAREX (+225.40%) all show RSIs above 78 (overbought); technical correction likely soon.
  • NEIMETH - curious case: YTD +228.29%, but among day’s top losers (-9.95%), signaling a sharp reversal.
• YTD Top Losers:
  • GREENWETF (-62.92% YTD) is today’s top gainer (+10.00%) but remains technically weak (RSI 19.54), reinforcing this as a technical bounce.
  • LEGENDINT, INTBREW, GUINEAINS, LINKASSURE, TANTALIZER, LIVESTOCK all continue weak showing, and many have bearsih 15DMA/50DMA crossovers and RSI trending lower.
• Bullish Momentum (Closing Price Crossed Above 15DMA):
  • STANBIC (+7.08%), BUACEMENT (+5.05%), SUNUASSUR (+4.20%): All show strong momentum despite market-wide volume drop. Watch for continued institutional rotation into defensive/large-cap names.
• Bearish Momentum (Closing Price Crossed Below 15DMA):
  • LINKASSURE, INTBREW, GUINEAINS, CORNERST, LIVESTOCK all show negative momentum; each is also present in the YTD losers table, confirming a sector-wide cooling in Insurance and select Consumer Goods.
• Turnover Implications:
  A sharp drop in turnover (value -83.52%) and a 5x lower market volume signals traders taking a wait-and-see approach. Accumulation is selective. Opportunities for breakout traders will hinge on large volumes returning to leading gainers and unusual volume stocks.
• Institutions vs. Retail:
  • Institutions drove 63.09% of total market volume and 87.96% of total market value (despite representing just 42.34% of deals), focusing heavily on ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO, FIRSTHOLDCO—blue chip banking/core financials—suggesting sector rotation or defensive allocation.
  • Retail was more dispersed, favoring GTCO, ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK, and FTNCOCOA (see below for patterns).

Contrarian Signals

• GREENWETF: Today's top gainer (+10%), but still among the worst YTD losers (-62.9%) and has an extremely low RSI (19.5).
  Takeaway: This is more likely a ‘dead cat bounce’ than a turnaround; not confirmed by technicals.
• CHAMPION (YTD 258.27%): RSI only 54.4 and recent decline of -8.4%; MACD is bullish. Looks like a pause (consolidation) in a longer-term uptrend—watch for re-accumulation by buyers.
• NEIMETH: Huge YTD run +228.29%, but top daily loser (-9.95%). Signals exhaustion—could be the start of a deeper pullback.

Sector Heatmap

Sparklines/crossovers: Many blue-chip bank stocks are showing 15DMA crossovers above 50DMA (bullish), with ACCESSCORP and UBA leading the charge.

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunities

Note: Dividend payers are not heavily represented in today's bullish/bearish short-term signals. However, stocks like AFRIPRUD (high yield, low beta) offer a classic defensive hedge.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Accounted for 20.17% of institutional trade value. This, along with high activity in ACCESSCORP and UBA, suggests institutional sector rotation within top banks.
• ACCESSCORP: Appears in both institutional and retail top traded lists; with heavy volume and rising price, watch for further accumulation.

YTD Top Gainers & Losers (as of July 14, 2025)

Note: Multiple YTD gainers have RSI above 70 and are susceptible to near-term profit-taking. GREENWETF is a rare case: today's top gainer but a massive YTD loser—technical, not trend reversal.

Market Activity / Trades Summary Insights

• Daily Institutional vs Retail Breakdown:
  • Institutional: 63.09% of total volume, 87.96% of trade value but just 42.34% of deals — focusing on blue-chips, indicating high-conviction, block-style trading.
  • Retail: 57.66% of trade count, 36.91% of volume, 12.04% of trade value — broad participation but lower ticket size.
• Institutional Top 5 (by value): ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO, FIRSTHOLDCO – all in the banking sector and YTD leaders, highlighting sector rotation or defensive accumulation of high liquidity blue-chips.
• Retail Top 5: GTCO, ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK, FTNCOCOA – overlap with institutional names, but FTNCOCOA appears only in retail; high-volatility favorite for smaller traders.
• Pattern: Best-performing/YTD rising stocks (ACCESSCORP, UBA) are seeing both retail and institutional flows—a strong confirmation for their trend.

Traders’ Key Suggestions & Opportunities

• Consider locking in partial profits on stocks with RSIs above 80 (MCNICHOLS, OMATEK, IKEJAHOTEL, REDSTAREX), especially after rapid rallies.
• Bullish crossovers (e.g., STANBIC, BUACEMENT, SUNUASSUR): Watch for follow-through; use dips to accumulate or trail stops higher.
• Contrarian bounce: Tight stops for GREENWETF; today's pop isn’t trend-reversing—wait for confirmation.
• Institutional/retail overlap: Stay with ACCESSCORP, UBA for further momentum; both have confirmed support across investor classes.
• Caution: In Insurance & Consumer Goods, price under 15DMA & declining RSI signals ongoing risk-off; trims, hedges, or avoidance are recommended.
• Yield-hunting? Consider AFRIPRUD if volatility persists; not a short-term momentum play, but solid for portfolios seeking income + low beta.
• Volume spikes in AIICO, JAIZBANK, and ACCESSCORP should be watched for follow-through buying/selling in the coming sessions.

Last Week’s Recap

The previous week ended with the All Share Index consolidating after a strong run, as investor enthusiasm moderated. Multiple blue-chip banks (ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK) continued to attract both institutional and retail inflows, pushing their momentum further. Select high-flying industrials and insurance names rotated into profit-taking, while consumer and insurance sectors gradually trended downwards, culminating in today’s more cautious, selective trading action.

Summary

• ASI modestly higher amid sharply lower turnover (down -83.52%) — signals trader caution.
• Bullish: Top banks, building materials, selected financials (esp. under institutional accumulation).
• Bearish: Insurance & consumer goods, especially those with RSI below 30 or declining under 15DMA (LINKASSURE, GUINEAINS, LIVESTOCK).
• Opportunities: Trade liquid momentum favorites with stop-loss discipline; seek defensive yield in high-dividend, low-beta names where risk appetite wanes.
• Contrarian Signals: Don't chase technical bounces in structurally weak names; let volume and momentum confirm the trend.
• Stay nimble: Rapid winners are now overbought, and selective profit-taking is prudent. Keep eyes on institutional flows for sector leadership clues.