NGX Daily Market Summary — Monday, June 23, 2025

The Nigerian equities market started the week on a positive note, with the NGX All Share Index up by 0.37% to close at 118,138.22 and solidifying its impressive 14.92% YTD return. Total market volume climbed slightly to 628.7M shares (from 601.8M), but market turnover dipped 16.15% to ₦19.9bn in the face of a robust 1.3x market breadth (43 advancers vs 33 decliners). Standout gainers like BETAGLAS, PRESCO, and NEIMETH led the rally, while CHAMPION and JBERGER suffered heavy losses. Notably, unusual trading volumes were seen in FTNCOCOA, NASCON, and NB, hinting at heightened market interest and possible trend changes.

Key Trends & Breadth

• Market Breadth: A bullish slant, as advancers outweighed decliners (43 to 33). However, volume was up for 68 stocks but down for 71 – suggesting selective buying and some sector rotation rather than a broad-based rally.
• Turnover Drop: Despite more shares changing hands, the 16.15% decrease in turnover points to flows into less expensive or small-cap names. This could signal rising risk appetite, or a temporary shift as institutions await greater clarity.
• Unusual Volumes: FTNCOCOA (+738% volatility spike), NASCON (+407%), NB (+234%), CUSTODIAN (+211%), and FIDELITYBK (+114%) all traded volumes much higher than their 90-day averages. These may be signalling accumulation/distribution or upcoming fundamental catalysts.

Top Gainers & Losers

Analysis, Patterns & Opportunities

• Momentum Watch:
  • Bullish Flags:
    • Stocks triggering bullish momentum (crossed above 15DMA) include CWG, FIRSTHOLDCO, ETERNA, NEWGOLD, FCMB, NB. Notably, FCMB’s 5.6% dividend yield may attract yield-starved investors.
    • BETAGLAS, PRESCO, NASCON, and GTCO: All have extremely high RSI readings (>80), suggesting a strong trend but also potential for near-term pullback or profit-taking.
  • Bearish Flags:
    • UBA, DANGCEM, JAIZBANK, FIDELITYBK, JBERGER are among stocks now crossing below 15DMA, implying rising seller control in these names, despite some (e.g. FIDELITYBK) reporting high institutional trade and robust YTD.
    • Several stocks with decent dividend yields (UBA 5.96%, FIDELITYBK 5.48%, DANGCEM 6.27%) are flashing technical sell signals, suggesting defensive rotation or pre-dividend "sell the news".
• Unusual Volume Movers:
  • FTNCOCOA: Price up 10%, volume 7x average — likely aggressive accumulation; recent momentum signals further upside but potential for volatility remains high.
  • NB (Nigerian Brew): 234% volume surge, now above 15DMA, but muted price action (+0.35%) could mean distribution—watch for breakout or exhaustion.
  • NASCON: Volume up 407% with a +7.9% gain; institutional interest apparent, also confirmed by high RSI (>80).
• Turnover Dip: Despite higher volumes, lower turnover (₦19.9bn vs ₦23.75bn) suggests increased trading in lower-priced stocks, possibly signaling speculative activity or rotation out of blue chips into smaller caps.
• Advance-Decline Trends: Advancers lead decliners substantially, suggesting underlying support, but the nearly equal split in volume direction (up for 68, down for 71) hints at increased stock-picking and developing divergences.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREW (CHAMPION): Appearing on both gainer and loser tables with an RSI of 69.9 (approaching overbought), bullish MACD, yet also significant price volatility. Its +136.7% YTD run-up may be peaking—possible candidate for profit-taking or a one-day reversal trap.
• FIDELITYBK: Flashing a bearsih momentum (cross below 15DMA) despite high YTD growth (+11.8%), institutional interest, and a high volume spike. Mixed technicals urge caution—could be rotation ahead of key corporate events or dividend actions.
• NASCON: RSI at 81.8 (deeply overbought), but with institutional buying and high volatility, the risk/reward is now skewed; short-term traders may consider scaling back, while long-termers may await pullbacks.

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Value Ideas)

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Commanded 20.17% of institutional trade value, with a bullish RSI of 70.7—a major institutional favorite and a clear sector leader.
• FIDELITYBK: 21.16% of institutional volume, but technicals weaken—a warning that institutional rotation or short-term profit-taking could be underway.
• NASDAQ, NASCON: Institutional interest evident with high volume, price spikes, and positive technicals.

Notable Overlaps & Key Insights

• BETAGLAS: Dominates across gainer, YTD, and momentum tables—trend followers may ride, but beware frothy RSI.
• FTNCOCOA: Appears as both YTD and daily gainer, unusual volume play; potential short-term catalyst or pump-and-dump setup—traders beware.
• NB, FCMB: Bullish cross with high yield, attracting both momentum and conservative capital.
• AIICO, FIDELITYBK, UBA: All offer income potential but are short-term technical bears—patience or hedging advised.

Trade Activity & Participation Analysis

• Institutions: Only 37.05% of trades by count, but driving 70.73% of volume and a whopping 90.64% of value—showing clear preference for block trades, likely in large caps (ZENITHBANK, FIDELITYBK, ACCESSCORP, and NASCON).
• Retail: Dominating trade count (62.95%), but just 29.27% of volume; retail flow more scattered, favoring diverse mid/smaller cap opportunities.
• Pattern: 3 of the 5 most-traded stocks by both institutional and retail are in banking (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, UBA) signifying broad interest but diverging strategies (block trades vs. active swing trading).
• Takeaway: Watch for potential volatility and swing opportunities in stocks with both institutional clustering and high retail activity, especially if technical momentum aligns (case in point: ZENITHBANK and FIDELITYBK).

Monday Special: Last Week’s Performance in Review

Last week, the market sustained its bullish posture, with leading names like BETAGLAS, UPL, PRESCO, and CHAMPION notching strong double-digit gains over 5 days. These coincided with technical breakouts (high RSI, MACD cross), while turnover shifts and rising volumes in second-tier stocks signaled growing speculative interest. The breadth remained supportive, but profit warnings for overbought leaders are timely.

Tuesday/Wednesday Special — YTD Top Gainers & Losers

Suggestions for Traders

• Momentum traders: Focus on BETAGLAS, NEIMETH, and NB for trend continuation (monitor for RSI > 80 pullbacks).
• Mean-reversion & contrarians: Consider GREENWETF or SUNUASSUR for rebound setups (very low RSI).
• Yield seekers: Favor high-yielding stocks with technical strength (FCMB, NB), but avoid chasing names on bearish technicals (Fidelity, UBA) until a base is found.
• Caution: Avoid stocks with both high RSI and declining turnover/volume—these are prone to sudden spikes and quick corrections.
• Small caps/unusual volume: FTNCOCOA, NASCON — trade with tight stops as this may be transient accumulation or a pump-and-dump episode. Scale in/out rationally.
• Institutional cluster momentum: Names with both high institutional value and bullish signals (ZENITHBANK) may see sustained flows, but monitor for sudden reversals if institutional trades dry up.
• Keep an eye on sector rotation: Declining banking/financials and rising food/palm oil/beverages suggest short-term sector swings.

For more detailed analysis, on InfoWARE Market Data Terminal <NSEPERF> <GO>
On InfoWARE Finance Mobile App (Android, iPhone & iPad, Windows Phone and Windows 8/10), "Top Gainers & Losers"