NGX Daily Market Summary: Wednesday, August 13, 2025

The Nigerian equities market dipped modestly today as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) edged -0.13% lower to close at 146,055.89, though maintaining an impressive 41.37% YTD return. Trading activity moderated sharply, with total market turnover sliding by -84.04% to ₦3.61B and trading volume dropping to 366.37M shares, compared to the previous day’s 1.24B. Market breadth, however, remains robust (2.46x), signaling underlying optimism as advancers continue to outpace decliners. Unusually high volume spikes in select insurance and financial stocks hint at persistent sectoral momentum, while YTD top gainers reveal insurance companies as standout performers.

Key Takeaways

• Strong Market Breadth: Advancers (59) far outnumber decliners (24), yielding a positive 2.46x breadth ratio even as the main index posts a slight dip.
• Top Movers:
  • Top Gainer: CAVERTON closed at ₦7.92, up +10.00%.
  • Top Loser: FTNCOCOA slipped -10.00% to close at ₦6.93.
  • Other notable gainers: PRESTIGE (+10.0%) with an exceptionally high RSI of 86.74 (potentially overbought), TRIPPLEG (+10%), and LEARNAFRCA (+10%).
  • Biggest losers: THOMASWY (-10%) showing elevated RSI (70.4), UPDC (-7.94%) with an extremely overbought signal (RSI = 89.23), and BERGER (-6.16%)—which also features in the YTD losers table.
  • Volume leaders (unusual activity): UNIVINSURE (+485.8% vol), LASACO (+511.5% vol), JAPAULGOLD (+217.4% vol).
• Turnover Implosion: Substantial drop in traded value hints at major institutional buy/sell programs appearing to wrap up or pause—a likely signal for consolidation or waning near-term momentum. Caution for large-volume entrants.
• Sectoral Rotation: Insurance and financial services dominate both YTD gainers and top unusual volume signals.

YTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers

Unusual Volume (Top 5)

Bullish Momentum: 15DMA Crossovers

Bearish Momentum: 15DMA Breakdown

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION: Despite a -9.8% YTD drop and moderate RSI (68.47), the stock exhibits a bullish MACD—potential early reversal.
• THOMASWY: Down -10% today but with an elevated RSI (70.4), signaling overbought levels despite weakness—a classic divergence that can precede a short-term bounce.
• BERGER: Notably featured as both a daily and YTD loser, yet its RSI is neutral and MACD histogram just turned less negative, suggesting potential bottoming.
• UPDC: Down -7.94% today but with an exceedingly high RSI (89.23), usually a sign of impending mean reversion or short-term exhaustion.

Sector Heatmap: Performance & Activity

Dividend-Yield / Beta Matrix – Defensive Stock Watchlist

Implication: VITAFOAM and AFRIPRUD stand out for more defensive, lower-beta income holdings, both flashing bullish technical signals—a blend of growth and yield in today’s unsettled market.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional investors account for 20.17% of daily trade value, signaling ongoing smart-money accumulation despite near-term weakness.
• ACCESSCORP & STERLINGNG: Consistently feature in both institutional and retail top traded lists—watch for continued rotation, particularly in STERLINGNG given its +238.9% surge in volume.

Suggestions for Traders & Investors

• Momentum Watch: Insurance stocks remain dominant among YTD gainers (notably MBENEFIT, MANSARD, CORNERST, VERITASKAP, PRESTIGE). Persistent high RSI (>80) in many insurance names suggests staying invested with tight stop-losses and partial profit-taking for those already in positions.
• Caution: Turnover collapse points to possible short-term pause; avoid entering large trades in thinly traded stocks without clear volume confirmation.
• Contrarian Play: Stocks with high RSI but falling price (e.g., UPDC, THOMASWY) could attract short-term bargain hunting or pairs trade opportunities.
• Income/Defensive Play: Consider high-dividend, low-beta stocks like VITAFOAM and AFRIPRUD—particularly since both signal bullish reversals above their 15DMA.
• Institutional Flow: Top 5 institutional stocks (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, UBA, STERLINGNG, ARADEL) gauge sector focus. Persistent institutional activity is a bullish medium-term signal even in days of broad turnover drops.
• Unusual Volume Breakouts: UNIVINSURE, LASACO, and VERITASKAP (insurance) have spectacular volume spikes—usually a precursor to continued volatility in coming sessions.

Market Trades Activity Analytics

• Retail vs Institutional: Institutional investors constitute 41.8% of total trade count but dominate volume (77.8%) and value (86.1%). Retail is still highly active by count (58.2%) but only 22% by volume, reflecting small-lot enthusiasm.
  Retail Focus: UBA, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, ZENITHBANK, and MTNN top the retail trading list—note most overlap with institutional flows and are in heavily weighted index sectors (Banking, Telecoms).
• Correlations: Stocks with heavy overlaps in both high retail and institutional flows—like UBA, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK—tend to be barometers for overall market sentiment and liquidity shifts.
• Trading Opportunity: Liquidity and price discovery likely to be best in stocks such as UBA, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK for both short-term traders and larger investors seeking to minimize slippage.
• Volatility Watch: Several high-volume insurance stocks (LASACO, VERITASKAP, UNIVINSURE) have technical momentum with strong retail activity, making them ripe for short-term speculation.

Hidden Insights & Competitive Edge

• Risk-On Yet Defensive: The strong insurance YTD run is now drawing both speculative and institutional capital, but sky-high RSIs indicate the next leg up may be more selective. Watch for early distribution in outliers with fading volume.
• Bullish Dividend Stocks: VITAFOAM and AFRIPRUD, showing simultaneous bullish crossovers and strong defensive traits, are rare finds in today’s market, offering both income and potential capital appreciation.
• Contrarian Volume Surge: LASACO's record volume and positive price action indicate institutional repositioning—an early sign of sector rotation rather than mere retail hype.
• Institutional Beta Shift: Banking sector (ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA) may be close to bottoming; monitor for a sentiment reversal as retail sellers exit and institutions quietly accumulate.

Stay nimble and pay attention to subtle volume and sector shifts; hidden institutional accumulation and technical divergences can foreshadow enduring trend reversals or continuations.