NGX Daily Market Summary – Wednesday, November 5, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) slid -1.19% to 152,629.61, turning in its weakest day this month, though the YTD performance still reflects robust gains at 46.17%. Market turnover decelerated sharply, dropping by -20.54% to ₦14.34B as trade activity and volumes cooled. Market breadth remained deeply negative (0.39x), with decliners (49) outnumbering advancers (19)—a clear signal of broad risk-off sentiment and declining conviction. While the Naira appreciated modestly (up 0.22% vs. USD), heavyweights and banking names faced selling pressure, some on unusually high volumes, painting a technical picture of tactical risk reduction across sectors as the overall market entered a pullback.

Key Trends & Market Breadth:

• Market Breadth: Decliners dominated, with breadth at just 0.39x (19 advancers vs. 49 decliners). This ratio confirms a market-wide selloff rather than isolated weakness.
• Turnover & Volume: Market turnover fell -20.54% to ₦14.34B (from ₦18.05B yesterday), echoing risk aversion and lighter institutional commitment. Trading volume also dropped to 501.2M (-22.3%).
  • Institutionals controlled 88.42% of trade value (despite only 35% of trade count), further highlighting the "big money" rebalancing out of key positions.
• Unusual Volume: Banks were notably active: Sterling Financial (+220.9% volume surge), Zenith Bank (+126.4% volume), ASO Savings (+284.9%), UACN (+173.9%). These moves often foreshadow shifting institutional or large-retail sentiment and may presage larger trend shifts.
• Sectoral Weakness: Premium banking and diversified industrials, alongside the NGX30 and Premium indices, triggered fresh bearish technical signals (see Sector Heatmap below).

Top Gainers & Losers – Single Day Standouts:

• NCR and LEGENDINT: Stand out in both top gainers and the YTD top gainers, supported by RSI above 40 and positive MACD; momentum remains favorable (short-term MAs above long-term).
• SKYAVN and BETAGLAS appear on both top losers and YTD laggards, with SKYAVN’s RSI sharply lower, signifying emerging oversold conditions.
• VETGRIF30 (ETF) is notable for crossing above the 15DMA (bullish momentum) with a sharp single-day gain.

Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Down, Volatility Up: A -20.54% drop in market turnover amidst heavy decliners often preludes further choppiness—traders should expect continued two-way volatility with potential for snap-back rallies as some oversold technicals emerge.
• Unusual Volumes—Banking Focus: Sterling Financial, Zenith Bank, GTCO, and Access Holdings posted volumes well above historical averages (2-3x 90D avg). This suggests either institutional repositioning or pre-earnings speculation but also exposes these names to short-term mean reversion risk.
• Bullish Momentum Overlaps: VETGRIF30, MERVALUE, LEGENDINT: All crossed above the 15DMA and are top daily gainers—momentum players will watch for follow-through, though profit-taking risk rises as RSI nears 70 in spots.
• Bearish Momentum/Breakdowns: AFRIPRUD, WEMABANK, RTBRISCOE, CILEASING, TRANSCORP, MTNN, WAPCO all fell below their 15DMA—with some also showing persistent value outflows. When both technicals and volume confirm weakness, support levels can crack swiftly.
• Contrarian Watch: SKYAVN is a large YTD gainer yet among top daily/YTD losers. Its RSI crashing down hints at deepening correction (possible "catch-the-knife" bounce ahead?), but high beta and sector cyclicality suggest caution.

Contrarian Signals

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunities

• Watch for reversal in AFRIPRUD—income with downside protection. But, don’t rush until signals turn positive.
• Multiple high-yield stocks are showing bearish momentum, indicating "yield traps" for casual investors.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Commanded a leading 20.17% of institutional trade value. Trading volume was more than double 90D average. Indicates major fund rotation (likely profit booking and/or rebalancing out of banks short term). If institutional selling persists tomorrow, expect sector drag to continue—especially as it aligns with a broader bearish sectoral signal.
• MTNN: Appears heavily traded by both retail and institutional investors but closed -6.32%—distribution by large players is outweighing any retail dip-buying attempt.

Trader Suggestions & Opportunities

• For short-term traders: Focus on ultra-liquid, high-vol stocks with technical reversals: NCR, LEGENDINT, VETGRIF30 for breakout continuation, but watch for profit-taking.
• Income/Hedged investors: Track AFRIPRUD for bottoming; if reversal forms, can provide low-beta and yield cushion.
• Contrarians: Take note of severe drop in SKYAVN—but only initiate after stabilization (current momentum still negative).
• Caution: Market is whippy with risk-off tone; avoid leveraged long positions in anything showing new breakdowns (TRANSCORP, CILEASING, MTNN).

Year To Date (YTD) Top Gainers & Losers

Market Activity/Trades Summaries Analysis

• Institutional vs Retail: 35.19% of trades (Inst.) drove 88.42% of value, while retail made up 65% of counts but barely 12% of aggregate value—continuing the institutional dominance theme.
  • Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional): Zenith Bank (lead), Access Holdings, GTCO, Aradel & MTNN. Pattern: Large-cap banks dominate institutional flows, synchronizing with high-vol spikes and bearish price action—suggesting net outflows and increased volatility ahead.
  • Top 5 Most Traded (Retail): MTNN, GTCO, Zenith Bank, FCMB, AccessCorp—retail activity also clustered in blue-chip financials but with less volume per trade, showing "dip-buying" attempts against the broader institutional selling.
• Hidden Opportunity: If institutions continue to exit, short-term traders may capitalize on volatility spikes and fast rebounds—but must remain alert to failed ‘bear trap’ scenarios. Retail’s attempt to catch falling knives in banks and MTNN could be painful if broader selling persists.

Summary Thought

Bottom line: The current market composite is signaling risk-off discipline among institutions, widespread distribution, sector-wide technical breakdowns, and negative breadth. For the nimble, this offers volatility windows and quick-swing trading opportunities. For the longer-term, await stabilization of technical signals, especially in high-yield, low-beta defensives like AFRIPRUD. Contrarians may eye deep YTD winners now in oversold correction (SKYAVN), but should not be early. Expect more choppiness; confirm all trades with volume, technical reversals, and, ideally, a return of broad market breadth.