NGX Daily Market Summary - Thursday, April 24, 2025

The Nigerian equities market snapped back with a +0.75% rise in the ASI, closing at 105,283.67. Despite this uptick, underlying activity was sharply lower: trading volume more than halved (-58% vs previous day), and turnover slumped by -45.4% to ₦9.69B. Breadth was robust (advance-decline ratio at 3.07x), underpinned by 46 advancers and just 15 decliners, indicating broad-based positive sentiment even as liquidity dried up. Notably, the ETF NEWGOLD surged 19.05%, while blue-chip NESTLE tumbled 10.00%. Below the surface, institutional flows remained highly concentrated in a few symbols, and high-momentum plays appeared in key sectors like building materials and consumer goods. However, some defensive, dividend-yielding stocks started to show fatigue, signaling the need for tactical adjustments in positioning.

Significant Trends in Market Breadth

• Breadth strong at 3.07x advancers to decliners, with 46 stocks rising and only 15 falling – this is typically a bullish market undercurrent even as ASI’s YTD return remains a modest 2.80%.
• Volume trends mixed: 64 names saw increased volume, but overall market volume shrank, suggesting action was clustered in select high-interest names (WAPCO, VFDGROUP, UNILEVER, NASCON, MTNN).
• Market liquidity drain: Aggregate turnover was down -45.4%, highlighting the risk of false breakouts in low-volume rallies.

Top Gainers and Losers

Key Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Drop: The -45% drop in turnover (₦9.7B vs ₦17.8B prev.) alongside a market-wide advance signals the day’s gains could be fragile. This environment increases the risk of sharp reversals on any negative catalyst.
• Advance/Decline: With 46 advancers outnumbering 15 decliners, breadth remains bullish, but caution is advised given the declining liquidity – less money is chasing more winners.
• Unusual Volume: Five tickers had volume at least double the 90-day average, with WAPCO posting +328% volume and +10% price jump (in both institutional and retail top trades) – a signal of conviction behind the move. VFDGROUP's wild volatility and +8.19% rise (yet a YTD loss of -58.3%) mark it as a candidate for short covering or speculative repositioning.
• Bullish Momentum Standouts:
  • NEWGOLD, CADBURY, ETERNA, IKEJAHOTEL each closed above their 15D MAs and posted sizable gains, suggesting the rally may extend, but watch for profit-taking as RSIs approach mid-range.
  • VITAFOAM: Price now above both 15D/50D MAs; strong uptrend (YTD +70.4%), RSI moderate at ~46—momentum potential intact, with a solid 7.03% dividend yield, offering a rare blend of growth and income.
• Bearish Momentum Names:
  • UBA and GUINEAINS crossed below their 15D MAs – UBA’s RSI dropping to 50 reflects growing caution among banks, while GUINEAINS’s selloff suggests sector fatigue. However, both face key support levels (watch for turnarounds if RSI dips further).
  • Both stocks are top picks for cautious monitoring: reversal traders may hunt entries if oversold conditions arise.
• YTD Trends:
  • NASCON (+60.8% YTD), INTBREW (+27.3% YTD, recent RSI 81.8, i.e. overbought), and VITAFOAM (+70.4% YTD) are still clear trend leaders with strong momentum, though INTBREW is running hot and due for a near-term pause.
  • On the flip side, VFDGROUP (-58.3% YTD, massive rebound today but erratic chart), JOHNHOLT (-19.1% YTD), HMCALL (-3.5%), and MRS (-27.7%) epitomize persistent underperformance. Particularly, JOHNHOLT with RSI 13.4 is deeply oversold and merits contrarian interest.

Contrarian Signals

• NESTLE: Fell -10%, but RSI at 54 (not oversold), and still above its 50DMA; might tempt bottom-fishers, but bears remain in control in the short term.
• CADBURY: Rebounded with +10% and crossed key averages, but RSI still low—bulls should watch for confirmation of momentum.
• JOHNHOLT: Deeply oversold at RSI 13.4 and -19.1% YTD; typically ripe for a technical bounce, though poor fundamentals could extend the slide.
• VFDGROUP: Despite wild volume and price pops, YTD is -58%, and momentum remains volatile; this is a classic high-risk, "get out while you can” situation for traders.
• INTBREW: RSI above 80, strong recent runup, but beware mean reversion risk.

Sector Heatmaps (Top Movers)

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunities)

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional trades made up 20.17% of all trade value, with significant volumes but price just +0.89%. This highlights continued institutional "parking” in blue-chip banks.
• WAPCO: Dominant both in institutional and retail flows, paired with a price breakout and high volume. Institutionals may continue to rotate here for relative strength.
• ACCESSCORP & FIDELITYBK: Both remain top institutional darlings, combining upward technical momentum and value-trade concentration. Watch if rising institutional activity pushes these further.

High Dividend Stocks in Momentum Tables

• VITAFOAM (7.03% yield): Both high dividend and in bullish momentum table. Offers a compelling low-beta, defensive growth profile, especially important with market liquidity falling.
• FIDELITYBK (5.48% yield): While not the highest yield, it features in both institutional flows and positive momentum lists—combining yield with technical strength.
• REGALINS (6.5%): Among top YTD gainers, stable risk profile but not in bullish momentum yet; still one to watch for upturn.

Trading Suggestions / Opportunities

• Momentum Seekers: Focus on stocks breaking above the 15DMA with strong RSI (avoid those already in the "overbought” 80+ zone). WAPCO, VITAFOAM, FIDELITYBK stand out for persistent upside potential with supporting volumes.
• Contrarians: Deeply oversold laggards like JOHNHOLT, HMCALL could rebound technically. Risk-tolerant traders may look for reversal confirmation as RSI recovers from extreme lows.
• Yield Hunters: VITAFOAM, FIDELITYBK, and REGALINS offer solid dividends with either defensive or improving momentum. Diversify across low-beta income payers.
• Caution: Market-wide liquidity is low despite positive breadth. Be wary of false breakouts and high volatility in speculative tickers like VFDGROUP and INTBREW.
• Institutional Flows: Follow the money—ACCESSCORP and FIDELITYBK have strong institutional positioning and likely continued demand.

Year-To-Date (YTD) Top 5 Gainers and Losers

Market Activity / Trades Summaries & Retail vs Institutional Patterns

• Retail Investors: Accounted for 86.2% of total trade count but only 11.5% of value, showing they remain price takers and mostly in illiquid small caps.
• Institutional Investors: Just 13.8% of trade count, but an outsized 88.5% of value, confirming their dominance in block trades and impact on market direction.
• Top 5 Institutional Trades:
  • ACCESSCORP (13.5% of inst’l volume) – consistent large inflow, uptrend supported by institutions.
  • FIDELITYBK (11.7%) – momentum aligning with institutional buying.
  • ZENITHBANK, WAPCO, GTCO – blue chips preferred in volatile sessions; subject to program trading.
• Top 5 Retail Trades:
  • ACCESSCORP leads again, but retail accounts for much less of the daily volume; spillover effect from institutional activity draws in retail.
  • GTCO, VFDGROUP, ZENITHBANK, and UBA: Retailers mainly chase momentum or "safe” banking names, but risk being late to the move.
• Hidden Insights: Stocks with outsized institutional action (especially when both retail and institutional are active, as in ACCESSCORP, WAPCO, GTCO) tend to lead in both price action and news flow the following day. Look for repeat leaders from this list for short-term swing trades.

Summary Tactics for Traders

• Short-term traders: Focus on momentum breakouts like WAPCO, VITAFOAM, and FIDELITYBK.
• Reversal seekers: Scan for bottoming action in deeply oversold names—JOHNHOLT or TRIPPLEG.
• Yield seekers: Layer into high yield, low-beta gainers with intact uptrends (VITAFOAM, FIDELITYBK).
• If the market remains thin on volume, take partial profits on sharp upside moves—especially in stocks where price gains are not matched by rising volume.

Final word: The day’s strong breadth is encouraging, but falling turnover warns not all is well beneath the surface. Lean towards stocks with clear momentum (15DMA crossover, strong volume) and those with institutional backing, but be nimble—especially in ongoing low-liquidity conditions.

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