NGX Daily Market Summary – Monday, August 25, 2025

Market Recap: The NGX All Share Index (ASI) finished +0.31% higher at 141,004.14, pushing its stellar Year-To-Date return to +37.08%. However, today’s upbeat close was tempered by a significant decline in turnover (traded value down -38.23% to ₦9.47B vs. ₦15.33B prior), and a narrower volume of 568.76M shares traded (-18.5% vs. previous day). Nonetheless, market breadth was positive at 1.79x, with 43 advancers to 24 decliners, suggesting a moderately strong underlying sentiment as we pick up from last week.

Previous Week Highlights Snapshot

Last week, the market maintained a bullish bias, with the ASI recording a string of positive closes, driven largely by momentum in financials and insurance sectors. Volatility picked up in select large-caps while sectoral divergence remained, maintaining a robust YTD trajectory. This continued upward momentum is notable against a backdrop of profit-taking in some previous hot-spots and a cautious uptrend in new favorites, signaling a possible "sector rotation" in play.

Significant Trends in Market Breadth

• Positive breadth: 43 advancers vs. 24 decliners (1.79x breadth), signaling an overall bullish undertone in this session.
• However, trade turnover and volume fell notably, indicating that today’s bounce lacked conviction from larger players—a flag for possible indecision or wait-and-see among institutions.
• Of 140+ stocks, volumes were up in 61 and down in 79 stocks, showing selective participation—this is important to monitor as it may precede a breadth contraction if the trend persists.

Top Gainers & Losers – Stock-Specific Highlights

• SIAMLETF40: Top gainer today (+10.00%), RSI 79.8 (highly overbought), ongoing momentum for both today and rolling 5 days.
• JULIUS BERGER: Not only a price leader today, but also saw +619% surge in traded volume (vs. 90D average)—a potential institutionally backed breakout.
• MERGROWTH ETF: The biggest loser both today (-9.70%) and on a YTD basis (-84.03%), indicating deep-rooted selling.
• CADBURY & UPL: Both among top losers today and also feature on the YTD losers table—signaling sustained negative momentum that warrants caution.
• VERITASKAP: Strong price gain (+9.60%), huge volume increase (+148% of 90-day average), and bullish momentum crossover—all point toward rising speculative interest.

Momentum and Pattern Analysis

• Bullish momentum (15DMA cross ↑): JBERGER, CUTIX, VERITASKAP, AFRIPRUD and others triggered new short-term "buy" signals. Especially notable: JBERGER and VERITASKAP, both also with unusual volumes and price spikes—clear institutional footprints.
• Bearish momentum (15DMA cross ↓): CADBURY, UPL, ABBEYBDS, TANTALIZER, NEWGOLD slipped below key moving averages with weak volume, confirming their spot in top declining lists.
• RSI Extremes: SIAMLETF40’s RSI 79.8 confirms, with its monthly performance, that it is potentially overextended—caution for new buyers.
  On bearish side: No stocks triggered deeply oversold RSI (<30), suggesting bear pressure is more gradual, not panicked.
• Unusual Volumes: Stocks like AUSTINLAZ (+843%), JBERGER (+619%), VERITASKAP (+148%), and AFRIPRUD (+114%) all experienced volume surges, often telegraphing major interest shifts. Many of these align with bullish momentum signals.
• Currency Headwind: The naira slipped -0.18% against the USD to 1,537—potentially supportive for exporters and multinational earnings but may cloud investor sentiment toward consumer sectors.

YTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers (Monday Recap)

Contrarian Signals: Hidden/Conflicting Indicators

• JULIUS BERGER – While its RSI is below overbought (49.2), today's bullish MACD crossover and extraordinary volume suggest that the uptrend is gaining new legs. This could be a classic "breakout from consolidation"—valuable for traders seeking big moves, though profit-taking risk rises if volume fades.
• AFRIPRUD – With high dividend yield (1.27%), an unusually large volume day, and a new short-term bullish signal (15DMA ↗), yet with a relatively low beta (0.64). Defensive, yield-oriented, but with enough technical/flow momentum to interest swing traders.
• MERGROWTH ETF – Despite huge price drops (-84% YTD), its RSI and MACD are not deeply oversold—hints that a short-term reversion pop is possible for risk-seeking contrarians, but long-term trend remains negative.
• VERITASKAP – Already well above its 15DMA and with ballooning volume, but only modestly above neutral RSI (54.9), suggesting it’s at the early phase of a trend—might have further room, especially if speculative flows continue.
• High-yield defensive in momentum table: AFRIPRUD and CUTIX (Div yields: 1.27% & 6.52%)—both in bullish momentum signals list. Defensive plays starting to draw flows amid volatility.

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Yield Opportunities

Comment: AFRIPRUD and CUTIX display unusually defensive yield with fresh bullish signals, attractive for yield-seeking investors wanting measured NGX risk.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Accounted for 20.17% of all institutional trade value, with both retail and institutional investors actively trading. This stock is the focal point for institutional flows; watch for clues of asset allocation or sector rotation.
• FCMB: Institutional trades also surged (104/total 1580), with trade value over ₦1.1B and double normal volume, suggesting fund flows or block trades.
• JBERGER: Caught institutional attention—volume today was over 6x its 90D average. Price surge was likely fund-driven and not simply retail speculation.
• ACCESSCORP, UBA: Rounded out top institutional trades. All five institutional "favorites” are major financials or infra-plays.
• Retail flows: Heavy on MTNN, ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, GTCO – largely financials and telecoms, with banks as clear liquidity hot spots.

Retail vs. Institutional Market Activity Insights

• Though retail accounts for most trade count, institutional investors dominate volume and value, driving direction.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional):
  • ZENITHBANK (nearly ₦600M; 8.4M shares)
  • UBA
  • FCMB (standout: 100M+ shares, ₦1.1B, huge block-like trades)
  • ARADEL
  • ACCESSCORP
• Top 5 Most Traded (Retail):
  • MTNN
  • ZENITHBANK (again—broad appeal!)
  • UBA
  • ACCESSCORP
  • GTCO
• Pattern: Banks dominate both retail and institutional trade interest, but institutions set the tone for block trade direction.
• Unusual institutional activity (JBERGER, FCMB, ZENITHBANK) often preceded strong price moves, a useful tell for traders to watch order flows, not just prices!

Trader Guidance & Hidden Insights

• Momentum buys: Monitor SIAMLETF40, VERITASKAP, JULIUS BERGER—each with fundamental support from volume, coupled with bullish technical patterns. However, SIAMLETF40’s overbought RSI suggests only advanced, high-conviction traders should chase.
• Bullish dividend yields: AFRIPRUD and CUTIX offer potential "low beta + income” setups with fresh momentum breakouts. Compelling for defensive traders seeking participation without heavy beta risk.
• Bears beware: UPL, CADBURY, GREENWETF, NEWGOLD, ABBEYBDS—linked by price declines, bearish technical moves (15DMA breakdowns), and no compelling counter-flows. Potential short/avoid zones unless a reversal signal emerges.
• Contrarian edge: Watch JBERGER’s next sessions. Today’s breakout is "textbook” post-consolidation, yet volume and MACD combo indicate room for further extension before overbought exhaustion.
• For short-term swing traders: Stocks with outsized volume moves and fresh technical overlays (like JULIUS BERGER, VERITASKAP) often extend for 1–3 days before reverting—consider trailing stops to lock profit.
• Sector rotation watch: Evidence of capital shuffling between consumer/ETF names (losing steam) and insurance, financials, and infra names (ascending) — a classic late-stage bull market phenomenon.
• Macro risk: The naira's continued slide might prompt foreign investor caution, but exporters and USD-earning stocks could be insulated.
• Caution flag: Market-wide breadth is healthy but turnover/volume is falling—if institutional volume does not return, this rally could stall.