NGX Market Pulse – Monday, September 15, 2025

The Nigerian equities market kicked off the week with a +0.79% rise on the All Share Index (ASI), reaching 140,545.69. Year-to-date (YTD) returns are now an impressive +37.29%. Turnover was particularly striking, surging +226.9% to ₦23.09 billion, with trading volume up to 536.60M shares. Market breadth leaned positive (1.16x), with 36 advancers outpacing 31 decliners. Retail investors drove 63% of trade counts but institutional investors dominated volume (60%) and accounted for 92% of trade value. Today's leaders—MERVALUE (+10%) and ETRANZACT (+9.7%)—highlight the rising interest in ETFs and fintech, respectively. Meanwhile, profit-taking was evident on recent winners (LIVINGTRUST, MCNICHOLS, UACN). Notably, several top gainers and volumes suggest persistent risk appetite for mid- and small-cap names.

• Market Breadth: Advancers (36) outnumbered decliners (31) for a breadth of 1.16x—a subtle but resilient bullish undertone.
• Volume Surge: +34.4% daily volume jump (to 536.60M) signals increased investor participation, especially in ETF and insurance names.
• Volume up for 85 stocks, down for 54—underlining a broad-base market rally.

Top 5 Gainers:

• MERVALUE (ETF): +10.00% to ₦220.00 – ETF demand surges with steady technicals (RSI: 51.3).
• LIVINGTRUST: +9.96% to ₦5.08 – Rebound but high volatility, yet still up YTD. RSI stable.
• ETRANZACT: +9.70% to ₦16.40 – Standout YTD outperformer (+152% YTD), continued price chase as RSI rises (62.7).
• REGALINS: +9.64% to ₦1.82 – Insurance play with volume spike and growing momentum (RSI: 58.4).
• NNFM: +8.62% to ₦93.90 – Solid breakout above moving averages, defensive food sector tilt.

Top 5 Losers:

• MCNICHOLS: -9.90% to ₦3.55 – Sharp fall; loss of bullish momentum, with RSI still above 50 (no oversold signal yet).
• HONYFLOUR: -9.13% to ₦20.90 – Downtrend accelerates; breached 15DMA; caution warranted.
• UACN: -8.01% to ₦67.15 – Plagued by heavy sell-off (vol >17x average) and negative momentum—they are also a YTD laggard.
• OMATEK: -7.58% to ₦1.22 – Small cap vulnerability, barely holding 15DMA.
• CHAMPION: -6.00% to ₦15.98 – Despite positive MACD and RSI above 50, the price downtrend persists; classic mixed-signal story.

Key Analyst Insights

• Turnover Surge: The +227% leap in turnover is a bullish sign; increased institutional flows (91.8% of value) suggest smart money re-engagement in selected large caps and sector ETFs.
• Advance/Decline Pattern: Advancers buoyed by mid/small caps, but caution: many top gainers also appear as high-volume or recently volatile, hinting at speculative flows.
• Unusual Volume Actions:
  • GEREGU: Traded 128x its average volume—no daily price change (flat), but major institutional rebalancing likely (42.7% of their top-5 trade value).
  • UACN: 18x normal volume paired with price drop (-8.01%), classic sign of capitulation or fund rotation out of the stock.
  • REGALINS, LASACO, and NSLTECH (insurance/fintech/tech): >2x volume, all show price moves in line with volume, especially REGALINS (+9.64%).
• Bullish Momentum Standouts:
  • MERVALUE, NNFM, UNILEVER, REGALINS, AFRIPRUD, VITAFOAM all broke above 15DMA, confirming near-term bullishness. None are overbought (RSI all under 70), so further upside possible without technical exhaustion.
  • REGALINS and NNFM both made 2 appearances today: top gainers + unusual volume/momentum signals.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • MCNICHOLS and HONYFLOUR—sharp daily drops combined with breaches below 15DMA; neither shows RSI below 30 (so not yet technically oversold), but their negative volume and momentum profiles merit caution.
    UACN—on both YTD and daily loser tables, with volume signals and moving average breaches. Serial underperformer.
• Hidden Trends:
  • Some high dividend yielding insurers (REGALINS and LASACO) are emerging in bullish and high volume categories, signaling a rotation into "safer” equities in uncertain macro conditions.
  • ETRANZACT combines top gainer table, bullish momentum (above 15/50DMA), and high RSI (but not overbought)—a momentum trade with runway.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION—Despite a recent decline (-6.0% today, -9.8% YTD), the RSI is at 52.6 (neutral), and the MACD is in 'bullish crossover' mode. Mixed signals: short-term technicals say sell, but momentum indicators hint at a possible bounce.
• MCNICHOLS—Sharp sell-off today (-9.9% and near the 5-day lowest), but RSI above 50 and positive MACD histogram. May see technical relief or sharp bounce if selling exhausts.

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunities

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% (₦1.05bn) of all institutional trade value—a clear sign of institutional confidence or defensive parking.
• GEREGU: Heavy institutional turnover (₦10.3bn) but no price movement, suggesting portfolio rebalancing or cross deals.
• ACCESSCORP & GTCO: Show up in both institutional and retail top-5 most traded stocks; liquidity magnets.

High Dividend Momentum Commentary

• REGALINS (Dividend: 6.52%) and VITAFOAM (7.03%) are not only showing bullish technicals but also offer attractive yields, bolstering the case for income-focused investors seeking growth.
• AFRIPRUD (Dividend: 1.27%) also appears in bullish tables, combining stability and income with technical momentum.

Trader Suggestions

• Momentum Trade: Consider ETRANZACT, REGALINS, NNFM, or MERVALUE for trend-following strategies given their technical breakouts and/or unusual volumes.
• Be Cautious: On UACN, MCNICHOLS, HONYFLOUR—each has negative price/volume momentum and institutional exits.
• Dividend + Defense: Build positions in high-yield, low-beta names (e.g., REGALINS, VITAFOAM, AFRIPRUD)—especially for portfolios seeking to weather volatility.
• Watch for Reversals: Mixed technicals in names like CHAMPION or MCNICHOLS mean short-term bounces possible; tight stops recommended.
• Institutional Magnetism: Track persistent flows into ZENITHBANK and GEREGU for clues on sector rotation and defensive stances.

Top Year-To-Date Gainers and Losers

Last Week's Recap

The previous week saw a tug-of-war between value-hunting in defensive and dividend-rich names and profit booking in recent high-flyers. Mid/Small caps (notably ETRANZACT and REGALINS) attracted follow-on buying, while some large caps attracted institutional support (ZENITHBANK). Insurance and fintech themes are carrying momentum over, while diversified industry names such as UACN and MCNICHOLS show clear outflows and negative technicals.

Market Activity & Trades Breakdown

• Trade Execution: Retail investors accounted for 63% of trades, but institutional investors provided 60% of the volume and a commanding 92% of trade value—underscoring institutional price-setting power, especially in large caps (ZENITHBANK, GEREGU, GTCO).
• Institutional Top 5 Trades:
  • ZENITHBANK (4.35% of institutional trade value)
  • GEREGU (42.7%)—block trade & index-watching
  • ACCESSCORP, GTCO, ARADEL
  • Banking sector dominates, signaling sector confidence
• Retail Top 5 Trades:
  • MTNN: largest trade count (Telecoms—steady, flat trading)
  • ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO – High liquidity bank stocks are retail favorites
• Correlation Insights:
  • ACCESSCORP and GTCO appear in Top 3 for both retail and institutional—these are the true liquidity hubs and should be on every active trader's radar for minimal slippage.
  • Institutional clustering (ZENITHBANK, GEREGU) could be a signal to watch for breakout moves or large block-trade-driven re-ratings.

Summary & Tactical Plays

• Momentum names with discipline: ETRANZACT (Fintech, bullish signals, high RSI but room to run), REGALINS (Insurance, income + momentum + unusual volume), MERVALUE (ETF play, robust institutional appeal).
• Defensive yield with upside: VITAFOAM, AFRIPRUD, REGALINS.
• Bearish/mean reversion: UACN, MCNICHOLS—short-term traders can look for support/fade-to-bounce setups.
• Watch for institutional magnet names—if block trades persist, expect follow-on momentum—use tight stops due to high volatility.