NGX Daily Market Summary – Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Today's session delivered a modest +0.29% uptick for the NGX All Share Index (ASI), closing at 139,394.75. Year-to-date returns now sit at an impressive +35.49%. Despite the green close, overall market turnover dipped significantly by -34.78% to ₦10.58B, with trading volume sharply lower as well. Market breadth was firmly positive at 1.61x (37 advancers vs. 23 decliners), though advancing volume was outpaced by declines across most listed stocks. Today's trading was marked by dynamic moves in insurance and financials, huge institutional participation in a handful of financial stocks, and several eye-catching spikes in trading volumes. Let's dig into the trends, winners, losers, and undercurrents shaping today's tape.

Market Breadth & Trading Trends

• Market Breadth: Solidly positive with 37 advancers and 23 decliners, translating to a breadth ratio of 1.61x.
• Volume Trends: Volumes up in 54 companies, down in 88, despite overall lighter trading. Unusual volume flags on names like FCMB (+230% vs. 90D avg), MECURE (+412%), and CHELLARAM (+813%).
• Institutional vs. Retail Activity: Institutional trades accounted for 69.91% of volume and a commanding 85.86% of trade value, indicating strong "big money” involvement in select financials. Retail participation high in count (63%), but contributed less than 15% of trade value.

Daily Top Gainers & Losers

• REGALINS led the session with a seamless move up (+10.00%), moderate RSI (near-neutral) and a mild positive MACD suggest a steady, but not overblown, uptrend.
• MECURE posted the largest decline (-9.92%), but with a near-neutral RSI (53.9) and positive MACD, the selloff may be more about rotation or a reaction to previous overextension than technical breakdown.
• Unusual Volume: FCMB, CUSTODIAN, MECURE, and CHELLARAM all traded >200% of their average volume—potentially signaling institutional repositioning or speculative churn.

5-Day and YTD Leaders & Laggards

• Momentum overlap: REGALINS, ROYALEX, and ETRANZACT feature on both the daily and year-to-date top gainers – these are names enjoying sustained bullish momentum, supported by healthy RSI (mid 50s) and price above both 15D/50D moving averages.
• Contrarian signals: MERGROWTH – sharp daily drop (-10%), negative MACD, but YTD still +5.17% – remains volatile with conflicting signals.

Bullish & Bearish Momentum Signals (Technical Pattern Screener)

• Bullish cross above 15DMA: REGALINS, DEAPCAP, ROYALEX, UPL, MCNICHOLS, GUINEAINS, LASACO, AIICO, among others—most within insurance/financials. Notably, REGALINS, ROYALEX, AIICO, and LASACO all appear in 5D/YTD momentum lists, emphasizing sector strength.
• Bearish cross below 15DMA: Limited to a few names (HONYFLOUR, FGSUK2033S6—mostly bonds). The broader market uptrend means these underperformers could offer contrarian opportunities, but require further scrutiny.
• RSI extremes: No daily stocks flagged with RSI >70 (overbought) or <30 (oversold), suggesting current moves are sustainable, not extended.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION (YTD +338.32%): RSI of 54.4 (neutral), MACD showing preliminary bullish reversal despite a -9.8% YTD hit. This balance of technicals with a major run may hint at an impending recovery or short-term technical bounce.
• MECURE (YTD +0.56%, Today -9.92%): RSI is steady at 53.9, MACD positive, yet price tumble—possible anomaly ripe for short-term rebound.
• MERGROWTH: continued volatility; large negative MACD offset by moderate RSI and a positive YTD return, underscoring market uncertainty in this ETF.

Sector Heatmap & Institutional/Retail Activity

• Insurance and financials are the dominant theme, both technically and from a flows perspective.

Dividend–Beta Matrix (Defensive Stock Screen)

• Observation: Insurance sector stalwarts like REGALINS and AIICO offer solid yields with sub-market Beta, providing attractive defensive opportunities that also happen to sit in the bullish technical tables—an unusual and favorable combination for income-focused investors.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional trade value share (₦556M) today; strong signal of continued big-money interest. Top five institutional trades centered on financials (ZENITHBANK, GTCO, UBA) plus large insurers, matching retail action in names like ACCESSCORP. Watch for sector-wide "herding” effects.

Additional Market Activity Analysis

• Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional): FIRSTHOLDCO, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO—all financial names. Correlation: these are sector leaders, often with high liquidity and institutional focus, and several are present in both bullish and volume surge tables.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Retail): MTNN, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, UBA—again, a strong echo of institutional focus, with minor skew toward the market’s largest cap (MTNN).
• Retail activity is high (63% of trade count), but dwarfed in value by institutional flows (85.9% by value). Retail investors are strongly following institutional flows, especially in financials, suggesting a "trend following” environment. Caution: if the big money pivots or takes profits, retail flows may get trapped.

Key Hidden Insights & Subtle Patterns

• Bullish pressure in insurance names coincides with high dividend yields and moderate betas—an ideal "sweet spot” for risk-adjusted returns.
• Overlaps: REGALINS, ROYALEX, AIICO, and LASACO are present in the YTD Gainers, daily gainers, and bullish cross tables. These are top conviction momentum plays, especially with supporting RSI/MACD patterns and above-average volumes.
• Most bearish stocks (by technicals) are bonds/ETFs, not equities—suggesting rotation out of fixed income and into NSX equities, especially financials.
• Volume spikes (FCMB, MECURE, CHELLARAM) are not mirrored with extreme technicals (no overbought/oversold RSI), pointing to accumulation/distribution by larger players rather than emotional retail frenzies.
• High-yield stocks in bullish tables: REGALINS (6.5%), AIICO (4.1%), LASACO (4.1%)—suggests strong total return potential combining capital appreciation and yield.

Trader Takeaways & Cautions

• Focus on insurance and financials for momentum and yield, but look to lock in partial gains as RSI inches closer to overbought levels in coming sessions.
• Keep eyes on sudden volume spikes—use as early indicators that "big money” is positioning ahead of news or trend reversals.
• Monitor bond ETFs for contrarian value: significant YTD underperformance and recent selling suggests these may soon offer defensive entry points if equity momentum stalls.
• Retail flows are chasing institutional favorites; don’t overpay or hold laggards if institutional sentiment shifts.
• Contrarian opportunities in names like CHAMPION and MECURE—where technicals signal stabilization despite price dips—may present short-term bounce trades for nimble traders.

Summary: Today’s market offers a strong blend of risk-on momentum (insurance/financials), defensive yield, and institutional herding. Stay nimble, watch for mean reversion in overextended bond ETFs, and use unusual volume moves as "smoke signals” for coming volatility. Monitor key insurance names for potential overbought pullbacks, but ride the wave as the uptrend remains well supported by both technicals and flows.